America Drifts to the Left

Donald Trump’s commanding popularity in the U.S. primary race would seem to indicate that Americans are becoming more conservative again. But exactly the opposite is the case.

In the U.S., one man has been dominating the headlines: “Trump wants to block Muslims from entering the country.” “Trump wants remove weapon-free zones in schools.” “Trump advocates use of torture.” With these reactions to openly racist slogans, Donald Trump has catapulted himself to the top of the Republican candidate list for the presidency. How can that be? Is America now making a step backward after eight years of liberal politics under Barack Obama?

For decades, the political rule of thumb during the primary has been to expect a popular backlash against whoever is currently holding office, whether they are a Republican or Democrat. One could therefore assume that the broad majority of people in the U.S. have had enough of left-leaning politics after a series of liberal reforms. Among those are health care reform, the Iranian nuclear deal, and the legalization of same-sex marriages — all liberal projects of the Obama era.

Even if the rise of Donald Trump could have been predicted, the backlash would appear particularly serious this time. There are still many signs that exactly the opposite is the case. America is drifting to the left. That has been confirmed by Robert Shapiro, former director of the Institute for Political Science at Columbia University in New York. “The young generation clearly seems to be more liberal than 20 years ago,”* says Shapiro. Again and again, the so-called “millenials,” who are now 18 to 35 years old and do not clearly belong to any particular party, have indicated their concern for issues such as environmental protection, social inequality and minority rights. “If this group is mobilized, it will lead to a victory for the Democrats,”* says Shapiro. That has also been signaled in the previous presidential races resulting in Obama’s presidency.

Without Occupy, a Sanders Victory Would Be Unthinkable

Political movements such as Occupy Wall Street have played an important role in past years, even as the group has almost entirely dissolved since then. “They brought attention to the problem of growing inequality. The issue now stands at the forefront of the political agenda in the presidential race, and not only among the Democrats,”* says Shapiro. Without this debate, the candidacy of left-wing Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders would be unthinkable. The professed socialist has stirred up the primary race among the Democrats and pushed the agenda of the actual favorite Hillary Clinton far to the left.

Suddenly, projects that don’t exactly fit within the Clinton family politics are appearing on her policy program. Bill Clinton, unlike other Democrats before him, formulated economically liberal and bank friendly politics. Now, his wife has declared the strengthening of the middle class as her top priority. She speaks in favor of paid parental leave, debt-free university education, and kindergarten for everyone. “What one has traditionally understood as being part of the welfare state, is considered extremely progressive,”* says political scientist Shapiro. In comparison to other developed countries, in contrast to Europe above all, the U.S. has continued to stand at the bottom end of the scale in terms of a welfare agenda.

The majority of Americans believe that their country offers few opportunities for upward mobility. According to a poll by the Pew Research Institute from last year, 62 percent of Americans say that their economic system “unfairly favors powerful interests.” Even nearly 50 percent of Republicans have aligned themselves with this viewpoint. Although conservatives in the U.S. have traditionally advocated for minimal state interference, the majority of Republicans are also now saying that the government has done too little for the poor, the middle class and small businesses. Instead, big businesses and the financial sector have been the big winners.

Leftist opinions have worked their way into other topics of conversation: FIfty-seven percent of Americans support same-sex marriage. It was legalized last year by the Supreme Court, despite the majority of the judges being conservative. U.S. expert Johannes Thimm of the Foundation for Science and Politics adds: “The Republicans have since given up on this issue because they have noted that they cannot make any moves on this issue even with their traditional voter base.” Among younger Americans, homosexuality has now become broadly accepted in society, especially because most people know of same-sex relationships in their circles of friends.

Fifty-seven Percent Against Trump’s Ban on Muslims

While Trump has tried to put the subject of immigration right at the top of the political agenda of this campaign race, it plays a subordinate role for most Americans. Only 5 percent in a poll by NBC and The Wall Street Journal consider this issue the top priority for the government. Fifty-seven percent of Americans reject Trump’s demands to temporarily stop all Muslims from entering the U.S.

The viewpoints of the former minorities have gained more weight in general: The percentage of Hispanics, African Americans, and Asian Americans in U.S. society has been consistently increasing, according to the Pew Institute. In 2000, these population groups formed only about 20 percent of voters; in 2016, they made up almost a third. Although the Latin American population still holds a more conservative opinion on topics such as same-sex marriage, Republicans are nevertheless losing votes when Trump and his Republican opponent Ted Cruz agitate against immigrants. “The Republicans have decided to lead a campaign against minorities,”* says Professor Shapiro. “They hope to balance this out with votes from the white middle and lower class.”*

A Third of Trump Supporters Older than 60

If ones looks more closely at the supporters of Donald Trump, this hypothesis is confirmed. Stanford University in California has discovered in an analysis that about a third of Trump supporters are older than 60, and only 2 percent are younger than 30. Additionally, fans of Trump have had less access to education and lower incomes: Only 19 percent have a university degree and about a third earn less than $50,000 a year.

In any case, SWP** expert Thimm calls for a more subtle look at the situation. “It is indeed correct that same-sex marriage had been introduced with a speed that no one would have expected even 10 years ago.” It has been a similar situation with the legalization of marijuana, as the law has started to change in only a few states. Yet, conservative opinions about gun control remain anchored in American society. There has actually been more of a loosening of the restrictions over the past years, although a majority of Americans are for more controls. “Only the gun lobby is more powerful here,” says Thimm.

’Tax Gifts for the Super Rich’

It can be safely stated that the U.S. is very polarized at the moment. “Trump is not the only candidate who demonstrates this,” explains the SWP expert. For example, his Republican opponent Marco Rubio, who is accepted as more moderate, has presented proposals to change tax legislation that would be further to the right than what President George W. Bush had enacted. “There would be tax gifts for the super rich. And the state would lose billions in revenue,” says Thimm. The Republicans have clearly moved to the right in the current primary race, even the so-called moderate candidates.

In that sense, Thimm is skeptical of the claim that the U.S. is shifting to the left in general. President Obama’s health care reform has also shown this. “‘Obamacare’ initially led to a massive backlash, not only among the Republican voter base,” says Thimm. Even deep into the political middle, people have not been convinced. Certainly, the reform has been successful in general. “Seventeen million Americans who previously had no health insurance are now insured.” It will be difficult for a potential Republican president to roll back the reform again.

A prediction for the outcome of the election on Nov. 8 would be nearly impossible at this moment. It will be dependent on which candidate wins the nomination for each party. The left-wing powers in the country are speculating on this scenario: Should Trump win the Republican primary despite most expectations, the Democrats will be able to use that to their advantage. For an increasingly liberal society, the possibility of Trump in the White House would be a long shot.

*Editor’s note: These quotes, accurately translated, could not be verified.

**Editor’s note: SWP is an acronym for Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German translation of the Foundation for Science and Politics.