The Unstoppable US Versus the Immovable China

On Aug. 25, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki stated at a daily press briefing that “[the recent intercept of a U.S. Navy plane by a Chinese fighter jet in the airspace near Hainan Island] was a specific case where we had concerns about a step that was taken by China. We expressed them. It doesn’t mean we can’t move on with our relationship. We will, we do, and we have a range of issues we’ll continue to work on together on.”

A senior analyst of U.S. international policy, Andrew Scobell, commented that “what concerns me and many others is that this sends a signal that Beijing will more actively attempt to weaken ties between the U.S. and its allies. Beijing will likely adopt a more hard-line approach toward the assertion of its sovereignty and other regional issues, within which certain elements will likely be directed toward marginalizing or weakening a security framework that has been in place there for quite some time.”*

According to both U.S. government and think tank analysts, China should remain as it was in the past and maintain a “grin and bear it” attitude in the face of strong U.S. military pressure on China’s doorstep and throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Only by doing so, supposedly, can conflict between the U.S. and China be avoided, while the U.S. will then be free to continue manipulating the political and security apparatus of the region as it pleases. This evinces the undiminished ambition for military hegemony in Asia and the Pacific that is pervasive at multiple levels within the U.S.

However, the U.S. also recognizes that the rise of China will be difficult to stave off for long. Support and development of its economy has enabled China to augment its military strength and remain uncompromising on matters relating to its core interests, and it will not bow easily to U.S. military pressure. Of course, in the view of the U.S., this will shake its Asian allies’ confidence in American leadership and may lead them to place greater importance upon their diplomatic and security relationships with China.

Open source reports show that the U.S. has stepped up monitoring of Chinese coastal deployments near the East and South China Seas in an effort to check a purported Chinese military expansion, as signified by the close encounters with the P-8A Poseidon and P-3 Orion aircraft. The U.S. has also increased its conventional and strategic forces in the South China Sea. It recently obliquely revealed a heightened density of patrols in that region for its navy’s strategic nuclear submarines.

However, a tight military budget has led to concerns within the U.S. that even as its power in the Pacific wanes, China’s will continue to grow at an accelerated pace. Consequently, it has turned to encouraging regional allies to maintain an absolute advantage over China through aggregating their strength. And the forward posture of the U.S. military in the South China Sea of late has been taken precisely to bolster the confidence of these regional allies, as well as ensure that they stay in line with U.S. strategy.

However, when it comes to the development of U.S.-China relations, the U.S. has no magic bullet to fall back on. This is because whether it is the Diaoyu standoff in the East China Sea or disputed sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea, China has no intentions of giving ground voluntarily. U.S. hopes to take the lead in maneuvering its eastern alliance to meddle in China’s affairs have been thoroughly dashed. The interception of a U.S. Navy plane is simply added evidence of the tough stance that China has adopted in areas it considers a core interest.

So far, U.S. chastisements have not won it any concessions. If it continues to lock horns with China, it will only further harm its own reputation in Asia and the Pacific. Conversely, downplaying differences of opinion while emphasizing cooperation and reminding China of the impact that the U.S.-China relationship has upon regional security will help the U.S. save some face. But regardless of all else, the stated U.S. desire to downplay disagreements and focus on common interests with China essentially strikes a note of returning to the establishment of a new model of great power relations, meaning that China has not only succeeded in staring down the U.S. this round, but has come away looking all the better for it.

The author is a freelance writer and commentator on military affairs.

*Editor’s Note: This quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.