Abandoning the Withdrawal of American Troops: How Should We Depict the Stability of Afghanistan?

U.S. President Barack Obama has abandoned his plans to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. As of now, there are around 10,000 troops stationed there, and after the end of this year, the number will be cut to around 5,500 troops.

This constitutes a large policy change for the Obama administration, which made an important public commitment to end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Though President Obama is approaching the end of his term in January 2017, he must continue to spend the last of his efforts on Afghanistan’s stability.

Because of 9/11, a 2001 terrorist attack centered on the U.S., the U.S. and NATO launched a strike on Afghanistan’s Taliban, caused its collapse, and after a decision made by the U.N. Security Council, dispatched the International Security Assistance Force with American troops at its center.

After that, President Obama took another look at the armed intervention promoted by the previous Bush administration, and aimed to reduce the American military’s level of involvement. In May 2014, Obama announced a plan to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. By the end of 2014, ISAF had completed its mission. Now, of the maximum 100,000 troops who were dispatched, roughly 10,000 soldiers remain to assist Afghan soldiers through training and the teaching of anti-terrorist tactics.

Despite this, security in Afghanistan is worsening. In September, anti-government Taliban forces captured Kunduz, a vital city in the north. Government troops recaptured it a few days later with the assistance of American forces, but because the new government has been mismanaged since its inauguration, it was doubtful that the plan to withdraw American troops would really take place.

On top of that, in the fighting that continued after the recapture, American forces mistakenly bombed a hospital operated by “Doctors without Borders,” an international organization dedicated to providing emergency medical care. The incident resulted in a large amount of casualties, and came to show and symbolize the chaotic nature of Afghan policy.

And time and time again, terrorist attacks by the radical organization Islamic State continue to rise.

In 2011, when American forces completely withdrew from Iraq, public order deteriorated and the Islamic State group was able to greatly expand its influence. The U.S. was showered in criticism from the international community for withdrawing too early. Most likely the U.S. has judged that it cannot prevent this from happening again.

The Afghan government and NATO both welcome the idea [of abandoning withdrawal], but this does not mean that there is any new strategy for peace in Afghanistan. It is highly likely this will be an important issue in the next presidential election.

In the end, suppression through military might only gives birth to a cycle of revenge through terrorism, of which we have witnessed the limits. Though difficult, the only path we can take is to hold a peace conference and move forward through dialogue.

Thus far, Japan has supported Afghanistan through reconstruction projects and police training. I’d like for us to continue on a steady path of cooperation, and nurture talented people who could carry the future of the country on their shoulders.