US Intelligence and War: A History of Mistakes

America sounds the alarm: Russian troops on the borders of Ukraine, ready to invade. Or not? When wrong predictions (do not) alter the course of history …

At this point, according to the Pentagon, all that remains is Vladimir Putin’s decision. He will either approve the invasion of eastern Ukraine in a few hours or, if not, the thousands of Russian soldiers amassed along the border will remain at their posts, a menacing presence to Kiev.

According to American sources, there are at least 50,000 troops, many more than the 20,000 previously reported. For the Ukrainians, the deployed troops are even bigger — at least 100,000. “The number is not important,” an American senior official said to the press. “What counts is that, according to our information, the Russians are close to launching a possible attack. The means are ready; the logistics and supply routes are prepared; the troops are on alert. They are not there just for simple exercises, as the Kremlin has said.”

What Is U.S. intelligence Doing?

It therefore depends on Vladimir Putin, on his intentions, calculations and plans. For the Americans, reading the Russian president’s mind has become a difficult task. Having dismantled the Cold War intelligence network, the U.S. finds that it no longer has the tools to know what is actually happening in the top-secret rooms of the Muscovite palace. There are no moles, no analysts in the midst of discovering Putin’s next move; in the end, there are no predictions, only surprises.

Such as the current annexation of Crimea. On the morning of Feb. 28, the office of the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency sent a report to Congress, stating that Putin was just bluffing. In the afternoon, Russian soldiers had occupied strategic positions on the peninsula. Another American counterintelligence failure.

To learn more of the situation, the Americans have dedicated themselves to studying the Russian president’s body language. Maybe it is because of this that Putin, at every public event, tends to appear impassive. When there is no infiltrator, the most widely used digital surveillance apparatus in the world is of little use. Before, at the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the Russian secret service misled the West. Why should it not do so, in this case?

Obama’s Responsibility

The situation is made more complicated by Barack Obama’s political approach. Convinced that Russia was not a threat to American national security, he only joined in after the outbreak of the crisis. Now, his approach has changed, but he has not lost the sour taste in his mouth. It is true that he has indirectly warned Vladimir Putin from the White House, but it is also true that he does not seem to believe the leader of the Kremlin will take any further action. The political adversaries in the U.S. are asking: Are you sure there won’t be [any further action]?

In effect, Putin has said he does not intend to move the soldiers, in order to protect the Russian population living in eastern Ukraine from possible attack. In principle, that would be a no to invasion. Obama has kept his glass half-full; the generals at the Pentagon have observed the movements of the Russian troops via satellite; the intelligence agency has been mobilized to observe Putin’s thoughts. All are waiting for something to happen.

This set of factors could lead to an underestimation of the danger, as has happened many times before in American history. Yet another case of being schooled — in other words, another U.S. intelligence disaster.

The U.S. Intelligence Failure

There have been many in the past 70 years, starting with the attack on Pearl Harbor. Here is a list of the most notorious, most of which are attributed to the CIA.

– The Korean War, 1950

Soldiers of the People’s Army of North Korea crossed the 38th parallel and invaded the southern zone of the peninsula. The Americans were completely taken by surprise. Several days later, U.S. intelligence sent a report to President Truman stating that China would not intervene in the conflict. Several weeks later, 1 million Chinese soldiers were fighting against the Americans.

– The Hungarian Revolution, 1956

In January of that year, a CIA report confirmed that the Soviet Union controlled its empire in Eastern Europe without any opposition, and that this situation would continue for many years to come. Five months later, a revolt broke out in Poland, followed by the Hungarian Revolution in October and November, which cut off the Soviets with armed tanks. Washington was taken by surprise.

– Vietnam War, 1956 to 1975

The years of conflict that America has lost are numerous and filled with intelligence areas. The size of the enemy was underestimated, its capacity to fight and the solidity of its organization, the political analyses on the endurance of the regime and the South Vietnam army were mistaken. At the time, the generals wanted to tell Washington that everything was fine; however, they were frequently incapable of analyzing the situation, leading to mistakes. This all resulted in the Tet offensive in 1968, when the Americans were attacked by surprise by a force of 85,000 men throughout Vietnam, including Saigon.

– The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962

“The installation of missiles on Cuba is incompatible with current Soviet policy.” It seems incredible, but true: The CIA had no idea. In a report on Sept. 19, it reassured President Kennedy on Moscow’s possible moves. A month later, a CIA plane photographed Soviet missile batteries on Cuban soil. It was the start of a crisis that brought the U.S. and Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war.

– The Iranian Revolution, 1979

In August 1978, an agency report confirmed that “Tehran is not in a revolutionary or pre-revolutionary situation.” Six months later, Reza Pahlevi was forced to flee the country. His regime collapsed, clearing the way for Ayatollah Khomeini to come into power.

– The Invasion of Afghanistan, 1979

The CIA sent a memorandum to warn that the Soviet Union could decide to invade Afghanistan. But it was too late, as the military operation had already begun.

– The Invasion of Kuwait, 1990

On Aug. 2, Saddam Hussein’s armed tanks invaded the small state, confident that in a few hours, it would be conquered. The generals at the Pentagon, who were monitoring the concentration of Iraqi troops at the border in the preceding days, believed that the Rais of Baghdad was just bluffing.

– The Attack on the Twin Towers, 2001

The most notorious and painful failure by U.S. intelligence. In summer of 2001, the CIA was aware that two of the members of al-Qaida, who would [later] attack the twin towers, had been in the U.S. for several months, but it did not tell the FBI, which would have been able to step in to investigate them. The 2007 report confirmed this by pointing the finger at the then number one at Langley, George Tenet.

We must now add Crimea to this list. And what else?

*Editor’s note: The quotations in this article, accurately translated, could not be verified.