Trump: Powerful, but No Strongman

The three-word slogans starting with a verb are the currency of populism; “Let’s get control back” and “Let’s build a wall” served the Anglo-American wing of this movement in 2016. The leaders become very garrulous when they are in power. And the subordinates, these patient listeners, encourage bad habits — but one of U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent successful tweets was in much shorter format. “’OPEN THE SCHOOLS!!!’ shouted the U.S. president, triggering 400 thousand retweets in 24 hours,” writes Janan Ganesh for the Financial Times.

The mood, as you will notice, is the opposite of authoritarian. But, consider Trump’s first reaction to COVID-19: the delays in imposing quarantine and encouraging or even respecting the wearing of masks. This is also the stance of the White House on fiscal incentives; Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council is concerned about the lack of stimulus for work. Whatever that may instill, it is not a harsh intervention.

Even before being elected, the liberals considered Trump as, above all, authoritarian. In her new book, “Twilight of Democracy,” writer Anne Applebaum, is not the only one who ranks Trump among the likes of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

This analytical dexterity would not matter if it did not lead to false hope. It suggests that if Trump gets defeated in the November elections, it would be a rejection of autocracy. After a bleak demi-decade, the free society will have a public statement upon which it can build: “Depriving us of our freedoms will be at your expense,” leaders will hear from the voters.

This thought is so reassuring that it is regrettable that it is wrong. Trump is about to lose these elections, but not because of his authoritarianism. On the contrary, his cowardice is the reason that junked public confidence. His passive approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (the U.S. has suffered 150,000 deaths) has turned people’s attitudes strongly against Trump, and not his more conventional, harsh actions. Following Trump’s bitter treatment toward migrants on the Mexican border, his approval ratings remained unchanged. After his various travel bans, his popularity has recovered. After his tirades against journalists, judges, civil servants and those who investigate or testify against him, he ultimately had an equal chance of being reelected.

It is true, however, that his aggressive response to the protests in the summer was unpopular. But even before that, Trump was already sinking in the opinion polls. Think about this: Would Trump be 10 points behind Democrat Joe Biden if he had brought the virus under control quickly and efficiently, even if he had cleared Lafayette Square for a personal photo session?

It is not the violation of liberal norms that voters penalize, but the lack of courage, which is even less of an excuse for a leader who is considered to have taken draconian measures. Trump’s problem is that he offers Americans autocracy in its form and style, but not the feeling of protection that is the essence of absolute power. He is the person in power, but he is not a strong man. This means that a real autocrat could still win the electorate. Even a convincing victory by the Democrats in November would not prove the opposite. The possible liberal exultation at the election night result should be moderate.

Populists have always been faced with a strange dynamic in terms of human freedoms. They enjoy a more intrusive state in certain areas (trade, immigration, crime) but they avoid even half measures in public health, taxes and environment-related areas. The horrible monster known as “Washington” is in some way an annoying babysitter at the same time as being a landlord who is absent while the heart of the country gives way to deindustrialization and opiate abuse. The British Conservatives — the other party who made a blunder during the COVID-19 pandemic, embody this conflict as much as their cousins, the American Republicans.

There is nothing wrong with intellectual conflict. However, it is extremely important to see that from the two impulses of populism, the authoritarian and the stubbornly independent one, the second is the one that works in Trump’s favor. Voters want to open schools later, not earlier, with a 2-to-1 majority support. They were concerned about the early easing of economic restrictions in May. Fiscal transfers in a shattered economy are very popular among the voters. On the other hand, they have experienced more than three years of demagogy without turning against the president.

Knowing this, Biden is not acting as a liberal corrective of Caesar. He is simply presenting himself as a more adept executor. His administration will reassure you with its plan to increase job guarantees by reforming short-term compensation programs and others. Trump’s election opponent is focusing on the president’s carelessness regarding the virus in January, rather than his dual attitude to the rule of law. Needless to say, Biden as president would also be less of an autocrat, just as long as we don’t imagine that anybody will vote for him for that reason.