Trump’s Changing Strategy on the Wall Opens the First Fissures in Republican Ranks

The partial closure of the government presents a crisis without any sign of a solution to the United States, which has just begun a stage of divided power. Donald Trump’s changing strategy in his migration remarks has already caused the first splits in the Republican ranks: Two senators have asked for a solution, looking at the possibility of not authorizing the funds that the president is asking for to close the border with Mexico.

The problem is that everything indicates that Trump, already in campaign mode, is more interested in the battle for the wall than the wall itself.

Nearly 800,000 federal officials are at home or working without pay. National parks and museums are closed; volunteers are cleaning public spaces; housing subsidies are frozen; marriage licenses and death certificates are suspended. The partial closure of the government, which this Sunday enters its third week, is already the longest in six years, the first in history that extends through two Congresses, and is three days away from becoming the longest-lasting since 1980.

The Trump migratory wager and the refusal of the Democratic members of Congress to approve his request for $5 billion to finance the wall with Mexico have unleashed a regulatory crisis in every sector, above all because it has no sign of being resolved in the short term. The two parties are unwavering in their positions: an early example of what the newly begun power-sharing era could bring, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives after the legislative elections last November. Republicans maintain control of the Senate with 53 seats compared to 47.

Trump met this Friday, again, with the Democratic leaders of Congress to try to find a way out. But there is not much wiggle room, given the president’s insistence that he will not sign any law that does not include funds for his wall, a proposal that the new speaker of the House, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, dismisses flat out as immoral.

The president, according to the Democratic leaders leaving the meeting, threatened to maintain the partial closure of the government for “months or even years” in order to finance the wall with Mexico, his key electoral promise.

“So, we told the president we needed the government open. He resisted. In fact, he said he would keep it closed for a very long period of time, months or even years, ” said Chuck Schumer, leader of the Democratic minority in the Senate, who attended the meeting with Pelosi. Both have defined the meeting as “lengthy and sometimes contentious.” The president, for his part, has spoken of a “productive” meeting.

Trump’s changing strategy has caused the first fissures in the Republican ranks. Sen. Cory Gardner became the first Republican on Thursday to call for an end to the crisis, with or without funding for the wall. He was followed by Sen. Susan Collins, who said she would support isolating the border security part and approving funds to allow the reopening of the other affected agencies, as proposed by the Democrats in the initiative they passed on Thursday in the lower house.

Both senators, he from Colorado and she from Maine, share something: They represent vulnerable states for Republicans, and they will stand for re-election in 2020 (in the Senate a third of the seats are up for election every two years).

Stonewalling while their voters suffer the consequences of the closure is not the best trick to get the votes of the undecided.

Also, Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader of the Senate, occupies a seat that will face re-election in 2020. But his strategy to date has been to step aside, claiming, not without reason, that the president is the one Democrats must negotiate with; the president, after all, has the right to veto legislation approved by Congress. Moving away from the battle, McConnell hoped to shift the responsibility of closure to the Democrats and thus protect the Republican senators that face re-election.

But with an advantage of only three votes in the Senate – only one if we discount the critics – the first indications of rebellion make the strategy less sustainable.

The problem is that everything indicates that, for Trump, the battle for the wall is more important than the wall itself. In fact, not long ago he spoke of a barrier of “steel slats,” and his recently resigned chief of staff, John Kelly, said that the administration long ago abandoned the idea of a concrete wall. But the president, already in campaign mode for 2020, with popularity ratings that are around 40 percent, cannot afford to loosen ties with his base now. And the discourse on immigration policy has proven to be the most effective instrument of cohesion for Trumpism.