Once Again, Where Is Venezuela?

In a column published Monday morning, I asked the Bloomberg gurus: Where is Venezuela in the pessimistic guide to 2015?* In The Washington Post, Jackson Diehl delves deeper into the theme, warning that both Obama and the leaders of Latin America are neglecting the seriousness of the situation in the failed country misgoverned by Chavism.

Deihl does not neglect to mention the disconnect of the Obama foreign policy to the real world. He lists errors such as the fixing of a timetable for ending the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the insistence on finding a peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians when no objective conditions exist for one, and the mistake of trying to broker a new nuclear treaty with Putin, when it is obvious that our man in Moscow has been preparing for large provocations against the West. Now in the sixth year of his presidency, Obama achieved his first great initiative in Latin America: a detente with Cuba.

Diehl dissects the White House initiative, arguing that Cuba is desperate and Obama could be extracting more concessions from the dictator Castro in this project of normalizing relations. The urgent reason for the inquietude in Havana is the collapse of the Chavist regime, readied by the vertiginous fall in the price of a barrel of oil since the middle of 2014. The backdrop here is a relationship of mutual dependency between Cuba and Venezuela.

Strangely, the only visible initiative of the Obama administration in the face of the Chavist implosion is doing that which he repudiated for Cuba: imposing sanctions, as a reprisal for repression of the opposition by the Nicolas Maduro regime. Jackson Diehl recalls that the Venezuelan opposition is in favor of sanctions, but hopes for a more vigorous diplomatic intervention from the two companions Dilma Rousseff, in the vicinity (a vain hope that the group known as UNASUL** does something positive in that direction), and Obama.

What we have in Washington, seconded with enthusiasm by Latin America, is the focus on the political rehabilitation of Cuba (something which in fact must be undertaken) while the situation in Caracas is being ignored (a very grave inaction). Clearly no one on the continent is interested in an implosion in Venezuela. However, he notes that in a meeting with U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden last week, Dilma’s emphasis was on pressing Washington to improve relations with Chavism, as in the case of Castroism. Biden’s emphasis was on how Brazil must pressure the Chavists not to suppress the opposition.

International action to ease a transition in Venezuela is urgent. With negligence, the continent becomes complicit in the implosion of the country.

*Note to readers: Mr. Blinder is referring to “The Pessimists Guide to the World in 2015” http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-flash-points/

**Editor’s note: UNASUL refers to the Union of South American Nations.