Flexible Diplomacy: Peng Liyuan Should Revisit US

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 24 March 2014
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Chantavy. Edited by Brent Landon.
Four years ago, First Lady Michelle Obama went alone to visit Mexico and Haiti; now, accompanied by her mother and two daughters, she is building flexible diplomacy in Beijing, Xi’an and Chengdu. When Xi Jinping greeted Mrs. Obama, he deliberately emphasized the importance of China-U.S. relations. He expressed his treasured friendship with Obama, expressed excitement for The Hague European Summit, and praised the new U.S. ambassador to China, Max Baucus.

The first lady traveling abroad is an important part of all foreign affairs. Although this action has no involvement in the arrangement of foreign exchange policies, it can play a unique function. Whether she is just visiting or inspecting China's affairs, it often presents a gentle and friendly image. Mrs. Obama’s visit to China has no substantial impact on China-U.S. relations, but it helps ease tension on the shared atmosphere of China and the U.S.

The first lady traveling abroad is unlike the head of state traveling abroad because it usually focuses on soft issues rather than politics. In the six years she has been in the White House, Mrs. Obama has not shown interest in politics; she has shown interest in children's weight, healthy diets, exercise and care for military dependents, among other issues. In this trip to China, she avoided human rights and trade issues, focusing only on cultural and educational exchange. Washington's diplomatic push by [Mrs. Obama] could easily be met with goodwill by the Chinese people. This would be helpful for easing China’s public dissatisfaction with the United States and adding momentum to the construction of new relations between them.

Xi Jinping and President Obama further explored the concept of new relations among the two countries in last June’s southern California estate meeting in Sunnyvale; however, there is still a conflict of interest regarding the East and South China Seas. When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited Beijing this February, he claimed that China-U.S. relations could be amiable and constructive, but he could not deny the fact that bilateral relations have fallen to their lowest in a decade. Ever since Beijing designated the new East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) at the end of last year, the battle between Chinese and U.S. media and public opinion has escalated. Additionally, there’s the dispute over South China’s “Nine-Dash Line,” Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama again, and China remaining neutral in the Ukrainian crisis. China-U.S. relations do not seem to have the constructive friendship that they imagined.

The Ukrainian crisis made Beijing realize that Crimea’s incorporation into Russia may be the beginning of a long spout of antagonism between the U.S. and Russia. During a video with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, Xi stated that “The contingent Ukrainian crisis has its inevitability.” This metaphor refers to the West supporting the Ukrainian opposition pushing its luck only to fall into today’s predicament, as well as to Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressing the need for a political solution. While urging for peace on both sides, U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi has proposed three actions: the establishment of an international coordination mechanism, the prevention of all parties from taking actions that could worsen the situation, and using assistance from international financial organizations to help Ukraine.

The Crimean referendum has also kept Washington on its toes. To meet strategic and practical needs, Putin may seek to exert strength in other regions of the world. Russia has the choice to either strengthen its relationship with Iraq or deepen strategic cooperation with China. In a recent speech in Congress, Putin deliberately expressed his gratitude to China, immediately exposing a clue. If Russia withdraws from its April 2010 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with the U.S., it will undoubtedly compel the United States to rethink Europe’s military deployment and strategic layout. The competition between China-Russia relations and U.S.-Russia relations will be more complicated, and the balanced strategy between U.S. and the Asia-Pacific region may therefore collapse.

Because U.S. military funding is stretched and endless regional conflicts are faced, Washington has no choice but to show goodwill to China. Obama kept silent about the Beijing legislature’s victories concerning the Japan Day and Nanjing Massacre Memorial Day issues. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a rare statement that “The Abe cabinet has no intention to review [the Kono Statement]" and that he is “deeply pained to think of the comfort women who experienced immeasurable pain and suffering, a feeling [he shares] equally with [his] predecessors,” obviously implying America.

International relations “offensive realism” theorist and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer recently pointed out in a New York Times article that Obama's decision to impose sanctions in Russia will not help solve the Ukraine issue, but will create more trouble in the future. This “trouble,” that is, the trouble that emerges from U.S. core interests, can prevent hopes for U.S.-Russia cooperation in dealing with Iran and Afghanistan, and China’s military rise.

Eleanor Roosevelt in World War II, Jacqueline Kennedy in the 1960s, and Hillary Clinton in the 1990s were all vivid examples of soft diplomacy. Mrs. Obama’s role of goodwill ambassador to China this trip makes up for her absence last year, when she could not personally meet First Lady Peng Liyuan. Even though her soft demands will not easily turn the complex China-U.S. relations around, they will help improve China’s negative public perception of the United States, easing tension in the political climate between China and the U.S.

Since China and the U.S. constitute the world's most important bilateral relations, the European Union attaches great importance to learning their personal relationship. Beijing might consider having Peng Liyuan pay Michelle Obama a return visit to establish “first lady relations." With visits, exchanges and private friendship as well as by enhancing mutual understanding, trust and improving their impression on the public, they will establish hand-in-hand cooperation and face global and regional issues together.


