Does Obama Have the Energy To Deal with China Too?

Focus on Asia Stopped by Urgent Conflicts

With its hands full with Russia, it is unclear whether the U.S. really has the energy to deal with China at the same time. Ever since he entered office, President Obama has said that he will shift America’s focus to Asia, but reality is constantly forcing him to reconsider.

Today, when Obama sets off for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, it is a much delayed president coming to visit. Obama has cancelled the Asia trip two earlier times because of urgent events.

Despite this, Obama has declared a number of times that during his presidency the U.S. will devote more energy toward its relations with the Far East at the expense of Europe and the Middle East. Reality, however, has interrupted these plans. The civil war in Syria and the re-emerging negotiations with Iran about its nuclear energy program has caused a great deal of Obama’s attention in recent years to be directed toward the Middle East.

Increased Tension

Relations with Europe were supposed to more or less take care of themselves — up until the euro crisis began three years ago and the conflict in Ukraine last fall caused more than a slight breeze of Cold War to swell up again in the White House. Even if John Kerry managed a good deal, Europe has ended up considerably higher on Obama’s agenda than he had imagined.

In the meantime, tensions have also increased in Asia. China is more than willing to compete with the U.S. as a superpower. Obama has said that he accepts China being able to play a bigger role than it does today. What Obama hasn’t said is that he wants to make sure that China doesn’t grow too strong — but that is precisely what it’s about. China cannot be allowed to take on the role of the sole king of the hill in Asia.

China claims more and more aggressively its right to a number of islands in the Pacific, which has caused Beijing to end up on a collision course with all America’s allies in the area. In January, Japan’s prime minister described the mood between China and Japan as the same as between Germany and the United Kingdom just before World War I.

Nuclear Umbrella

Since Japan stands under the protection of America’s nuclear umbrella, Japanese troubles with China are also very much an American affair. But it’s becoming more difficult for Obama to be tough on China’s expansion plans while he simultaneously has his hands full with preventing Russia’s President Putin from violently taking hold of new areas in what used to be the Soviet Union. China, just like everyone else, can see that America’s military has weakened and that Obama does not harbor the same penchant for military force as his predecessor.

During his visit to the Philippines, however, he is expected to sign a settlement with the government in Manila that gives the U.S. the most extensive access to bases in the country since the U.S. closed down its naval base in Subic Bay in 1992.

Nuclear Weapon Test

North Korea is perhaps not Obama’s biggest headache but definitely the most persistent. Leading up to the president’s visit to South Korea, information from satellite images is indicating that North Korea can perform a fourth nuclear weapon test at the same time Obama will be visiting its neighbor to the south — undeniably a way for the dictator Kim Jong Un to attract Obama’s attention.

The last time North Korea had a nuclear weapon test was in February last year. Since the young and untested leader Kim Jong Un has taken over, relations between North Korea and the rest of the world have become all the more unstable. The already difficult-to-handle pariah of a country has become even more unpredictable.

The rest of the world’s nightmare is that North Korea succeeds in making its nuclear weapons small enough that their launchers will have enough power to send them to more distant destinations.