Brexit Forces the US to Seek New Special Allies in Europe

Six months from the end of Barack Obama’s presidency, Europe has once again raised its head as a matter of concern. The decision by Britain to leave the European Union in the recent referendum will without doubt change the United States’ relationship with Europe. With Britain’s departure, Washington has lost its closest ally on issues of the economy, security and espionage. While Obama insists that the so-called “special relationship” with London will endure, Brexit will no doubt force him to forge closer ties with other European countries in order to protect American influence in the region, with Germany and France leading the way as favorites to replace the United Kingdom as the country’s preferred partner. In the coming days the president will embark on a tour of Poland and Spain that is now sure to be marked by the British vote.

The United States’ pivot to Asia has been one of Obama’s primary foreign policy objectives. In his first term he found himself hindered in this regard by the European economic crisis and the Arab Spring protests, while in his second term, the threat posed by jihadi terror has led to increased U.S. military involvement in the Middle East. Following the Brexit vote, the president will now have to focus much more on Europe, as will his potential Democratic successor in the White House, Hillary Clinton, who proposes a continuation of Obama’s foreign policy. She is set to go head to head with Republican Donald Trump, who has applauded the British decision and championed a more isolationist foreign policy.

Fiona Hill, an English native who has spent the last 27 years in the U.S., is one of Washington’s most highly regarded specialists on transatlantic relations. Hill, director of the U.S. and Europe Center of the Brookings Institution, believes that Brexit is “a big blow” for the U.S. and for Europe and adds that “without a doubt the U.K. was viewed as an anchor in the relationship because of their shared vision on a wide range of political, economic and security issues.”*

The U.K. has been a key cog in the institutional machinery established by the U.S. and Europe after World War II; rarely does London not give its backing to one of Washington’s global initiatives. Britain’s EU departure does not necessarily have to alter that machinery but it could well have an effect on transatlantic relations in a time of enormous challenges, such as those faced by NATO in the form of an expansionist Russia, in attempts to forge a new EU-U.S. trade agreement and in cooperation on jihadi terror.

The Obama administration has admitted that it did not expect Britain to vote to leave the EU on June 23. The president, who himself campaigned for a “Remain” vote, has reacted to the decision with both calls for calm and a dose of realism. He has asked that the U.K. and the EU negotiate an orderly transition and has underlined that the longstanding relationship between the U.S. and its former colonial ruler will not change thanks to the cultural and economic ties that the two countries enjoy, as well as their cooperation on the world stage as members of NATO and the United Nations Security Council. However, he has admitted that the uncertainty generated by Brexit has unsettled the world’s number one power: “We are worried that Britain’s departure from the EU and the subsequent potential changes that will take place within the EU will make it harder to find solutions to other existing challenges,” Obama said.*

Hill, from the Brookings Institution, has recommended that the U.S. diversify its alliances on the old continent. She believes that it must help the EU and the U.K. to build bridges while simultaneously strengthening relations with its current key partners of Germany and France and with other regional powers like Italy and Spain.

Hill, however, also believes that in the short term Washington will struggle to find a partner of London’s stature when it comes to the issue of espionage. The U.K. is one of the four English-speaking countries with which the U.S. shares confidential information through the “Five Eyes” alliance. After the controversy of 2013, when former National Security Agency analyst Edward Snowden disclosed that the U.S. had been spying on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the country’s offers of increased intelligence sharing with Germany have been met with caution. Berlin is also more reluctant than either London or Paris to commit to military action.

Carles Castelló-Catchot, a Spaniard who is chief of staff at the Atlantic Council’s Brent-Scrowcroft Center, a Washington think tank, believes that in Britain’s absence, Germany and France will become the U.S.’s strongest EU partners with a further strengthening of the closeness established between the nations in recent years. “I don’t see any other options – Spain has enough on its plate domestically, Italy is still coming out of both political and economic crises, the Eastern European countries already have enough with Russia and the Scandinavian countries are less involved,” Castelló-Catchot said.*

In recent times, Obama has been in no doubt as to whom he should call when it comes to the largest issues facing Europe – Angela Merkel. Throughout the course of the crises in both Greece and Ukraine, and on the issue of European reforms, Germany has become the U.S.’s preferred European partner, with France cementing its place as a key ally in the fight against terrorism.

However, what remains to be seen is whether or not Washington will be able to hold the same sway in Berlin and Paris as in London, with whom it sees more eye to eye on the issues of economic liberalism and military interventionism. Another question is just how the U.S.’s relationship with London will develop once it completes the process of leaving the EU. “Obviously they will no longer be the U.S.’s number one partner when it comes to the EU. In one, two or five years the U.S. will be more in contact with the Germans and the French because in reality they are the ones who will be able to help you on the issues of international security and economic integration; one other thing that will be lost is the human aspect, the diplomatic contacts,” states Castelló-Catchot. “If Brexit does indeed materialize, the special relationship will deteriorate because it will be less useful – only time will tell if the historic or security ties will be enough to maintain it.”*

*Editor’s note: Although accurately translated, this quote could not be independently verified.