The Rise and Fall of Donald Trump

The desire of the American right to return to the presidency led to Trump’s candidacy, despite warning signs and opposition from many sides of the conservative movement. Now it seems that a high price was paid for victory.

January 2016 was not a good month for the American right. After seven years of Barack Obama, the Republicans, both politicians and supporters, were ready for change. They were angry about the Democratic president’s health care policy, about the arrogant speeches that he constantly gave, and about a foreign policy which they saw as directly responsible for the chaos and death that enveloped the Middle East. The dream to see a Republican – any Republican – in the White House, burned in the heart of every active member and every right-wing voter. In 2015, a group of no less than 17 hopefuls entered the ring, each of whom hoped to easily win the White House by means of this political fervor. The fact that the Democratic establishment already saw in Hillary Clinton, who, for the Republicans, constituted a symbol of political corruption, a candidate for the presidency, made the job even more desirable. Who the hell could lose in a race like this?

A series of debates and a respectable number of polls were enough to narrow down the list of candidates and indicate the direction in which the Republicans were headed. In the beginning of 2016, a few weeks before the primaries officially began, the narrative was already prepared. People from the media and the political establishment reasoned that the primaries would be a contest between mainstream Republicans led by candidates such as Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Jeb Bush, and the more religious conservative, more grassroots voters who would see Cruz as their ideal candidate. The proponents of the narrative were not bothered by the fact that there was another candidate with an unclear base, a candidate who had taken first place in every survey and had good results in almost every debate. In a list of so many young, tested and talented candidates, why would the public want a 70-year-old reality TV star from Queens?

The Road to Victory

However, as time passed, the outsider’s polling lead continued to advance. He was vulgar and rude in the debates. He made despicable attacks on his political opponents at rallies, raising every red flag along the way. The political network continued to demonstrate calm, and the mainstream media did not report any great shock. But many political pundits from the right saw the warning signs and decided to do something. And so, at the end of January, the National Review, a veteran right wing political journal, dedicated an entire issue to the rebellious candidate. With the words “Against Trump” the headline reflected the essence of the political conversation for years to come.

Twenty-two editors, writers and commentators, senior intellectuals of American conservatism, came out with a clear call: Vote for any one, just not Trump. And the reasons were varied. Trump was, until recently, a Democrat. You couldn’t trust him. He was involved in too many scandals, and surrendering to his nationalist-populist policies would damage the conservative movement for many years. But the central claim against him was summarized best by the journalist and commentator Jonah Goldberg: Character is destiny.

These words, attributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus, defined exactly what would happen, according to Goldberg and others, if Trump won in the primaries and was then able to win the White House. Perhaps he would fulfill a few promises, appoint the “best people” as central advisers around him. Perhaps he would appoint dozens or hundreds of conservative judges, including one or two justices to the Supreme Court. Maybe he would be able to destroy Obama’s health care law, expel immigrants in the country illegally, and even lower taxes. But Trump’s personality – the lies, the consistent inability to focus on policy, his aggression toward allies – this character would, at the end of the day, determine his fate, and maybe also the fate of the United States for a long time.

The issue created a firestorm. The National Review rescinded its sponsorship of the next Republican debates, and Trump and his allies excoriated the publication. The writers who dared to come out against him were attacked in the media day and night, and as Trump continued to solidify his victory, journalists were forced to watch as former friends moved over to support the future candidate and join the attacks against them.

Another movement arose in opposition to the “Never Trumpers,” as Trump’s opponents were called, which emphasized the need for a victory, and even more than that, emphasized the need for taking vengeance on the Democrats for the long years which had passed since there had been a Republican president in the White House. In Trump they saw an ideal candidate to “drain the swamp” that was Washington, a leader who would come from outside and would be able to do what was necessary without unnecessary politics. If anyone pointed out his tendency to attack others, the answer was, “so what? He’s a fighter, isn’t that what we want?” If someone mentioned his conflicting, sometimes crazy promises about the steps that he would take the minute he entered the Oval Office, they were told, “Take his words seriously, but not literally.”

But of course, more than any ideological justification, an increasing number of conservatives joined the Trump express for the simple reason that he started winning, and there is nothing like being on the winning side.

We know how the story ends. The struggle between the two groups continued and got worse, but support for him rose in the Trump camp as it became clear that he was going to win the nomination. Having no other choice, the moderate group which evolved within the Republican Party decided to support the president in the general election, because he was, of course, preferable to Clinton; and who knows, maybe he would also be able to implement a few conservative policies. Trump opponents in the Republican Party were divided into those who went crazy, defected to the Democratic Party and declared holy war on the Republicans, and those who sighed, went home and waited to see what would happen.

Bull in a China Shop

Over a little less than three years, it seems that the moderate group was right in the end. Trump came into the White House with a bang. With all his excessive talk, destructive speeches, frequent changes of opinion, the ever more frequent firings of senior White House officials, he was able to do a little good. The two Supreme Court justices he named to the Supreme Court will hand down conservative judgments for the next 30 years, if not more. Trump flipped the relationship with Israel and the Middle East from one extreme to the other, and he even managed to lower taxes. The scandals came and went as well as the attempts to remove him from office. An objective observer might expect Trump to win a second term, during which he could continue to talk too much and do only the minimum required to get his party’s support.

But then came the coronavirus, and with it, violent protests and general cultural upheaval. Now, about three months shy of the anniversary of the election which shook America, it seems that Trump’s character has met its predictable fate.

Trumpian capriciousness is not only annoying, it actively interferes with the government’s effort to convey a clear message to the public. His inability to focus on policy, especially on any one policy, cuts off any effort to form a unified response to COVID-19. His inability to focus also prevents him from solving another problem: eradicating violence on the streets of America. His narcissism makes it impossible for him to simply acknowledge that maybe he was wrong when he compared COVID-19 to the common cold, as many on the far right are still treating the virus with scorn and derision.

The deal that the Republicans wanted to make – four (or eight) years of right wing policy at the cost of putting a very aggressive bull in the shop filled with fragile china that is the executive branch – is coming to seem like a serious mistake. Forget ethics or philosophy; just from a political point of view. Trump is likely to cost Republicans not only the presidency but the House of Representatives and the Senate for the next decade. Did you think Obama was bad? His left was significantly more moderate.

In the last few months Trump has been presented with one political opportunity after another on a silver platter, opportunities that any president dreams of. And each time, he has cast it aside so that he could gaze at his own reflection in the bright and shiny tray. If you thought that a loss in the upcoming November election will stop his horrifying performance, think again. Trump can run for president again in 2024.