Against Whom Are the US and Japan Strengthening Their Military Alliance?

On April 26, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began a seven-day visit to the United States. Its results will cause serious changes in U.S.-Japan relations.

“I want to make it clear that Japan and the U.S., based on our strong ties, will together achieve peace and prosperity in the 21st century and begin a new era,” Shinzo Abe told Japanese journalists before leaving on tour. And in order to achieve peace, the Japanese prime minister must prepare for war: One of Shinzo Abe’s goals for the American voyage was to reach an agreement on a new format for the U.S.-Japan alliance.

For a long time, one of the alliance’s main goals was restraining the growth of Japan’s military might. Washington believed that a strong Japan with its militaristic traditions would cause a serious destabilization of the situation in the region, and therefore it was prepared to provide the necessary level of protection with its own forces. But upon coming to power, Shinzo Abe has set a course toward strengthening the country’s military capabilities, understanding that in the future it will have to face Beijing’s rising influence. As experts in the area are writing, the world has never seen the combination of such a strong Japan and such a strong China. The Land of the Rising Sun has passed a number of laws on remilitarization, and on Jan. 14, 2015, the Japanese government authorized the largest military budget in the nation’s history: 4.98 trillion Japanese yen (around $41.97 billion). However, a simple spending increase is insufficient. Japan must convince its own population and outside friends that militarization is necessary.

The first task was accomplished during the parliamentary elections in December 2014, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan won more than 60 percent of the seats in the Diet, and along with its allies now has a constitutional majority. Celebrations were only spoiled by the fact that the LDP didn’t receive support in Okinawa, where voters chose parties in favor of pacifism and weakening pro-American policy. Convincing the United States to reconsider Japan’s role in the region wasn’t easy, however for all appearances it seems Shinzo Abe has succeeded.

At the very beginning of his visit, the U.S. and Japan announced a review of the key principles of the bilateral alliance. The sum of these changes was more active Japanese participation in the alliance. “Under the new guidelines the two countries are establishing a standing, whole-of-government mechanism for alliance coordination, enabling a seamless response in all phases, from peacetime to contingencies,” according to an announcement from the U.S. and Japanese ministries of defense and foreign affairs. Furthermore, the joint statement announced Tokyo’s and Washington’s more active participation in joint humanitarian operations beyond their borders. And in order for Japan to be able to successfully participate in them, the United States promised to deliver its latest weapons systems. For its part, Tokyo promises to pass a new law removing the constitutional ban on the country’s participation in collective defense projects, which will allow it to fight for the Americans in case the U.S. is attacked (in the previous agreement Japan did not bear such a responsibility). “Today we mark the establishment of Japan’s capacity to defend not just its own territory, but also the United States and other partners as needed,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said about Japan’s new commitment.

At the same time, Washington confirmed its intention to defend Japan at all costs. Barack Obama called America’s guarantee to defend Japan “absolute.” Of course, theoretically one could doubt the American president’s word, especially if one recalls what “absolute” guarantees have been given to different friends and partners of the U.S. around the world, like Hosni Mubarak, for example. However in Tokyo’s case, the situation is somewhat different. It would be illogical for Washington to give up its ally, who is its natural partner in the fight against China, which poses the greatest current threat to American positions around the world, even taking into account the fact that China is America’s greatest creditor. It’s for this very reason that Obama made it clear that Washington is prepared to defend not only the main territory of Japan, but also the Senkaku Islands, which are de facto controlled by Japan, and which China claims.

However, not everything has gone successfully for Abe on this visit (which you will recall is not yet over). In speaking engagements he was asked uncomfortable questions about a number of Japanese war crimes, for which the Japanese have not sufficiently repented. In particular, he was asked about the forcing of hundreds of thousands of women (mainly Koreans) into sexual slavery. It’s clear that if Abe wants to create a serious anti-Chinese alliance and draw South Korea into it, then he will have to resolve this issue by officially admitting Tokyo’s complicity in this crime, and possibly paying compensation to the surviving women, not for the sake of morality, but for pragmatic reasons.

Problems with Russia could be another unpleasant aspect. Doubtless the Japanese prime minister’s refusal to come to Moscow on May 9, or even to send some significant members of the cabinet, was a goodwill gesture to his American friends. Japan will send its ambassador to the 70th anniversary celebrations of the end of World War II. However, the Kremlin could be angered for another reason: During the Japanese prime minister’s visit, Barack Obama announced that the U.S. and Japan are “opposing Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”

If the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs can’t or simply doesn’t want to somehow downplay this fairly harsh statement, then all of Japan’s links to Russia are under threat. It’s no secret that although Tokyo joined Western sanctions against Moscow, nevertheless it’s in no hurry to cut ties, and is constantly letting Moscow know that the Japanese have practically been forced to join the sanctions. The Japanese authorities understand perfectly well that despite all their ties with the United States, it will be extremely difficult (if not impossible) to contain the growth of China’s military might and political influence without at least benevolent neutrality from Russia. This neutrality won’t exist if Japan continues along with the U.S. in “opposing Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” especially while the EU is demonstrating its willingness to depart from this strategy.