How Do We Prevent Obstacles Facing China-US Relations?

The latest round of China-U.S. strategic and economic negotiations, along with high-level cultural talks, took place on July 9 and July 10 in Beijing. Reports indicate that these meetings were intended to discuss a wide range of issues related to strategic interests such as exchange rates, investment and trade. Given that China and the United States remain at odds over issues relating to the East and South China Seas, as well as the Internet, these discussions may significantly mend bilateral relations between the two nations.

Against this background, American scholars James Steinberg and Michael O’Hanlon analyzed current problems in U.S.-China relations and ways to enhance ties between the two countries in their recent book “Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century.” Steinberg, who worked as President Obama’s deputy secretary of state before returning to academia, and O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and the director of research for the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, are experts whose work is particularly instructive.

Steinberg and O’Hanlon believe that although China and the United States have recently taken a series of steps to enhance mutual trust, a lingering suspicion between them could lead to greater friction and conflict. The main source of this distrust lies in vast major reform taking place in the Asia Pacific regions and in China’s emerging role in regional and international affairs, which has made neighboring countries suspicious.

For example, China has taken a series of steps to defend its territorial rights, a move which the United States views as a restriction of American influence and interests in the Western Pacific. Meanwhile, the Obama administration has openly revised U.S. strategy, calling for Asia-Pacific rebalancing. Although the U.S. government claims that this decision is aimed at promoting regional stability, people will inevitably regard it as an American attempt to restrain China.

According to Steinberg and O’Hanlon, such reactions by China and the United States are completely rational, but failure of this approach to produce effective U.S.-China foreign policy could lead to long-term mutual distrust, or to the kind of strategic misjudgment that can cause one country to misinterpret another’s determination to protect its core interests. To avoid these consequences and strengthen understanding, Steinberg and O’Hanlon recommend that the United States and China should adhere to three principles:

First, the countries should exercise self-control, so when each country takes measures to enhance its own security, it strives to avoid actions that appear threatening. For example, by limiting the number of nuclear weapons, China has fulfilled a promise to use its weapons for defense only. Similarly, the U.S. should limit its deployment of anti-missile weapons to guarantee a strategic balance with China. In addition, Steinberg and O’Hanlon recommend that China and the United States agree on establishing a reasonable distance between their satellite orbits, guaranteeing that both countries have a reasonable amount of self-defense power, and also ensuring that one country does not misread such actions as provocation.

Second, there is a principle of acting in the interest of each other’s mutual benefit which requires deeper understanding between the two countries, and in this case, requires particular understanding of self-restraint as tolerance rather than weakness. In addition, Steinberg and O’Hanlon say the countries should maintain positive and healthy competitive relations, and avoid placing restrictions on each other to gain strategic advantage. For example, China and the U.S. are highly interdependent economically, which makes it unlikely that either country would deliberately act to interfere with each other’s Internet communications, but there is the chance that terrorists or hackers could act on their own but pretend to be acting on behalf of China or the United States and in turn stir up conflict and even war. Thus, China and the U.S. should work toward a mutual understanding that will help avoid attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Finally, the principle of honesty and transparency in areas such as national defense, space exploration, electronic network communications and regional security will lead to greater mutual cooperation and avoid mistrust. Steinberg and O’Hanlon recommend the establishment of more direct communications between each country’s militaries to respond to crises that may arise. In the event of such a crisis, China and the U.S. would work to remain flexible, exercise restraint where practical and avoid exacerbating conflict. More importantly, China and the U.S. should strengthen their ability to cope with risks. In the case of network security for example, if each country works toward understanding and strengthening each other’s ability to withstand sudden network attacks, they can prepare for terrorists and hackers who want to stir up trouble between the countries, thereby avoiding being dragged into regional conflict by a third party’s network attack.

The key to ensuring lasting stability of China-U.S. relations lies in encouraging the countries to see each other’s “red line” and the price both have willingly paid to defend their own core interests. This requires not only continued communication, but the need for each country to take practical actions. Steinberg and O’Hanlon point out that in order to remove the obstacles that impede China-U.S. relations, the two nations should send stronger and more trustworthy signals to avoid misunderstanding. China should understand that the United States’ concerns reach far beyond its territory, and the United States must face and respect China’s determination to safeguard its own interests.