Four Crucial Battlefields of the US-China Strategic Dialogue

From June 6 to 7, the eighth U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue and the seventh Sino-American Cultural Exchange high-level discussions will be held in Beijing. This is the last time the highest level of dialogue and discussion will happen between the U.S. and China during President Obama’s term in office, with the greatest number of high-level officials attending from both sides. Presently, there have been no clear signs of a reduction in mutual distrust between the U.S. and China. America is thoroughly carrying forward its strategy of “rebalance to Asia” in the grim circumstances of the South China Sea military provocation that has become the norm. In seven months the new president will move into the White House, wielding the power to control policy toward China. The direction of the Sino-American relationship is a big question because it concerns not only the U.S. and China, but also the entire world’s peace and prosperity; therefore, it should receive the highest attention.

Special columnist Zeng Zhongrong’s article estimates this round of Sino-American strategic talks will include at least four big topics: namely, the South China Sea; China’s currency, the renminbi; Taiwan; and the U.S.-China Bilateral Investment Treaty. Among these issues, the ones of most interest to the rest of the world will be the South China Sea and the renminbi. The negotiations will inevitably spark disagreement and the discussion will go in different directions as President Obama maintains his unyielding attitude. But, in the face of an excess of serious confrontations between the U.S. and China, more deserving of our focus is whether or not both sides will be able to pragmatically control their disagreements and pursue common interests. This could foretell the future quality of the Sino-American relationship.

This year is already the eighth round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue and because these talks were only facilitated after President Obama took office, this is also possibly the last round. It is already the last year of President Obama’s second term in office, and whether or not these meetings will be convened in the future depends on the attitude that the new president takes. But enveloping this “last dialogue” is nevertheless an unfriendly atmosphere. This is because after stepping into his last year of presidency, Obama has been unlike the previous second-term presidents, Republican George W. Bush or Democrat Bill Clinton, who in their last years of office took a friendly attitude toward China, thereby improving the U.S.-China relationship. This was in order to be able to “play the China card” and maintain influence on both political and economic issues after leaving office.

Not only has Obama not walked the Chinese line; he also has redoubled his efforts to implement his refocus on Asia and policies to contain China. For example, before President Obama’s special representative at the U.S.-China Dialogue, Secretary of State John Kerry, went to Beijing to attend the meetings, he visited Mongolia. The purpose of his visit was to involve Mongolia in the containment of China. There is reason to predict that in Obama’s remaining months in office, more twists and turns will appear in the U.S.-China relationship.

Furthermore, the rest of the world believes that because the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party’s Tsai Ing-wen has become Taiwan’s leader, Beijing will bring up the Taiwan problem at the U.S.-China dialogue, in hopes that they will be able to reach a joint understanding to restrain the Taiwan independence movement. It can be expected that the U.S. and China will have clear views on the Taiwan situation. However, the U.S. viewpoint is such that the Americans are likely only to urge Beijing to have self-restraint and to respect the new government in Taiwan. They will not discuss in depth with the Chinese any countermeasures to deal with Taiwan. After all, since to reinforce Taiwan’s closeness to the U.S. and Japan and its estrangement from the PRC is Obama’s national policy, he will once again create opportunities to restrict Beijing’s control. Therefore, even if the Taiwan issue appears in the U.S.-China dialogue, it will only be to quickly go through the motions.

Even though the circumstances of the U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue are not good, the rest of the world can see clearly from the two sides’ interaction both in and outside the meetings that China and its main attacker, Obama, are able to very pragmatically control their differences and seek their mutual benefit. After all, this is the only way to completely understand how good or bad China’s future relationship with the U.S. will be. Wu Zurong, a researcher at the China Foundation for International Studies, believes that understanding the current situation – that mutual benefits outweigh disagreements, the need to avoid Thucydides’ trap, and the importance of cooperating to accomplish win-win long-term goals – should be the common orientation that Americans and Chinese from all walks of life strive to follow.

First, as both the United States and China possess a wide range of common interests, the space to expand cooperation is immense. Recently, the U.S. and China have become the world’s largest and second largest economies. In resolving the Iranian nuclear problem, facilitating the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change, ensuring global nuclear security and exploring new conduct for Internet security, among other important global affairs which exhibit huge influential power, the U.S. and China show that moving into the tremendous space available for cooperation is of extreme importance to these two countries and the entire world.

Second, there are no winners in Sino-American conflict and confrontation. The U.S., especially the military, has recently issued several irrational and Cold War-like statements to make known their plans of continuing and even intensifying provocative military operations which infringe upon China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea. The U.S. schemes and thinks itself smart, while in fact it overestimates its capabilities and is misjudging the situation. When the timing, geographical conditions, social situation, and other essential factors are all favorable to go to war, the U.S. can only rely on a few of the newest advanced weapons. In such a conflict success is not at all assured. But China and the peace-loving peoples of the world would also have a difficult time obtaining an easy victory. They would inevitably pay a huge price. Perhaps a more impartial estimation is that in a U.S.-China clash neither side wins. It would bring profound disaster to the world.

Third, conscientiously controlling disagreements and seeking for cooperation and mutually profitable outcomes is the only proper direction for the U.S.-China relationship. China has no intention of replacing the U.S. and claiming hegemony over the world. It also will not seek confrontation, conflict, or to completely overthrow the current international order or rules of the game. But, China must uphold its national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it must posses the authority to develop, and it must achieve the Chinese Dream. This is all perfectly justified. No matter how America’s style of containment and interference appears, it is all futile. In the process of China’s development, there are many broad spheres in which the U.S. and China can cooperate to achieve win-win situations. The joint effort to explore constructing a new great power relationship in recent years has already, in its early stages, made large gains. Even though the traditional spheres of influence and vested interests of the U.S. have been touched, the two countries can take tolerant attitudes. By communicating, they can negotiate the resolution of disagreements and find points of common interest. Through the new movements of cooperative exchange they can share the dividends of China’s development and accomplish the great goal of a mutually beneficial win-win situation.