In his shocking rise in the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, American billionaire and real estate mogul and TV star Donald Trump has displayed the brash, vulgar, headstrong and arrogant side of American politics. It has gotten to the point where one after another American has become puzzled by Trump’s magnetism, and the former Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and John McCain have openly attacked Trump as a “liar” and a “fake.” Is this really America? Is the “border fence mindset” really that widespread in the United States?
The success of Trump is a reflection of several factors. First of all, the Republican Party was the true creator of this “monster.” In the past 15 years, there has been a transformation in the Republican Party from its traditional position in favor of small government to one of anti-government sentiment. The party has shut down the government, as well as mocked it. That Republicans have been able to appeal to people’s fear by their fierce criticism of illegal immigrants exposes their racist tendencies. The party has demonized Barack Obama, America’s first black president, despite his adherence to the Democratic Party’s classic liberal stance during his term. The party has described Obama as a “foreigner,” claiming he is a Muslim from Kenya, among other things.
In the last eight years of Democratic control in the White House, the Republicans have made promises to their supporters that they have no realistic way of fulfilling. This has incited the anger of Republican voters, leading them to view Trump as an outsider who will drive change in the party.
In addition, the rise of Trump reflects two big trends among the deeper changes happening in American society. The first is that globalization and technological changes have widened the gap of income inequality. Despite constant growth in the U.S. economy, the unemployment rate has held firm at 4.9 percent, and middle class wage growth has been stagnant. Many workers with low levels of education have had difficulty finding work. The second issue lies in the realm of population. The proportion of whites in America has been steadily decreasing, whereas the share of Latinos, African-Americans and Asians in the American population has been consistently on the rise. This brings out the worst tendencies of voters, leading them to blame everything on the immigrants (never mind that America is a country of immigrants.) Although Trump has declared that he wants to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, the reality is that Mexicans have been flowing out of the United States over the last five years. When confronting the cultural changes of America with fear and anger, the facts are irrelevant.
Thirdly, Trump has been using the people’s fear for his own gain. He proclaims to support free trade, but he is opposed to every trade deal that the United States has reached, because these deals are not what someone as smart as him would negotiate. Trump has taken globalization and the inequalities of supply chain economics then muddled them together, criticizing China, Japan and Mexico, all because the United States has a trade deficit with these countries. These claims do not adhere to the basic principles of economics.
Trump is a naturally talented actor. One need only look at the wide acclaim his TV show received. It is also because of this talent that he obtained his position as a celebrity, and this has played a part in Trump’s appeal as a xenophobic nationalist. However, people overlook many of his casinos that went bust, his bankruptcies and his failed business investments. It is just like Romney said, “A business genius he is not.”
The famous historian Richard Hofstadter wrote the massively influential book “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” a book describing a political trend in America that Trump is presently riding. In our current era, economic growth is slowing down, income inequality is continuing to grow, we are inundated with uncertainty, racial diversity continues to increase and the diffusion of power around the globe is challenging America’s role on the global stage. All of this has made many Americans worried, and as a result has increased the appeal of a nationalism that is emotional and heedless of practical concerns.
In this moment of historical transformation, Trump has put forth the slogan “Make America Great Again.” This slogan evokes the 1950s, when the American economy occupied a dominant role in the world economy, American factories primarily employing white laborers were flourishing, office buildings were constantly sprouting up and American military might led the world. However, Trump does not have a time machine and can neither simply reverse globalization, nor the changes in population that have occurred. This is merely a fantasy with incredible seductive power.
What influence will all of this have on the future of America? Perhaps it will be much smaller than many people imagine. The world ought to remember that the voters casting their ballots in the Republican primaries only make up around 15 percent of the total electorate that will vote in the general election. Trump has only managed to win around one-third of these votes, which is to say that only 4 to 5 percent of the American electorate has voted for him. How Trump will fare in the general election might just be a different story entirely. NBC and The Wall Street Journal have recently carried out a poll, which found that 64 percent of registered voters have a negative impression of Donald Trump. Ordinary intelligence may yet win the day.
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