The Unclear Future of the Middle East

Political and economic writers agree that a change in the foreign policy of any one of the three world powers, the U.S., Russia, or China, could have a direct impact on international relations throughout the world, and such a change would influence other nations’ behavior.

Every four years, the results of the U.S. presidential election and the race between Republicans and Democrats cause the rest of the world to rethink its plans for the future. With the election taking place next month, two predictions concerning the future of U.S. foreign policy have been presented. Though it is still not clear who will win the presidency, those who believe in the first prediction think that, no matter what, there will be no change in U.S. foreign policy beyond some minor reforms, and those will only be in specific areas. This is so despite the fact that much has been written about the differences between Donald Trump, who is up for reelection as the Republican candidate, and his opponent, the Democratic nominee Joe Biden, and the plans they would implement with regard to the Middle East if they are elected. The second prediction holds that if Trump does not win the election and Biden becomes president, Trump’s foreign policy moves will be reversed and a new period in U.S. foreign policy will begin. Supporters of this position believe that Trump’s foreign policy has produced nothing for the U.S. or for the international community, and because of this, as president, Biden will come into office with a new, different plan for the world. Despite this, both those who do not expect anything different from U.S. foreign policy after the results of the election, and those who predict a path that differs from the four years of Trump’s presidency, emphasize that the future of the Middle East is clouded in a particularly deep haze of ambiguity.

During his first term as president, Trump followed three main tenets in his Middle East policy. First, he prioritized swallowing up the oil wealth of Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and the other island nations in the southern Persian Gulf. This plan has been successful, specifically in selling bulk amounts of U.S. military equipment to these countries, while using the excuse of safeguarding their security against Iran to empty out their oil-filled coffers.

The second tenet of Trump’s Middle East policy involved the consolidation of the Zionist regime’s power in the region by eliminating resistance from Palestine and any other source. Trump went so far as to close the Palestinian representative office in D.C., cut off the yearly $2 million in loans to displaced Palestinians and their refugee camps, and finally announced the formal recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, along with the annexation of the eastern part of the city and the transfer of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. Then, recently, there was the political circus that was the formal reestablishment of relations between the Zionist regime and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Benjamin Netanyahu constantly repeats that Israel no longer has any issue with the Arab nations of the region, and that they must all unite against the main enemy (Iran) so that a “New Middle East” can emerge.

The final tenet of Trump’s foreign policy during his term was antagonism toward the Islamic Republic of Iran, which began at the very start of his administration with his withdrawal from the international agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. This policy has continued over the course of four years through “comprehensive sanctions” and “maximum pressure” against Iran. These days, even Trump’s supporters and his colleagues in Congress admit that this policy has not had a favorable result and has only served to harass Iran. No government has accepted the U.S.’ withdrawal from the JCPOA, not even its allies and partners in Europe. They admit that they have only opened the way for Netanyahu, who is hated so much, even within Israel. Pursuing Trump’s Middle East policy has completely isolated the U.S. in the region, to the benefit of Vladimir Putin. Trump himself has announced several times in his campaign speeches that if he is reelected, he will have a great new deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran within two or three weeks. At the same time, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo keeps repeating that the maximum pressure campaign has been successful and that the Islamic Republic has been isolated and will soon collapse!

Although he criticizes Trump’s bilateral and multilateral foreign policy decisions, Trump’s opponent, Biden, says that Trump has not only opposed China, Iran and Venezuela, but the United States’ own European allies, isolating the U.S. from the international community through the exact opposite of multilateralism.

Biden has repeatedly announced that as soon as he is elected, he will immediately return the United States to the JCPOA and that he will not continue to pursue Trump’s policies against Iran. The constantly shifting nature of the U.S. election has caused Trump to emphasize to Netanyahu in the White House that “they (Iran) certainly should wait till after the election because frankly, if Biden wins, they’ll make a much better deal, but I’m going to make a good deal with Iran. I’m going to make a deal that’s great for Iran … ” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said yesterday that “We will be ready to facilitate the beginning of this dialogue (between the U.S. and Iran) … The sanctions with which they are trying to strangle Iran have never worked; nor will they work today.”

Most governments and political experts agree that the future of the Middle East will continue to be unclear. They believe that if Trump remains president for four more years and Netanyahu stays prime minister, the Persian Gulf region and the countries located there will be facing disaster. The dimensions of this disaster are still not entirely clear, but they agree that the damage will affect the entire world.