Thinking the Unthinkable

Democrats believe that only a landslide victory in the November election could prevent a crisis. If the second wave of COVID-19 in the fall is serious, Republicans could call for postponing the election.

A president like Donald Trump, who calls for rebellion against quarantine in states with Democratic governors and who tweets “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” “LIBERATE MINNESOTA!” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA,” seems capable of refusing to abide by the results of the November presidential election. This would be unprecedented, aside from a Republican governor from Texas who barricaded himself in his office for three days in 1874. Until now, this was an inconceivable scenario for the U.S., but with Trump, not anymore. There are dangerous signs aside from his jokes about living in the White House for 20 years. After his 2016 victory, he accused Hillary Clinton of fraud and claimed that millions had voted illegally. This time, he is on the inside, and will have to be removed from the Oval Office.

Michael Cohen, his former personal lawyer, who is now in prison, warned about this during one of his hearings before Congress: “There will never be a peaceful transition of power,” he said. The Democrats are preparing for this scenario. They believe that only a landslide victory could prevent a crisis. Trump’s Twitter account is further cause for concern that he would use it to call on his followers to defend the White House. We are dealing with a situation involving 30 million unemployed people.

Trump could declare a massive fraud and challenge the November results in court, in the hope that a conservative-controlled Supreme Court agrees with him. There is the precedent of Florida’s hanging chad ballots in 2000, a ruling which handed George W. Bush the presidency. That involved one state. Come November, there could be lawsuits in a dozen states.

No Immunity

The 20th Amendment of the Constitution states in Section 1 that the terms of the president and vice president end on Jan. 20 at noon the year after the election. Between the election and the transfer of power, the president could not use the Secret Service or the military to protect himself. Once he is out of the White House, he loses immunity from prosecution.

We are dealing with a dangerous, divisive and reckless president who feels cornered by an unexpected situation. Although the election is more than half a year away, the polls are starting to turn their back on him. It is not just his crazy ideas about injecting disinfectant and his childish wish to find a magic switch that will make the nightmare vanish, but the sense that he only cares about his own fate, not people’s health.

He risks losing some key states on which his presidency hinges: Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Minnesota. There is no White House without them. The polls predict a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives, while alarms are already going off in the Senate. His three-seat majority is now in danger. The party reeks of fear: Trump can either win or drag Republicans into the debacle.

Nightmare Scenario

Epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, adviser to the president, said this week that the country should be prepared for a bad autumn and a bad winter. He is referring to the second wave of COVID-19. Such a possibility would constitute a nightmare scenario, for it would complicate the campaign and maybe even ballot box voting. Apart from wanting to set the economy in motion, Trump also wants to hold his rallies with audiences in the thousands. A public health issue is hard to resolve.

Under extreme circumstances, absentee and postal ballots, as well as early voting, would be used to prevent crowds from forming on Nov. 3. Governor will have to deal with the small print. There are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors. In some states, such as Texas, the census has been purged, there has been redistricting, and dozens of polling sites have been removed, thus making it harder for minorities to vote.

The president is the sort of individual who plays both sides of the fence, tweeting one thing and then its opposite in order to have a fallback position handy and to argue that he had already made the point. He is already talking about manipulation of the election, it’s his wildcard for the night of Nov. 3.

If the second wave of COVID-19 were to be serious, Republicans would call for postponing the election, something impossible to do without the Democratic approval. There is an 1845 federal law which sets the date as “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in the month of November.” An election can be moved, as long as it has no impact on the time and day of the inauguration. Would the Republican Party follow Trump in an effort to endanger U.S. democracy? It is worth remembering that we are already immersed in a dystopia whose ending is yet unwritten.