Sino-US Relations Are at a Crossroads

U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice visited China from August 7 to 9, without any negative or embarrassing developments. Rice emphasized the U.S. prioritizing Sino-U.S. relations, saying that Obama’s November visit to Beijing will be a milestone event. This kind of positive phrasing has attracted both Western and Chinese media attention.

Recently, in the South China Sea, an American and a Chinese aircraft came “unusually close” to colliding; Rice’s visit has tried to help cool the air between the U.S. and China, hoping to quell the tension on both sides’ medias.

Rice’s visit is giving optimists of the U.S.-China relationship more hope. When we consider Sino-U.S. relations, it seems that, in a certain sense, the so-called “New Great Power Relationship” already exists. The two sides have avoided the worst situation and the next-to-worst outcome (direct military conflict or a cold ward-type situation), at the same time engaging in “mutual strategic prevention” (AUTHOR). The two nations have built an unheralded mutually beneficial “status quo” and “rising power” relationship.

If you look at this relationship from a historical perspective, the two countries have already built a “strange” great power relationship. They have many reasons to both guard against one another, but also many reason to increase cooperation. The two sides continue to guess what the other’s strategic intentions are, all the while being pushed forward by advantageous cooperation toward a much closer partnership.

This relationship is standing at a crossroads, with hedging and cooperation leading in opposite directions. Will the relationship head toward the old zero-sum political struggle, or will it head toward a path of cooperation and mutual benefit? Both paths are possible.

The difficulties in Sino-U.S. relations lie in the two sides’ fundamental mistrust in the other’s strategic ambitions, as the two sides’ cooperation at this point is just superficial and targeted. Many people worry, even as the areas of cooperation spread, it still won’t be able to eliminate the rivalry and struggles that are created by strategic competition.

We need to acknowledge that in the history of human civilization there hasn’t been a relationship like this before, where two great countries with these greatly differing traditions and political systems have coexisted peacefully. So, we should still be a bit skeptical of the long-term probability of the two sides being able to resolve their differences. The foundation of U.S. and Chinese mutual strategic trust must be built on a sincere and honest effort to work toward it. One difference between this relationship and that of past great powers will be the efforts of the two societies of each country toward working bringing the two sides together.

For example, recently America has continued to fly planes near China for military reconnaissance and is committed to “pivoting toward Asia;” clearly against China. For all its imagination, China cannot find a reason to believe or understand American “good intentions.” On the other hand, China is hastening the development of its military strength, expanding the range of its naval and air forces over the Pacific. America cannot believe that these measures aren’t intended to push the U.S. out of Asia.

The U.S. and China need to search for a way to manage the difference in strategic goals and mistrust. To do so, they must find some urgent reason; as the two sides will find more and more friction in specific areas. Only by finding a way to settle differences can the mistrust be mitigated, and a substantive change in the nature of the relationship be had.

This concept of “New Great Power Relations” is a good idea and foundation, but it needs decades of cultivation and protection to grow. For this, the two sides’ leadership is critical — they won’t be able to simply make compromises and handle disputes like sharing bread, but they can use their influences to help handle differences when they occur. For example, in times of certain crisis, they can play a decisive role in stabilizing affairs.

The structure of the Western Pacific is changing; China’s ability to defend itself is growing. This invites serious introspection by both sides in Sino-U.S. relations. We can’t let hysterical ideas influence the future development of the relationship, we need to maintain fundamentally optimistic. This world is becoming more and more civilized; from normal war to cold war, and from cold war to the guarded cooperation of the Sino-U.S. Great Power Relationship. Despite complications occurring, such as the events in Ukraine, the main path for human society has already become clear.