On Tuesday, Nov. 3, 10 weeks from now, there will be a presidential election in the United States. Members of the House of Representatives are also up for reelection along with one-third of the Senate. Joe Biden is the official Democratic presidential nominee and his vice presidential running mate is Kamala Harris. Donald Trump and Michael Pence will seek reelection.
According to the polls, if the election were held today, the Democrats would win by an overwhelming margin, and could even end up with control of Congress. But the election is not today, and many things can happen the more than 70 days that remain.
There is not much that can be said about Trump that would be different from our comments here over the last five years since he appeared as a candidate. He has confirmed that he is a borderline character: a narcissist, megalomaniac, swindler and a liar. If he had not been born rich and famous, he would be in jail. It’s still possible that if he’s not reelected, he could get prison time. This is why he is very dangerous. Trump knows that if he’s not able to stay in the White House, he will be wearing orange pajamas in some prison. The arrest of his initial campaign manager, Steve Bannon, on fraud charges and the court order that Trump hand over his tax records, both of which occurred yesterday [Aug. 20], should confirm for him that there is no way out.
Until the pandemic, he was seen as highly likely to be reelected. His mistakes have complicated this expectation, which is why he has started to insist that the election will be fraudulent, that mail-in voting should not happen, that the election date needs to be changed, and that he will not leave the White House regardless of the outcome. He has even tried to shut down the postal service so that voters cannot use absentee ballots. I continue to be surprised that there are those who defend him. One-third of Americans who remain racist will always support him. That people support him in other countries, including Mexico, seems absurd to me, but there are all types in this world.
I think the choice of Harris as vice president is a very good idea. You may remember that she was a candidate for president, but she had to abandon the race because she was unable to raise money for the campaign. However, she is a qualified and capable woman who could step in as president of the United States at any moment. That is very relevant today with a Biden whom many doubt will be able to complete his term due to his age, and because he seems to show some cognitive decline. This is the only way he resembles Trump. Otherwise, he is completely different: well-mannered, centrist, a negotiator.
It would be great news for the entire world if Trump failed to be reelected. That the government of the United States, the most powerful country in the world, is in the hands of someone like him is an ominous sign that is being repeated in many other countries. Although there has always been the risk of having a populist, megalomaniac president anywhere, with Trump this has become “normalized,” as they now say.
As for Mexico, it would also be very good if Trump were not reelected, if only to have a predictable neighboring government. In this election, however, I have no doubt that there will be some cost to us for a Democratic victory. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's meeting with Trump will not be easily forgotten. Also, it should be noted that the Democrats caused complications with respect to negotiations dealing with trade, labor and the environment. Those are precisely where we will have problems in 2021.
Whatever the outcome, the U.S. election will have tremendous relevance for us and we should pay attention. I repeat, there are only 10 weeks left, and Trump will do anything to avoid losing. “Anything,” for the president of the most powerful country in the world, is very wide territory.
El martes 3 de noviembre, a diez semanas de distancia, ocurrirá la elección presidencial en Estados Unidos. También se renovará la Cámara de Representantes y un tercio del Senado. Oficialmente, Joe Biden es el candidato del Partido Demócrata, y va acompañado de Kamala Harris a la vicepresidencia. Donald Trump y Michael Pence intentarán reelegirse.
De acuerdo con las encuestas, si la elección fuese hoy el triunfo de los demócratas sería contundente, e incluso podrían quedarse con el control del Congreso. Pero la elección no es hoy, y muchas cosas pueden ocurrir en los más de setenta días que faltan.
No hay mucho que pueda decirse de Trump que sea diferente de lo que hemos comentado aquí en los últimos cinco años, desde su aparición como precandidato. Ha confirmado que es un personaje de frontera: narcisista, megalómano, defraudador, mentiroso. Si no hubiese nacido rico y fuese famoso, estaría en alguna cárcel. Posiblemente todavía le dé tiempo de vivir recluido, si no logra reelegirse. Por esa razón, es muy peligroso. Sabe que si no logra quedarse en Casa Blanca, tendrá pijama naranja en alguna prisión. La detención (por fraude) de su promotor inicial, Steve Bannon, y la orden judicial para que Trump entregue sus registros fiscales, ambas cosas ocurridas ayer, deben confirmarle que no tiene salida.
Hasta antes de la pandemia, se veía con elevadas posibilidades de reelegirse. Sus errores le han complicado esa esperanza, y por eso empieza a insistir en que la elección será fraudulenta, que no debe votarse por correo, que deberían elegir en otra ocasión, que no abandonará la Casa Blanca sin importar el resultado. Incluso ha intentado cerrar el servicio postal, para que no haya voto en ausencia. Me sigue sorprendiendo que haya quien lo defiende. Un tercio de los estadounidenses, que siguen siendo racistas, lo apoyarán siempre. Que lo hagan personas en otros países, incluyendo México, me parece absurdo, pero hay de todo en este mundo.
La selección de Kamala Harris como vicepresidenta me parece una gran idea. Tal vez recuerde usted que ella era la candidata de esta columna, pero tuvo que abandonar la carrera porque no le alcanzó el dinero. Sin embargo, es una mujer preparada y capaz, que podría tomar la presidencia de Estados Unidos en cualquier momento, y eso es muy relevante hoy, con un Joe Biden que muchos dudan pueda terminar su periodo, por su edad y porque parecería tener algo de deterioro cognitivo. Sólo en eso se parece a Trump, en todo lo demás es totalmente distinto: educado, centrista, negociador.
Para el mundo entero sería una gran noticia que Trump no logre reelegirse. Que el gobierno de Estados Unidos, el país más poderoso del mundo, esté en manos de alguien como él es una pésima señal, que ha permitido su replicación en muchos otros países. Aunque siempre ha habido el riesgo de tener un presidente populista y megalómano en cualquier parte, con Trump eso se “normalizó”, como dicen ahora.
Para México, también sería muy bueno que no se reelija Trump, así sólo fuese por tener un gobierno vecino predecible. Sin embargo, en esta ocasión no dudo que tengamos que pagar algunos costos de ocurrir el triunfo demócrata. La visita de AMLO a Trump no se olvidará fácilmente. Además, hay que recordar que con los demócratas se nos complican algunas negociaciones, especialmente comerciales, laborales y ambientales. Y justo en ellas tendremos problemas en 2021.
Como quiera que sea, la elección estadounidense es de gran relevancia para nosotros, y hay que estar atentos. Insisto, faltan diez semanas, y Trump está dispuesto a cualquier cosa con tal de no perder. Y cualquier cosa, siendo el presidente del país más poderoso del mundo, es un abanico muy amplio.
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