To Invite the Americans in?

Reluctantly, Barack Obama has become the fourth consecutive American head of state to order an armed attack on Iraqi soil. When one lingers on the entanglement of bloody episodes — as well as the fate of the Christians — which have punctuated the political life of the region, one accepts that Obama has been … invited to do what he has done! Indirectly, it goes without saying, but invited all the same.

In only a few days, the attacks led by the Sunni militants of the Islamic State have brought to light the extent to which they are well armed, well prepared and very determined. In proof of this, they took hold of [places in] Mosul in little time: some of the largest Christian centers, the largest dam in Iraq and a frontier post that is very important to the Kurds. They have also highlighted the military weaknesses of the Peshmergas, who folded far within their Kurdish lands. What else? Because they are crazy about God, religious fanatics and human contradictions, they have busied themselves with massacres of Christians as well as Yazidis, who form one of the oldest religious minorities in the world.

In the course of the actions carried out by both sides over the last few weeks, one notices one of the most troubling absences: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has done the bare minimum. He has not given himself over to the defense of the previously mentioned religious minorities. He has not observed the requirements laid down by an agreement signed by Kurdish leaders. He has not done this, he has not done that, because he no longer has the means nor the desire to do so. Here, we approach an issue so “complicated and complex” that the mystery of black holes, which are so dear to astrophysicists, proves to be a charade in comparison. Let’s go on.

Before all else, it is necessary to underline that al-Maliki is very aware that the great majority of Iraqis — all Arabs — detest the Iranians, who are all Persians. He is aware that since the departure of American soldiers in 2011, the petro-monarchies of the Persian Gulf furnish arms, men and money to the Sunnis of Iraq and Syria. For them, the prospect of an Iraqi regime, as well as a Syrian regime supported by Iran is synonymous with the end of the world. On this subject, one will recall that the amount of interethnic violence recorded in 2012, which is to say after the departure of the American contingent, was the highest since 2006 at the height of the civil war. In 2013? The amount in question has shown a growth of 100 percent in relation to 2012!

Al-Maliki is also, or even especially, aware that he can play certain cards to his advantage, given that Iran and Turkey do not have the means at their disposal to achieve their ambitions. Turkey? Between the civil war which is ravaging Syria, the million refugees that it has produced and the protests against him at home, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has his hands tied. Iran? The economic sanctions decided on by the United States have somewhat weakened the ayatollahs’ regime. To this it is necessary to add: The support provided to Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria exhausts more and more of the nation’s energy, on top of feeding internal conflicts in the heart of the ruling class. What else? During the last two years, the ayatollahs’ opinion of al-Maliki has changed completely. They are certain that from here on out he has the ambition to turn Iraq into a strong country, a powerful country. So much so that, for a year, Iraq has become the second largest petrol exporter in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Having considered all these factors, all these mixed-up variables, one can propose that al-Maliki has made and is still making the bet that if he manages to prove he has the support of Washington, even by default, he will succeed in holding on to office — on the explicit condition that the White House commits itself more in the fight against the Islamic State. It is public knowledge that al-Maliki would like Obama to finally observe the Strategic Framework Agreement, which was signed in 2008 while George Bush was still in the White House. It provided increased aid.

The conclusion is a Lebanese proverb: “If you believe that you have understood the Middle Eastern conflict, it is because it has been badly explained to you.”