North Korea and China Are Extremely Close, While the South Korean-American-Japanese Relationship is Weakening

Published in SE Daily
(South Korea) on 8 January 2019
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sean Kim. Edited by Eric Stimson.
On Jan. 7, North Korean President Kim Jong Un made a surprise visit to China after being invited by its president, Xi Jinping. This is his fourth visit to China since North Korea began denuclearization negotiations with the United States last year. It is impossible not to take notice of the fact that Kim, along with United Front Work Department head Kim Yong Chol and prominent North Korean diplomatic security, national defense and economic aides left on this four-day trip to China not even a day after U.S.President Donald Trump revealed that the United States and North Korea were negotiating a location for their next summit. It is easy to conclude that Trump and Kim J are not far from their second round of negotiations.

It is likely that the intent behind Kim’s visit to China is to get Xi’s advice while simultaneously showing off his close relationship with China to the United States in preparation for the upcoming talks with Trump. Both China, in its attempt to expand its influence in northeast Asia, and North Korea, in its attempt to guide its summit with the United States to benefit itself, intend to use each other as leverage against the U.S. It seems that North Korea’s relationship to China has become so close in recent years that it is almost difficult to compare it to that of the past. If the next summit between the U.S. and North Korea produces no results, it is possible that northeastern Asia could be brought into a new Cold War pitting South Korea, America and Japan against North Korea, China and Russia.

In order to deal with the close relationship between North Korea and China, as well as achieve complete denuclearization in North Korea, stable cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan is absolutely necessary. However, in reality, the opposite is happening. Controversy and disagreement over denuclearization and the payment of defense costs has strained South Korea’s relationship with the States. Some say that there is a possibility of a partial or even complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea. The South Korean relationship with Japan is also being pushed to its limits as disagreements happen in quick succession, like the radar lock-on dispute* and the dispute over the recent court ruling to seize Japanese assets in South Korea as compensation for victims of the colonial Japanese sex slave draft. This situation, which would not be favorable even if these countries all worked together, has become a cause of even more worry because of the affected nations’ disorganization.

If the current situation is ignored, there is a chance that the complete denuclearization of North Korea may never be achieved. We must restore cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan before it’s too late. Although the differences in perspective between these nations may be too large to solve their individual problems, everyone must work together to solve the shared problem of North Korean denuclearization. We are obligated to bring the era of conflict and disarray, of war and destruction to an end and establish a permanent era of peace on the Korean Peninsula.

*Editor's note: The radar lock-on dispute centers around an incident in the sea between Japan and Korea on Dec. 20, in which a South Korean naval destroyer allegedly locked fire-control radar on a nearby Japanese naval surveillance plane.


김정은 북한 국무위원장이 시진핑 중국 국가주석 초청으로 7일 전격 방중했다. 북한 비핵화 국면에 돌입한 지난해 이후 네 번째 중국 방문이다. 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 “2차 북미정상회담 개최 장소를 협의하고 있다”고 밝힌 지 하루도 안 돼 김 위원장이 김영철 통일전선부장을 포함한 외교안보·국방·경제 라인 핵심측근들을 대동하고 나흘간 중국에 머무니 관심이 집중될 수밖에 없다. 트럼프와 김정은 간 2차 담판이 멀지 않았다는 분석이 나오는 것도 당연하다.

김 위원장의 방중에는 트럼프 대통령과의 담판을 앞두고 시 주석의 조언을 받음과 동시에 양측의 밀월을 미국에 과시하려는 의도가 다분하다. 동북아에서 영향력을 확대하려는 중국과 북미정상회담을 유리하게 이끌려는 북한이 서로 미국에 대한 지렛대로 삼으려는 속셈이 내포돼 있는 셈이다. 북한과 중국 간 밀착도가 예전과 비교하기 힘들 정도로 높아졌다는 분석도 나온다. 북미정상회담에서 성과를 거두지 못한다면 동북아를 둘러싼 정세가 한미일 대 북중러의 신냉전으로 치달을 수도 있음이다.

북중 밀월에 대응하고 완전한 비핵화를 이루려면 한미일 간의 흔들림 없는 공조는 필수다. 하지만 현실은 반대로 흘러가고 있다. 한미관계는 비핵화 선후관계를 둘러싼 논란에 방위비 분담까지 겹쳐 동맹에 금이 가고 있다. 일각에서는 주한미군 감축이나 철수 가능성까지 거론되는 형국이다. 한일관계도 ‘레이더 사태’와 강제징용 판결 같은 악재가 잇따르며 최악 국면으로 치닫고 있다. 똘똘 뭉쳐도 시원찮을 판에 사분오열하고 있으니 우려스럽다.

현 상태를 방치한다면 북한의 완전한 비핵화는 영영 이룰 수 없는 과제로 남을지 모른다. 더 늦기 전에 한미일 공조를 복원할 방안을 마련해야 한다. 개별 사안에 대해서는 입장 차가 너무 커 해결할 수 없다 하더라도 북핵이라는 공동의 문제에 대해서만큼은 분리 대응하는 묘안이 필요하다. 우리에게는 대립과 갈등, 전쟁과 파괴의 시대를 종식하고 한반도에 영구적 평화체제를 구축해야 할 의무가 있다.
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