The Republican Obama (Or Will He Be a Kennedy?)

Published in Veja
(Brazil) on 14 April 2015
by Caio Blinder (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jane Dorwart. Edited by Bora Mici.
Since coming from behind to win the 2010 election for senator in Florida, Marco Rubio has born the stamp of being a Republican Obama. With the formalization of his candidature in the Republican presidential primaries on Monday, he wants to invest in what is considered the best part of that label: being a young politician, from humble origins, a son of Cuban immigrants, who defeats the expectations and the dynastic favorites. The jump to the White House in one generation is proof of the greatness of the "American dream."

In the case of Obama, on the other side, in the 2008 Democratic primaries, there was queen Hillary Clinton. In the case of Rubio, before [the primaries], is the middle-of-the- road prince Jeb Bush, who also is about to make his candidature official. Ironically, before the election in 2010, Bush, the former governor of Florida, incentivized his political godson to step up the pace and run for the Senate. Now, there is the Shakespearean plot of a son, who betrayed his father and assumed his ambitions for the throne.

Marco Rubio wants to go down in history as the first Latino president in the White House by triumphing in the November 2016 elections. In contrast to Mitt Romney in 2012 and Jeb Bush now, he is one of the favorites of the tea party and has wound up with the necessary pragmatism, in the name of the ideological purity of the ultraconservative movement distancing himself from support of immigration reform, which would open the door to millions of undocumented residents to formalize their status in the country. He gained some strength in the primaries, but lost his "appeal" as a Republican candidate capable of seducing a growing electorate of Latin origins or of merely being adjusted to a framework of ethnic diversity in the USA.

Rubio hopes to compensate for his changing stance on immigration with messages that focus on the need for socio-economic policies that reduce income inequalities in the country (but more through opportunities than redistributionism). Without doubt, he has more charisma than Romney, and on top of that has not been labeled as a plutocrat.

Unlike candidate Rand Paul, but like Ted Cruz, the other son of Cuba who is equally beloved by the tea party, Rubio takes the position of a hawk in foreign policy. As might be expected, he fires shots incessantly against an accord on the Irananian nuclear program and the rapprochement between the U.S. and Cuba, although two-thirds of Americans are in favor of this initiative, even among the younger electorate of Cuban origins in Florida.

For me, it is difficult to see Marco Rubio as having much of a chance in the Republican primaries race. However, I recognize his attributes, such as charisma, youthfulness, and the capacity to act outside of the demographic bubble of the Republican Party (in spite of his retreat on immigration) may gain him points, in addition to his ability to overtake competitors by coming from way behind. Another positive point is his willingness to keep bridges open to the Republican establishment, in contrast to the irascible Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. And, despite being a card-carrying conservative driven by the tea party, he knows that politics in Washington require making compromises. His immediate challenges are to gain national recognition and skillfully run between the various Republican factions in the marathon of the primaries.

Charles Krauthammer, a conservative guru whom I respect well, has made a prognostication that Marco Rubio, 43 years old, may be the underdog in the Republican primary, an excellent contrast to the sexagenarian queen Hillary Clinton. A recent poll in The Wall Street Journal/NBC News revealed that 56 percent of probable voters in the Republican primaries would consider voting for Rubio, the best performance in a crowd of aspirants. Krauthammer never made a parallel with Obama. He said that Marcio Rubio has the vigor and energy of a John Kennedy, that young senator and plutocrat prince of the Democrats who won the election in 1960 when he was 43 years old.


Desde que veio de trás para vencer a eleição para senador na Flórida em 2010, Marco Rubio estampa o rótulo de Obama republicano. Com a formalização de sua candidatura nas primárias presidenciais republicanas na segunda-feira, ele quer investir no que considera a boa parte do rótulo: o político jovem, de origem humilde, filho de imigrantes cubanos que derrota as expectativas e os favoritos dinásticos. O salto para a Casa Branca em uma geração é a prova da grandeza do American Dream.

No caso de Obama, do outro lado, nas primárias democratas em 2008, estava a rainha Hillary Clinton. No caso de Rubio, antes, no meio do caminho, está o príncipe Jeb Bush, que também está para oficializar a candidatura. Ironicamente, antes da eleição em 2010, Bush, ex-governador da Flórida, incentivou seu afilhado político a apressar o passo e concorrer ao Senado. Agora, existe esta trama shakesperiana do filho que trai o pai ao assumir suas ambições ao trono.

Marco Rubio quer entrar para a história como o primeiro latino na Casa Branca, triunfando nas eleições de novembro de 2016. Ao contrário de Mitt Romney em 2012 e Jeb Bush agora, ele é um dos favoritos do Tea Party e acabou contendo o necessário pragmatismo em nome da pureza ideológica do movimento ultraconservador, se distanciando de apoio a uma reforma da imigração, que abre um caminho para 11 milhões de ilegais formalizarem seu status no país. Ganha assim alguma força nas primárias, mas perde o seu appeal como um candidato republicano capaz de seduzir o crescente eleitorado de origem latina ou meramente ajustado a um quadro de diversidade étnica nos EUA.

Rubio espera compensar sua guinada em imigração com as mensagens que têm polido sobre a necessidade de politicas socioeconômicas que reduzam as desigualdades de renda no país (mais através de oportunidades do que de distributivismo). Sem dúvida, ele tem mais carisma do que Romney e ainda por cima é desprovido da grife de plutocrata.

Ao contrário do candidato Rand Paul, mas como Ted Cruz, o outro filho de cubano igualmente queridinho do Tea Party, Rubio assume uma posição de falcão em politica externa. Como era de se esperar, ele dispara de forma incessante contra o acordo sobre o programa nuclear iraniano e a reaproximação entre EUA e Cuba, embora 2/3 dos americanos sejam a favor da iniciativa, assim como o eleitorado mais jovem de origem cubana na Flórida.

Para mim, é difícil ver Marco Rubio com muita chance na corrida das primárias republicanas. No entanto, reconheço que seus atributos, como carisma, juventude e capacidade de atuar fora da bolha demográfica do partido (apesar do recuo em imigração) podem contar pontos, além de sua capacidade de ultrapasssar competidores, vindo lá de trás. Outro ponto positivo é sua disposição para manter pontes abertas para o establishment republicano, ao contrário dos irascíveis Rand Paul e Ted Cruz. E, apesar de conservador de carteirinha impulsionado pela Tea Party, ele sabe que na política de Washington é preciso costurar compromissos. Seus desafios imediatos são ganhar reconhecimento nacional e correr com habilidade entre as várias facções republicanas na maratona das primárias.

Charles Krauthammer, um guru conservador que eu respeito bastante, tem o prognóstico de que Marco Rubio, 43 anos, pode ser o azarão no páreo republicano, um excelente contraste à sexagenária rainha Hillary Clinton. Uma recente pesquisa Wall Street Journal/NBC News revelou que 56% de prováveis eleitores nas primárias republicanas considerariam votar em Rubio, o melhor desempenho na multidão de pretendentes. Krauthammer nem faz o paralelo com Obama. Diz que Marco Rubio tem o vigor e a energia de um John Kennedy, aquele jovem senador e príncipe plutocrata dos democratas que venceu as eleições em 1960 quando tinha 43 anos.

***
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