The ‘Bad America’ Trump Cast Light On Is Not Real

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 18 March 2016
by Robert A. Manning (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Calvin Blackburn. Edited by Eva Langman.
In his shocking rise in the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, American billionaire and real estate mogul and TV star Donald Trump has displayed the brash, vulgar, headstrong and arrogant side of American politics. It has gotten to the point where one after another American has become puzzled by Trump’s magnetism, and the former Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and John McCain have openly attacked Trump as a “liar” and a “fake.” Is this really America? Is the “border fence mindset” really that widespread in the United States?

The success of Trump is a reflection of several factors. First of all, the Republican Party was the true creator of this “monster.” In the past 15 years, there has been a transformation in the Republican Party from its traditional position in favor of small government to one of anti-government sentiment. The party has shut down the government, as well as mocked it. That Republicans have been able to appeal to people’s fear by their fierce criticism of illegal immigrants exposes their racist tendencies. The party has demonized Barack Obama, America’s first black president, despite his adherence to the Democratic Party’s classic liberal stance during his term. The party has described Obama as a “foreigner,” claiming he is a Muslim from Kenya, among other things.

In the last eight years of Democratic control in the White House, the Republicans have made promises to their supporters that they have no realistic way of fulfilling. This has incited the anger of Republican voters, leading them to view Trump as an outsider who will drive change in the party.

In addition, the rise of Trump reflects two big trends among the deeper changes happening in American society. The first is that globalization and technological changes have widened the gap of income inequality. Despite constant growth in the U.S. economy, the unemployment rate has held firm at 4.9 percent, and middle class wage growth has been stagnant. Many workers with low levels of education have had difficulty finding work. The second issue lies in the realm of population. The proportion of whites in America has been steadily decreasing, whereas the share of Latinos, African-Americans and Asians in the American population has been consistently on the rise. This brings out the worst tendencies of voters, leading them to blame everything on the immigrants (never mind that America is a country of immigrants.) Although Trump has declared that he wants to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, the reality is that Mexicans have been flowing out of the United States over the last five years. When confronting the cultural changes of America with fear and anger, the facts are irrelevant.

Thirdly, Trump has been using the people’s fear for his own gain. He proclaims to support free trade, but he is opposed to every trade deal that the United States has reached, because these deals are not what someone as smart as him would negotiate. Trump has taken globalization and the inequalities of supply chain economics then muddled them together, criticizing China, Japan and Mexico, all because the United States has a trade deficit with these countries. These claims do not adhere to the basic principles of economics.

Trump is a naturally talented actor. One need only look at the wide acclaim his TV show received. It is also because of this talent that he obtained his position as a celebrity, and this has played a part in Trump’s appeal as a xenophobic nationalist. However, people overlook many of his casinos that went bust, his bankruptcies and his failed business investments. It is just like Romney said, “A business genius he is not.”

The famous historian Richard Hofstadter wrote the massively influential book “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” a book describing a political trend in America that Trump is presently riding. In our current era, economic growth is slowing down, income inequality is continuing to grow, we are inundated with uncertainty, racial diversity continues to increase and the diffusion of power around the globe is challenging America’s role on the global stage. All of this has made many Americans worried, and as a result has increased the appeal of a nationalism that is emotional and heedless of practical concerns.

In this moment of historical transformation, Trump has put forth the slogan “Make America Great Again.” This slogan evokes the 1950s, when the American economy occupied a dominant role in the world economy, American factories primarily employing white laborers were flourishing, office buildings were constantly sprouting up and American military might led the world. However, Trump does not have a time machine and can neither simply reverse globalization, nor the changes in population that have occurred. This is merely a fantasy with incredible seductive power.

What influence will all of this have on the future of America? Perhaps it will be much smaller than many people imagine. The world ought to remember that the voters casting their ballots in the Republican primaries only make up around 15 percent of the total electorate that will vote in the general election. Trump has only managed to win around one-third of these votes, which is to say that only 4 to 5 percent of the American electorate has voted for him. How Trump will fare in the general election might just be a different story entirely. NBC and The Wall Street Journal have recently carried out a poll, which found that 64 percent of registered voters have a negative impression of Donald Trump. Ordinary intelligence may yet win the day.


