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Trump Is Shaking in His Boots

June 29, 2019

Published in El Pais
(Spain) on 22 June 2019
by Lluis Bassets (link to original link to original)

Translated from by Brandee McGee. Edited by Nkem Okafor.

Donald Trump always gets ahead of himself. The little credibility he had as commander in chief is easily slipping away and has been trashed with a matter as dangerous as the capacity to inflict military intimidation. We already knew that the enormous destructive power of the United States rests in the hands of an irritable and erratic individual, informed by gut feelings and temperament. But this week, we have witnessed the most terrifying scenario: Trump vacillating about pushing the button.

Once he gave the order, this dangerous generalissimo called it off, justifying it on the grounds that he did not like the possibility an estimated 150 people would die. Had he suddenly discovered his conscience? It’s doubtful, because that same day he continued to threaten Iran with war that would obliterate the country. So 150,000 deaths, or 1.5 million deaths instead of 150?

Washington is not a trustworthy partner. The concept of acting predictably is foreign to Trumpism. This crisis proves it. The real estate magnate has been creating crisis all by himself since he won the 2016 election. Encouraged by his Saudi and Israeli friends, Trump proposed destroying the Persian country, which would prevent it from engaging internationally and being tossed into the hands of radicals. It started with the unilateral rupture of the 2015 agreement that headed off construction of an Iranian nuclear bomb, which prompted Tehran to employ its next available weapon, control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world’s commercial oil circulates. Iran also announced it would resume its nuclear program.

This crisis caught up to Trump when his acting secretary of defense resigned, leaving no available military in the area and a complex and deactivated state of diplomacy, along with intelligence agencies such as the CIA and FBI which were openly disregarding the Oval Office. This is all a test for the empire of chaos that the president’s family has created in the White House.

Trump is playing two contradictory cards. On the one hand, making military threats to North Korea, Venezuela and now Iran, and on the other hand, dealing with an aversion to military commitments abroad. He does not want to approach the 2020 presidential election with the burden of a third world war in the Middle East following Afghanistan and Iraq. Neither is it in his interest to create the image of a president who is undecided and capable of losing a war before it is declared.

Anyone facing this dilemma would grow weak in the knees, including Trump.

Donald Trump siempre se supera a sí mismo. Calado con la gorra de comandante en jefe, ha tirado el resto de credibilidad que le quedaba en una materia tan peligrosa como la capacidad de intimidación militar. Ya sabíamos que la fuerza destructiva colosal de Estados Unidos se hallaba en manos de alguien atrabiliario y errático, guiado por sus corazonadas y su temperamento. Pero desde esta pasada semana ya conocemos el escenario más temible, el de las vacilaciones trumpistasante el botón de la guerra.

Una vez dada la orden, este peligroso generalísimo la ha suspendido, según sus explicaciones por alergia al previsto balance de 150 muertos. ¿Habrá descubierto súbitamente su conciencia? Es dudoso, porque ayer mismo volvió a amenazar a los iraníes con una guerra para obliterar su país. ¿150.000 o 1.500.000 muertos en vez de 150?

Washington ya no es un socio fiable. La virtud de la previsibilidad es ajena al trumpismo. Lo prueba esta crisis, construida a pulso desde que el magnate inmobiliario ganó las elecciones. Alentado por sus amigos saudíes e israelíes, Trump se propuso arruinar al país persa, evitar su apertura al mundo y echarlo en brazos de los radicales. Empezó con la ruptura unilateral del acuerdo que evitaba la construcción de la bomba nuclear iraní, con el resultado de que Teherán esgrime ahora el arma que tiene más a mano, como es el control del estrecho de Ormuz, por donde circula una tercera parte del comercio petrolero mundial, mientras también anuncia la reanudación de su programa atómico.

A Trump le pilla esta crisis con el secretario de Defensa dimitido, sin militares en su entorno, con una diplomacia acomplejada y desactivada, y unas agencias de seguridad, la CIA y el FBI especialmente, abiertamente despreciadas desde el Salón Oval. Es toda una prueba para el imperio del caos que ha construido la familia del presidente en la Casa Blanca.

Trump esgrime dos cartas contradictorias: por una parte, la amenaza militar —a Corea del Norte, Venezuela y ahora a Irán— y por la otra, su aversión a los compromisos militares en el exterior. No quiere llegar a las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 con el fardo de la tercera gran guerra en Oriente Próximo, después de Afganistán e Irak. Tampoco le conviene la imagen de un presidente dubitativo y con remordimientos de conciencia, capaz de perder la guerra antes de declararla.

A cualquiera que se enfrentara este dilema le temblarían las piernas. También a Trump.

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