Obama's Midterm Election Disaster

The U.S. president can no longer motivate his supporters. New surveys forecast a victory for the Republicans. The Congressional midterm election in November could paralyze Obama.

Barack Obama still has 1,000 days in the White House. But if the augurs — or nowadays, pollsters — are proved to be correct with their new figures, the de facto end could come as soon as November. That is when the midterm election will take place, and it is very possible that the Republicans, who already have a solid majority in the House of Representatives, could also win the Senate. Result: The president cannot govern against both houses, most certainly not this president who, over the last five years, has tried to enforce his agenda against the opposition rather than with them.

Even The New York Times, which sometimes writes like a government institution of the White House, has rumors of a “midterm disaster.” Are supporters leaving Obama in droves? The matter is more complicated than that. It is not about preference, but rather voter turnout. To put it simply: The coalition which helped Obama to victory in 2012 has become tired of voting. Obama lies in front with female voters (with 11 percentage points), male voters (24), Hispanic voters (44) and of course black voters (87). The problem for the president is that these exact groups are far less enthusiastic about the ballot box in the midterm election than white men.

Take the Hispanics, for example: Their participation in midterm elections is a third lower than that of white people, who tend to prefer the Republicans. The Republicans are fundamentally more motivated anyway, but in this case the optimism factor is added. According to survey data from the Pew Research Center, 55 percent of Republicans believe that their party will do better in 2014 than in 2012. Only 43 percent of Democrats give such a friendly estimation of the political climate.

Crucial in all American elections for the last generation are the so-called Independents, or swing voters, who vote one way in one election then the other way in the next. Here the picture looks very bleak by now for the president’s party. There is a gaping hole of more or less 40 percentage points between the groups that sway toward the Republicans and toward the far-behind pro-Democrats. There is also a degree of disillusionment on the part of young men (ages 18-34), who gave Obama a solid block vote in 2008 as well as 2012. Just like in Europe, Obama was able to give them high expectations, which inevitably had to collide with the realities of his performance.

Obama’s approval rating (in other words, number of “likes”) in the early stages was at 70 percent among young men, reports Pew researcher Andrew Kohut. Now it has fallen to 49 percent. He has one comfort to give to the Democrats, however: The voters find them more likeable (47 percent) than the Republicans (35 percent).

Nevertheless, a millstone by the name of Obama hangs around the neck of the Democrats. Their “dislike” quota has almost consistently increased since his re-election. His quota is currently 10 points higher than in November 2012, when he was re-elected.

An old phrase, credited to former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, is applicable here: “Twenty-four hours is a long time in politics.” It might well be true that over the course of the next seven months Obama will be able to transform both his handicaps — health care reform and the economic cycle — into plus factors. On March 31, the application deadline for “Obamacare” expired; by then 7 million Americans had applied. If their experience with the general insurance is good, it could be highly significant for the Democrats. Ditto, if economic growth remains stable and unemployment recedes.

There is a third factor, however, which should make the Democratic strategists nervous. Normally, foreign policy crises strengthen the president’s position; the Crimea and Ukraine crises have not accomplished this. There is obviously nothing for Obama to gain in the area of foreign policy. Therefore, the key question remains: Who can better mobilize their clientele? Half a year before the election, the answer appears to be the Republicans.