The Reality Behind Trump’s Mask

Around 100 days away from the election, Trump knows that his approval rating in some of the swing states is far from guaranteeing him a new term

After a long period of reluctance, Donald Trump agreed to appear in public wearing a mask. In fact, he went as far as to recommend wearing this form of protection in certain circumstances. It’s a welcome change, but one that has more to do with the difficulties he is facing to get reelected than with the growing number of infections and deaths in the country that has fallen to him to (mis)govern.

Indeed, around 100 days away from the election, Trump knows that his approval rating in some of the swing states is far from guaranteeing him a new term. In other words, states that were on his side in 2016 seem to be leaning toward the Democrat candidate this time, a factor that is not unrelated to the presidential position in the face of the pandemic.

In the first week of Nov., in accordance with the first-past-the-post voting system, the winner receives all of a state’s electoral votes in all but two states, regardless of the margin of the victory. That is why Trump knows he will not have to worry about states with a Republican stronghold and that traditional Democrat strongholds are not worth his focus. He will be reelected only if he secures almost all of the swing states, namely the six states where he won or lost by less than 2%.

Four years ago, it was less than 100,000 votes in three states — Michigan (16 delegates), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (20) — that ended up making the difference. It did not matter that Hillary Clinton had received more votes than Trump overall. It must be remembered that the U.S. does not have a national voting constituency, and thus, there have already been four confirmed cases historically in which the president-elect received fewer votes than his opponent.

Returning to the impact of the new coronavirus on the American presidential election: Trump’s initial stance aimed to completely downplay the threat. He directed focus to the economy and treated COVID-19 as though it were a minor flu. He got angry with anyone who tried to draw attention to reality by refusing to listen to the experts. The usual reaction of a populist who has been trying to have a monopoly on reason since he came to power.

He then looked to create subterfuges to anchor his position. Another typical populist strategy. The coronavirus became the Chinese virus and supporters of identity and cultural populism applauded. He withdrew the U.S. from the World Health Organization and nationalists concurred. Except that it did not take long for the virus to call Trump’s populist strategy into question. In a country with no national health system, the health protection measures that were taken during Obama’s presidency proved insufficient to control the pandemic.

Three months away from being called to the polls, American citizens are faced with more than 3 million cases of infection and nearly 150,000 dead. A hell that Trump continues to downplay, albeit in a less arrogant tone.

In Portugal, during the Estado Novo (New State) period, some dead people voted. In the U.S., in the current scenario, many dead people will vote, though indirectly. It is likely that Trump’s mask will be like the vaccine against the new coronavirus. For many, it comes too late.