Trump’s Isolationism Will Be Next American Pitfall

In Europe, the remarkable British referendum known as Brexit has finally won. Some say the referendum came with a lot of support from the Populist Party. Nevertheless, Brexit won and England is now headed down a very uncertain road. On the other side of the Atlantic, the famous and wealthy Donald Trump applauds Brexit’s success. Is it possible that the strength of populism can be used in this year’s American general election to defeat Hillary Clinton? This is presently one of America’s hottest topics. How will the headstrong Donald Trump change the United States if he comes to power?

Can Isolationism Seriously Develop in America Again?

In 1797, first U.S. President George Washington gave his farewell address, in which he provided guidance for his colleagues and fellow Americans. Washington believed that the strategy to preserve favorable conditions in America fell upon two fundamental principles that must be followed: suppression of political party struggles and maintaining a closed door foreign policy. John Adams, Washington’s successor, tried to continue Washington’s legacy, but party struggles continued to grow. These political lines solidified when Thomas Jefferson was elected and national policy with England led to the War of 1812.

In 1919, the United States responded without delay in commanding allied countries in World War I to victory. President Woodrow Wilson was determined to make World War I “the war to end all wars,” and for that he was revered by that generation as a global leader. The success of Red October, which signified the rise of fascism and the global economic crisis, caused Americans to grow incredibly dissatisfied with internationalism. In response, Congress led America into a period of isolationism. It was not until 1941 when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor that the United States opened its eyes toward globalism, and from that point forward continued to take steps to becoming a global superpower.

Presently, it seems America may enter its third period of isolationism. According to many Americans, Republican Donald Trump appears to be nothing more than an inconceivably parochial nationalist. In the recent presidential primaries, Trump won a surprising number of votes and rose victorious as the presumptive Republican Party presidential candidate. Thus far, Trump has said that if he is elected he will carry out the following changes: He will impose a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports; he will withdraw American troops from Japan and Korea; he will permit Japan to develop nuclear weapons; he will leave Europe to defend itself by seceding from NATO; he will prohibit citizens of Muslim countries from entering the United States; and he will build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border, making the Mexican government pay for it.

Trump’s Capabilities Are Limited

If Trump becomes the next United States president by winning the election this November, and if he is not two-timing Americans by saying one thing during his election, only to do something completely different once he is in office, how will he change the national policy of a global superpower like the United States?

We must recognize that American presidents are among the world’s most powerful leaders. Although power in the American democratic system is separated among the legislative, executive and judicial branches through a system of checks and balances, the president can still propose bills, make executive orders and appoint government officials to carry out his will. For instance, Trump can use his power as president to appoint his business partners as foreign ambassadors to advocate his political views. He may also exploit his social media presence in an attempt to sway the country, as well as propose budgets to manipulate foreign policy.

But no matter how much power the constitution gives the president, Trump cannot undermine America’s desire to have a hand in major global affairs and its duty to uphold world peace. Regardless, Congress would most likely stop Trump before he could abuse his power. During Richard Nixon’s presidency, he [Nixon] secretly sent American troops to Cambodia and seriously upset members of Congress. Shortly afterward in 1973, the War Powers Act was enacted to greatly restrict the president’s power to deploy troops within American territories and overseas. During a time of poor Sino-American relations, members of Congress made many attempts to thwart diplomatic relations regarding the Republic of China in Taiwan. It was not until after Nixon’s historic trip to China that a foundation of foreign policy was formed. Congress’ embargo against Cuba was a huge obstacle in the way of normalization of relations with the Cuban government. As a last resort, Congress has the power to impeach the president. Nevertheless, United States foreign policy does not rely solely on the White House and Capitol Hill to make decisions. American companies, media outlets and all kinds of lobbyists can use their power to influence U.S. foreign policy.

During Dwight Eisenhower’s farewell address in 1961, he advised America about the importance of cooperation between the legislative and executive branch and about sustaining the ever-vigilant United States military. If the National Rifle Association can use political donations to manipulate Congress’ stand on firearm regulation, other interest groups can certainly do the same. Although Trump is relying on his own wealth and free media publicity without taking on political debt, interest groups can still use their influence on Congress to thwart Trump.

Just recently, Trump’s campaign decided to bar The Washington Post from covering his campaign events because of the Post’s supposed “inaccurate coverage.” The Post once regarded Nixon as a “sinister force,” and it will spare no effort when it comes to Trump. The joint attack of American media outlets will certainly make Trump reconsider his actions.

Allies Are Concerned Policy Change Will Go Too Far

This year is not 1797, nor is it 1919, but since 1945, the United States has continued to build an international machine — with itself as the engine and the control panel. America’s exit may plunge this machine into chaos and simultaneously provide a variety of extremist groups a rare opportunity to bend the world to their will. While the international machine continues to grow, so do its parts. Many of these parts (regional organizations) require special attention and no substitute would be as powerful a control panel as Washington. For the sake of America’s safety and world peace, it must establish collective safety relationships with other countries. America’s secession from these relationships will only increase the number of threats. In other words, allies are concerned policy changes will go too far.

In short, regardless of how likely Trump is to change foreign policy, his ability is greatly limited. Even if he bursts like a bull into the china shop that is U.S. foreign relations and suppresses American interest groups with his unconventional system, he will only be bashing his way around for four years. Of course, four years of destruction may take 40 years to recover.

The author is Peace and Development co-director for the U.S. Carter Center – International Institute of Xi’an Jiaotong University.