Duel of the Unpopular

Trump and Clinton are competing in a TV duel. On paper, Clinton is the favorite. However, many viewers do not want to be informed, but rather entertained.

It is not as if there has been a lack of bizarre events up to now. However, the battle of the potential successors to U.S. President Barack Obama is heading for a high point. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will meet on Monday evening for the first of three televised debates. Traditionally the hot phase of the election begins with that debate, which is promising to be even hotter this year than in the past decades.

For the first time a woman is competing to become president for one of the two main U.S. parties. For the first time, the opposing candidate is not a politician, but rather a populist business man. For the first time, both candidates are more unpopular than almost any previous contender. For the first time, the number of viewers could exceed 100 million. It will be “bigger than the moon landing, the World Cup, the Super Bowl, the Olympics, and the latest royal wedding,” predicts Paul Begala, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton. This is, of course, typical of the exaggeration that is standard practice on the U.S. political scene. However, a kernel of truth is hiding in the prophecy, since more important than a probable record number of viewers, a preliminary decision will certainly be made, whether the superpower will be ruled in the future by an old style politician or by a political novice with experience in the real estate business and reality TV.

On paper, Clinton is the clear favorite. She has decades of experience in politics; she was first lady, a senator, and secretary of state. She was already taking care of state business while Trump was still working on earning his reputation as a shrill eccentric in New York real estate.

Clinton, 68, is practiced in the art of debate. In the last year she was publicly interrogated for 11 hours by Republican congressional representatives, who attempted to assign the ex-secretary of state responsibility for the deaths of four Americans during an attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya. After 11 hours, she left the hearing victorious.

Her enormous expertise, her knowledge of detail, and her inclination to answer questions too completely and thereby too complicatedly, could, however, put Clinton at a disadvantage during the 90-minute televised debate. She does indeed have a platform that in contrast to Trump’s, stands up to scrutiny, but that may be of secondary importance, as many viewers in the U.S. turn on the TV duel not just because they want to be informed, but rather because they want to be entertained.

In this entertainment specialty, by contrast, the 70-year-old Trump is a master. Real estate businesses secured him his wealth, but he won his fame as the host of the shallow reality show “The Apprentice.” He got through the primary election against 16 candidates from the Republican camp with a mixture of avoiding the facts, lies, insults and attacks against his opponents and entire groups of people in the United States.

In contrast to Clinton, Trump has no experience with one-on-one debates, but he knows the impact of television. He has also understood like no other candidate how to pick up on the prevailing mood which pervades all voter categories this year: the term “political establishment,” to which Clinton without a doubt belongs, has become a dirty word. Politicians are no longer trusted to solve the problems of the country. This is why Trump is so successful—because he sells himself as a non-politician.

However, both candidates are unpopular with voters. The former secretary of state is seen as detached, too artificial, and for many Americans, as a politician for whom a different law applies than for normal citizens. She has an e-mail scandal hanging around her neck, and her description of a part of Trump’s supporters as “a basket of deplorables” has not made her more popular.

Added to that is the business of the secrecy surrounding her collapse a few days ago. That is enough material for Trump to attack his competitor. He himself is more unpopular than Clinton, according to polls, but surprisingly that has not seemed to do him any harm so far.

If the information from her circle is correct, then Clinton wants to try to provoke Trump. She would like to get him to fly off the handle and behave badly. Trump, on the other hand, must seem presidential in order to appeal to undecided voters. Scholars like Larry Sabato even say, “it’s possible that he’ll seem more presidential so long as he is coherent and doesn’t say anything totally outrageous.”

However, it is questionable if he will manage that. Recently, Trump threatened to invite Gennifer Flowers to the debate. Clinton’s husband, Bill, had an affair with her decades ago. That would not be presidential, but the headlines after the debate would favor Trump. No matter how good a fight Clinton puts up.