War on ‘Jihadistan’

President Obama maintains that he has embarked upon a war against international terror; as a result, he needs to arm a coalition that, basically, will provide the corpses. But the nature of the enemy, the caliphate (the Islamic State, which is spreading throughout Iraq and Syria), and especially that of the allies, makes the operation’s chances of success doubtful.

First, we need to know who the partners are and why: ten Arab countries from the area, many of whom have already said they will take part, but only by providing aerial support, which is exactly what the U.S. does not need. And because Obama is insistent that there will be no involvement of U.S. ground troops, Arab ground troops will be required to conquer the land which Washington bombs from the sky, partly with drones in order to minimize casualties. But volunteering is delayed, because everyone wants maximum recognition for minimum effort.

Among the essential allies there are serious omissions. The Egyptian president, el-Sisi, is demanding war be waged against all forms of terrorism, including the Palestinian Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in its entirety, which he has already ousted from power after the most democratic elections ever organized in the country of the Nile. Worse still is the case of Turkey, a Muslim country, but non-Arab, which will not send troops or allow bombing from its NATO bases and which will only provide humanitarian aid. Ankara claims as justification that the caliphate is holding hostage 49 of its nationals; although behind all of this exists the aversion towards sharing a side with the Iraqi Kurds who are keeping jihadis at bay, though only to consolidate the borders of an independence they already have in all but name. An independent Kurdistan would be a time-bomb for Kurdish Turkey. And to make matters worse, the Islamic State can fund an army of up to 30,000 combatants, thanks to the Turkish State turning a blind eye toward the Iraqi trafficking of oil which is being sold on the black market with profits of between $1-2 million per day. Blocking that financing would be as important as embarking on an air or ground war, for which it would be enough to endlessly attack the convoys transporting crude oil from Iraq to Turkey in front of the whole world. The loyalty of Saudi Arabia and Qatar is worthy of investigation. Whilst the jihadis were warring against Assad’s Syria, they were subsidized by the monarchy and the emirate; but they were becoming independent actors, and on top of that with aspirations to a caliphate, Riyadh may have come to the conclusion that it is not interested in having competitors for Allah’s favor. However, all of that does not deny that without the Saudis or the Qataris, this Jihadistan would have been another threat. And the icing on the cake is that there can be only tacit cooperation with those fighting against the Islamic State, the Syrian army and Iraqi units because of the taboos and mistrust which exist on both sides.

The transformation of that magma of travelling companions — which has been discussed in Paris — into a fighting force, will require time and biblical patience. Barack Obama has started something which is going to be difficult to finish.