Obama Triumphs

Economic situation? Great! Education? Super! And energy? Amazing! In his State of the Union address Barack Obama celebrated the U.S., but above all himself.

For the U.S. president, it was a night of winners. Barack Obama used his penultimate State of the Union address to demonstrate his successes to his friends and foes. “Tonight, we turn the page,” he said.

Appearing more relaxed than he has for a long time, he recited a list of achievements which he claims credit for. The most important of which for Obama is economic regeneration; the economy is stronger than it has been “since 1999.” The biggest triumph for his government is the upturn in the employment market, with an unemployment figure less than the level it was before the crisis in 2008. Progress in education as well: Never before have so many pupils completed high school or gone to college. And in energy, America is now more independent from foreign oil imports than it has been for 40 years. Obama even claims credit for the favorable price of gas.

It’s hard to believe that this is the president whose party suffered a demolishing election defeat only two months ago, and who, for the rest of his time in office, must face a Congress which is firmly in the grip of the Republicans. If Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, and his party colleague John Boehner, Speaker of the House of Representatives, had counted on a president who felt defeated and was ready to compromise, their error must now be clear to them, if it wasn’t already.

Obama is determined to put his recently regained political capital to use. He has an approval rating of 46 percent, according to the latest polls; the last time the figure was so high was in fall 2013.

More a Statement of Belief than a To-Do List

However, Obama’s victory speech was also aimed at his party colleagues, a lot of whom distanced themselves from the unpopular president during last year’s election. He has led two elections and won both, he said at one point. For Obama, it’s now about securing his political inheritance. This includes preparing the ground for his potential successor, Hillary Clinton.

Thus the agenda that the president presented in his speech is to be understood more as a political statement of belief and manifesto than a to-do list — particularly since most of his suggestions do not have the slightest chance in the face of the Republican majority, as Obama knows.

There’s Something Here for Every Voting Bloc

In his manifesto for 2015, there are promises for all of the Democrats’ important voting blocs. Affordable childcare, maternity leave and paid sick leave, which 43 million employed Americans still don’t have — these are topics which appeal mainly to women. To the black minority, his remarks pertained to the events in Ferguson and his call for a reform of police and the judiciary. His suggestion to remove tuition fees for community colleges has already provided a resounding response from young people.

In a much talked-about break from tradition, Obama had made some of the principal points of his speech known beforehand. In view of the State of the Union’s ratings figures, which had been declining for years — last year 30 million people tuned in, his first inauguration in 2009 drew over 50 million viewers — the president’s communication team attempted to spread his message to a wider audience and, above all, to use social media.

Renewed Transgression into Free Trade

Obama’s suggestions for tax reform present a surprisingly clear rebuff to the Republicans. Of all things, the Republicans had hoped for the opportunity to find a compromise on the subject of tax reform. They find themselves under a lot more pressure than Obama. Following their election success in November, they must now show that they are able to govern. Indeed, Obama’s plans for tax, to increase capital returns tax and inheritance tax for the wealthy, don’t stand a chance either. But the Republicans’ rejection means they are hard pressed to explain how they imagine an alternative policy is to benefit the suffering American middle-class.

For Europeans, Obama’s push into free trade is remarkable following the president’s indifference to the topic in last year’s speech. In order that things such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership don’t come into question again however, Congress must give Obama the mandate to sign off a negotiated agreement without it first having to go through Congress again. The more moderate factions among the Republicans would agree, above all because the economy requires it. But tea party supporters see it as a sellout of American interests, and they don’t want to grant Obama a mandate of any type. In Obama’s own party resistance to such an agreement is still considerable.

The trade unions, still the most important of the Democrats’ supporters, are afraid for jobs. With the U.S. economy’s increasing recovery, many members of Congress don’t recognize the urgency of the subject anymore, particularly because it’s not a priority among voters. The strategic alliance of the Democratic left and the Republican right could prove to be a further hindrance for Obama and his free-trade mandate. Without this mandate, negotiations will continue to drag on, but completion under this president is less than improbable.

Hardly Any Mention of Foreign Policy

Obama only skimmed the topic of foreign policy. He should, supposedly, dedicate a third of his speech to this subject — but it was very evident that his domestic policy successes were much more important to him. Only in passing did he celebrate the international isolation of Putin’s aggressive Russia as a success of American diplomacy. He also didn’t exactly linger on the fight against the terror group Islamic State. Anyone who expected more on the topic of terrorism after the attacks in Paris was mistaken. The president didn’t want his victory lap to be tarnished.

He had a lot of good news to announce. His State of the Union address couldn’t be better summarized.