Obama Better than Bush, Even Without Speaking Español

Published in Diário de Notícias
(Portugal) on 13 April 2015
by Leonido Paulo Ferreira (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Bryce Bray. Edited by Bora Mici.
George W. Bush had it all to triumph in his Latin America policies. Raised in Texas, he liked cowboy boots so much that he was photographed with the Mexican president comparing whose boots were more artistic. Confident in his Spanish that he had perhaps learned through his sister-in-law, Columba, he dared to go to Vicente Fox’s ranch in San Cristobal to speak about immigration. After all, as the press said, they were “two amigos.”

Ironically, however, it might be Barack Obama, son of a Kenyan and white woman from Kansas, born in Hawaii and educated in Indonesia, who ends up as the president who reconciled the country with its neighbors below the Rio Grande.

It can be sensed that Obama has resolved to use diplomacy during the end of his term. It is for this reason that we see the agreement with a nuclear Iran and the rush to normalize relations with Cuba. But if the negotiations with the ayatollahs carry risks, what has already been accomplished in La Habana only brings applause. The thing is, while Iran continues to be a threat to Washington’s plans for the Middle East, Cuba is no longer Moscow’s pawn in America’s backyard, much less a supplier of troops that helped the Soviet blockade and, similarly, to establish itself in Africa.

Fifteen months went by between Raul Castro’s handshake at Nelson Mandela’s funeral and the current Summit of the Americas. And if the handshake in South Africa was unexpected and led to dreaming, that of Panama was predictable. Will it take Obama long to remove Cuba from the list of countries that sponsor terrorism? Six decades of turned backs, a duel that started with Dwight Eisenhower and Fidel Castro, it’s natural for it to be especially desirable to go beyond the stage of rhetoric.

In contrast to other parts of the world — like in Iraq, invaded by Bush — U.S. popularity remains strong in Latin America, according to the Pew Institute, with more than 60 percent of opinions being positive in several countries, including Venezuela.

For that matter, Obama is able to unite normalizing relations with Cuba with a loss in the attractiveness of the Bolivarian revolution, which has become less and less of a model due to Hugo Chavez’s death and the low oil prices. It also related to Colombia’s current presence in the spotlight, always a sure ally. Obama is also benefiting from Dilma Rousseff’s weaknesses, which are stopping Brazilian ambitions of establishing themselves as another giant in the Americas.

In this way, adding foreign policy success to the decision to normalize the situation of 5 million immigrants, Obama, even without being able to speak Spanish, can bequeath to the Democratic candidate (Hillary Clinton?) some 80 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 2016 elections, more than his 71 percent in 2012 — even if Jeb Bush is on the other side, the husband of Senorita Columba.


George W. Bush tinha tudo para triunfar na sua política para a América Latina. Criado no Texas, gostava tanto de botas à cowboy que chegou a ser fotografado com o presidente mexicano a comparar quem calçava as mais artísticas. Confiante também no espanhol aprendido talvez com a cunhada Columba, atreveu-se a ir ao rancho de Vicente Fox em San Cristóbal falar de imigração. Afinal, como dizia a imprensa, eram "two amigos". Mas, ironia, será Barack Obama, filho de um queniano e de uma branca do Kansas, nascido no Havai e educado na Indonésia, a ficar como o presidente que reconciliou o país com os vizinhos abaixo do Rio Grande.
Percebe-se que Obama está decidido a fazer diplomacia neste final de segundo mandato. Por isso o acordo sobre o nuclear iraniano, por isso também a pressa em normalizar as relações com Cuba. Mas se as negociações com os ayatollahs trazem riscos, aquilo já conseguido com Havana só colhe aplausos. É que enquanto o Irão continua uma ameaça aos planos de Washington para o Médio Oriente, Cuba já não é o peão de Moscovo no pátio americano, muito menos o fornecedor das tropas que ajudavam o bloco soviético e afins a impor-se em África.
Entre o aperto de mão a Raúl Castro no funeral de Nelson Mandela e este agora na cimeira das Américas passaram 15 meses. E se o da África do Sul foi inesperado, e fez sonhar, o do Panamá era previsível e arrisca saber a pouco: tardará Obama a retirar Cuba da lista de países que apoiam o terrorismo? Foram seis décadas de costas voltadas, duelo que começou com Dwight Eisenhower e Fidel Castro, é natural que seja grande a vontade de ultrapassar a fase da retórica.
Ao contrário de outras zonas do mundo (como o Iraque que o texano Bush invadiu), a popularidade dos Estados Unidos permanece alta na América Latina, segundo o instituto Pew, com mais de 60% de opiniões positivas em vários países, incluindo a Venezuela.
Aliás, Obama consegue aliar à normalização com Cuba uma perda de brilho da revolução bolivariana, cada vez menos modelo por culpa da morte de Hugo Chávez e da baixa do petróleo, e ver destacar-se a Colômbia, aliado sempre seguro. E beneficia ainda das debilidades de Dilma Rousseff, que travam as ambições brasileiras de se impor como o outro gigante das Américas.
Por este caminho, somando os êxitos na política externa com a decisão de regularizar cinco milhões de imigrantes, Obama, mesmo sem falar espanhol, pode legar ao candidato democrata (Hillary Clinton?) uns 80% de voto hispânico nas presidenciais de 2016, mais do que os 71% de 2012. Mesmo que do outro lado esteja Jeb Bush, o marido da señorita Columba.
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