4年前單獨訪問墨西哥與海地的美國第一夫人蜜雪兒,目前偕同母親和兩個女兒正在北京、西安、成都進行柔性外交。習近平接待蜜雪兒時,刻意強調中美關係的重要,表示珍惜與歐巴馬的私誼,期待荷蘭海牙的習歐峰會,也盛讚美國新任駐中國大使包可士。

西方國家第一夫人出訪,是整體外交工作的重要部分,它雖無涉外交政策布局,卻能發揮獨特功能。第一夫人不論獨自出訪或隨訪,往往都展現了溫和而友善的形象。蜜雪兒訪問中國,對中美關係或無實質影響,但有助於緩和中美關係緊繃的氣氛。

第一夫人出訪不同於國家元首的國事訪問,通常不碰觸政治問題,而僅專注於軟性議題。蜜雪兒在白宮的6年期間,未曾過問政治,只關心兒童體重、飲食健康、運動或照顧軍人眷屬等議題。她此行中國迴避人權與經貿問題,只聚焦文化和教育交流。華府推動的夫人外交,很容易博得中國民眾的好感,有助於緩解中國輿論不滿美國的情緒,增添中美建構新型大國關係的動力。

習近平去年6月在加州莊園會晤歐巴馬總統,曾闡述中美新型大國關係的理念,然而雙邊關係仍困在東海與南海利益分歧不斷碰撞。今年2月美國務卿凱瑞訪問北京,雖聲稱中美關係友好而具建設性,卻無法掩飾雙邊關係已陷入十年來最低潮的事實。從去年底北京劃定東海防空識別區開始,歷經中美媒體和輿論戰升級、南海九段線爭議、歐巴馬再次會晤達賴,至當前中國對烏克蘭危機秉持中立,中美關係似乎沒有想像中的友好而具建設性。

烏克蘭危機讓北京意識到,克里米亞併入俄羅斯可能是美俄漫長對抗的開端。習近平與普丁視訊時,既用「烏克蘭情勢偶然中有必然」一句話暗喻西方支持烏克蘭反對派未見好即收,才陷入今日窘境,又對歐巴馬和德國總理梅克爾強調「政治解決爭端」的必要,更飭令駐聯合國大使劉結一提出解決烏克蘭危機的3項建議(建立國際協調機制、各方停止進一步惡化情勢的動作、國際金融組織著手援助烏克蘭),展現了兩面勸和的姿態。

克里米亞公投結果也讓華府警惕,普丁基於戰略與現實需求,或在全球其他地區尋求平衡力量。加強與伊朗關係或深化與中國的戰略合作,會是俄羅斯的選擇。普丁最近在國會演講刻意對中國表達謝意,即露出端倪。俄羅斯如果退出美俄2010年4月簽署的《中程核武裁減條約》,勢必迫使美國重新思考歐洲的兵力部署與戰略布局,中俄與美俄強權競逐為此將更趨複雜,美國亞太再平衡戰略也可能因此折翼。

美國防軍費原本捉襟見肘,面對層出不窮的區域衝突,華府不得不對中國釋出善意。歐巴馬日前對北京立法確立「中國人民抗戰勝利紀念日」與「南京大屠殺死難同胞公祭日」默不作聲,本月中旬日本首相安倍晉三罕見表態「不打算修改河野談話」並「全面繼承歷代內閣對歷史認識的立場」,顯見背後美方著墨很深。

國際關係「攻勢現實主義」理論大師、芝加哥大學教授米爾斯海默最近在《紐約時報》撰文指出,歐巴馬決定制裁俄羅斯的決策錯誤,它無助於解決烏克蘭問題,未來還會製造更多麻煩。文中所謂的「麻煩」,即從美國核心利益出發,期望美俄合作應對伊朗及阿富汗問題,並共同防堵中國的軍事崛起。

無論是二戰期間小羅斯福總統夫人艾蓮娜、1960年代甘迺迪總統夫人賈桂琳或柯林頓總統夫人希拉蕊,都把軟性外交發揮得淋漓盡致。蜜雪兒此行中國扮演親善大使的角色,算是彌補去年歐習會期間未能親自接待中國第一夫人彭麗媛的遺憾,她的軟性訴求雖不易扭轉複雜的中美關係,但有助於改善大陸民眾對美國的負面看法,有利和緩中美間緊繃的政治氣氛。

中美既已構成當今全球最重要的雙邊關係,習歐都非常重視兩人間的私人關係,北京似可考慮彭麗媛回訪蜜雪兒,建立兩國「第一夫人關係」,以互訪、交流與增進私誼,增進相互了解與互信,改善兩國民眾相互的印象,將有助於建立兩國攜手合作,共同面對全球和區域問題。
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