Economic and military development are inseparable. Although the state of world affairs looks less than encouraging, Anders Fogh Rasmussen presents a prescription for recovery — one originating from the Cold War.
The world is in flames and that is why many citizens are pessimistic about the future, says Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former prime minister of Denmark and secretary general of NATO. Civil wars, terrorism and uprisings dominate world politics. Dictatorships, whether they are a result of the Islamic State or in North Korea, compete with democratic systems, according to Rasmussen. Before he sketched a possible way out of this tense global reality, he presented four examples of the possible ways countries can develop: bad, really bad, good and really good. Russia, once the leader of the most powerful military alliance in the world, is on a bad path. The population is facing economic decline and shrinking simultaneously.
Two-thirds of the country’s exports are made up of oil and gas; the climate for investment is not advantageous. In his isolation, President Vladimir Putin is focusing on heavy-handed policy and in doing so, is trying to claim his right to a voice on the global stage, explains Rasmussen. For this, the Russian president is relying on a policy that has been tested many times; conflicts in Moldova, Transnistria and Ukraine were kept smoldering to make neighbors weak and dependent. In Syria, Russia only intervened to show the world that there would be no agreement without Russia. Russia and China’s interests are not aligned but for one point: not letting America become too strong. China is therefore investing a lot of money in Russia’s front yard, Central Asia, to guarantee itself energy resources.
China Needs Peace
China, in contrast, is contributing to positive development of the global state of affairs, in the eyes of the Dane. The country wants to move up, but peacefully. The ruling regime can just hold on if economic growth remains stable. For that, the country needs international stability, also because China must import energy and technology from abroad. That is why the Chinese support U.S.-led economic policy. The Middle Kingdom has lately proven itself to be very agile and able to adapt.*
The Middle East
On the other hand, the Middle East is a mess, and has gotten worse recently, due to social and religious tensions. The population is suffering from catastrophic economic conditions and corrupt governments. All of this is made worse by religious proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya. According to Rasmussen, improving the situation requires three reforms: Inhabitants must be given economic freedom, education must be improved for the populace as a whole, and women’s rights must be strengthened. Up to now, half of the population has been excluded from the labor market. The solution is a Bosnian model for the Middle East, says Rasmussen. Even in Bosnia not everything has been perfect, but the peace has still held. We could be cynical and say that the problem is becoming less dormant, as the importance of the Middle East diminishes, due to the fact that the U.S. is no longer dependent on oil from the region because of shale technology.
Immigration Is Crucial
The most pleasing development is seen by Rasmussen to be in the U.S., even more gratifying because the superpower will lead the world for decades still. With fracking technology, the economic system has become more stable. Furthermore, the U.S. is one of the most productive economies, which can be seen from the fact that of the 25 top brands, 19 are from America, or from the fact that of the 20 best universities, 17 of them are in the United States. China doesn’t appear in either of the rankings. These strengths make the U.S. attractive to immigrants. A fourth of all start-ups are founded by immigrants. This is where Europe could learn a thing or two; here too immigration is needed to maintain growth. However, in our case, it is easier to get welfare than a job, which is the opposite of the situation in America. For Europe, it is nice that we are supporting America on its path. Nevertheless, Europe has recently withdrawn too far inward.
With Roosevelt’s Policy
Regarding the forecast’s prescription, the ex-NATO secretary general in the Dane shows through. The West must defend its rule according the bon mot of President Theodore Roosevelt who said, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” Under American leadership, the West must show that it has a superior social system, which appears to residents of dictatorships as desirable. However, at the same time, the West must also be equipped to protect its inhabitants militarily. Using this recipe, we were able to overcome the Cold War. Rasmussen grants, though, that a Brexit or Donald Trump presidency could endanger this plan.
Reconciliation in the Goldman Sachs Contract
After having served as NATO secretary general, Rasmussen continues to work on the idea of American-European friendship. He founded the Rasmussen Global company for economic and policy consultation. That is how, as a Goldman Sachs consultant, he is attempting to repair relations again between the investment bank and the Danish state. In 2014, the Socialist People’s Party left the Danish government, leading to its fall. The party was angered over the Americans’ entry into the Danish energy supplier Dong.
*Editor’s Note: “Middle Kingdom” or “Middle Country” is the Chinese name for China dating from around 1000 B.C.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.