【美】罗伯特·A·曼宁:特朗普映射出的“糟糕美国”不真实

美国房地产亿万富翁、电视名人唐纳德·特朗普在共和党总统竞选人初选中的意外崛起向世界展示了美国政治粗鲁、庸俗、任性自大的一面。甚至连许多美国人都为特朗普的吸引力而感到困惑无比,曾被提名为共和党总统候选人的罗姆尼和麦凯恩也公开炮轰特朗普为“骗子”和“冒牌货”。这是一个真实的美国吗?特朗普展现的“围墙心态”在美国普遍吗?

  特朗普的成功反映了几个因素。首先,共和党事实上造就了这个“怪物”。

  在过去15年间,共和党的立场从传统的支持有限政府转变为反政府。它们曾经“关闭”政府,并嘲弄政府。 共和党人在利用人们的恐惧,猛批“非法移民”的同时还显露种族主义倾向;妖魔化美国首位黑人总统奥巴马,尽管他秉持民主党人典型的自由主义立场来治理美国。他们把奥巴马描述为“异类”,来自肯尼亚的穆斯林等等。

  自民主党人过去8年控制白宫以来,共和党人向支持者们许下了一些根本无法实现的承诺。这激怒了许多共和党选民,因此他们把特朗普视作推动改变的外来者。

  其次,特朗普的“崛起”在更深层次上反映了当前美国社会演变的两大趋势。一是因全球化和技术变革带来收入不平等持续拉大。尽管经济不断增长,失业率保持在4.9%,中产阶级的工资收入却停滞不前。许多教育水平不高的工人难以找到工作。二是在人口领域,美国的白人比例越来越低,拉丁裔、黑人和亚裔的人口比例不断增长。这带来了最糟糕的倾向,将一切都归罪于移民(尽管美国是一个移民国家)。虽然特朗普宣称要在美墨边界修建边境墙,但事实是过去5年间墨西哥人在净流出美国。面对文化变革的愤怒和恐惧,事实似乎无关紧要。

  第三,特朗普在利用人们的恐惧。他宣称支持自由贸易,但却反对美国所达成的任何一项贸易协定,因为这些协定都不是像他一样聪明的人谈判达成的。特朗普将全球化和不公平贸易供应链经济混为一谈,批评中国、日本和墨西哥,因为美国与这些国家存在贸易逆差。这些根本不符合基本的经济学常识。

  特朗普是一个天生的演员,这从他广受欢迎的电视秀节目中便可看出,正是这些节目给予他名人地位。这也是他作为排外的民族主义者吸引力的一部分。但人们忽略了特朗普众多倒闭的赌场、破产以及企业投资的失败。正如罗姆尼所称:“他并不是一个商业天才。”

  著名历史学家理查德·霍夫斯塔特曾撰写过极具影响力的《美国政治中的偏执》一书,特朗普正是体现了美国体系中的这一趋势。在我们所处的这个时代,经济增长放缓,收入不平等持续拉大,充斥着不确定性,种族多样性不断加强,权利的全球扩散正在挑战美国的角色。所有这一切都让许多美国人感到忧虑,并由此增加了情绪化、不顾及现实的民粹主义的吸引力。

  在这个变革的历史性时刻,特朗普提出了“让美国再次伟大”的口号。这让人们想起了上世纪50年代,美国当时是世界上占据统治性地位的经济体,以白人工人为主的工厂繁荣无比,写字楼白领不断增加,美国军事实力领先全球。但特朗普没有时间机器,根本不可能逆转全球化或人口演变。 然而,这却是一项颇具诱惑力的空想。

  这一切对美国的未来有何影响?或许要比许多人想象的小。世界应该牢记,只有大约15%的美国选民在共和党初选中投票选择总统候选人。其中,特朗普获得了大约1/3的选票,也就是说,只有4%至5%的美国选民投票给他。特朗普在最后美国大选中的表现如何或许将是一个完全不同的故事。美国全国广播公司和《华尔街日报》最近联合进行的一项民调显示,64%的美国登记选民对特朗普持有负面印象。正常的心智或许仍将取得胜利。
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