While political and business leaders in Mexico continue to cling to the belief that Donald Trump is invincible, in the United States, it is no longer a question of if he will win, but of how badly he will lose.
The government and private sector believe that Trump’s reelection would be in Mexico’s best interest because they have an understanding with him, and think the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement will stabilize their business. They seem to ignore, however, that this deal, poorly negotiated by Mexico, goes against their own interests, especially in the automotive, agricultural, labor and environmental sectors. This deal is the result of an agreement between Republicans and Democrats, so whether Trump remains in power or Biden wins, the U.S. will implement the treaty.
Two weeks out from the election, the polls have President Trump trailing Joe Biden by more than 10 points.
The causes of Trump’s imminent defeat are:
• His irresponsible management of COVID-19, causing more than 214,000 deaths, as well as his erratic behavior. Since contracting the illness, he has been holding massive rallies where there is a high risk of infection, and
• The net job loss during the four years of the president’s administration, his ridiculous tax returns, and the abusive use of his presidential office to promote his hotels with official acts.
For many years, accusations concerning Trump had no major effect on his election chances, but the economic and health effects of the pandemic are snowballing, and signaling that, this time, the president’s administration is likely coming to an end.
As the election approaches and polls emerge daily, the projection is becoming clearer, since the constant margin of difference of more than 10 points is more than double the 3% margin of error.
Polls conducted by the The Economist and the consultancy firm FiveThirtyEight yesterday showed Biden as the likely winner with a wide lead, both in popular and electoral votes.
The Economist, a British magazine, indicates that Biden has a 92% chance of winning the Electoral College and a 99% chance of securing the majority of the popular vote.
The predicted range of Electoral College votes is 227-421 for Biden, versus 117-311 for Trump. The candidate who gets at least 270 votes wins.
FiveThirtyEight predicts that Biden has an 87% chance of winning the Electoral College, 347 votes against Trump’s 191, and 53% against 45% of the popular vote.
It is well known that U.S. presidential election is not won by the popular vote, but by the electoral vote of each state. Each state has a different number of votes, so the key is to win the states with the most electoral votes. Currently, the most contested states, those that will decide the election, are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona and Florida, the latter having the most, with 29 votes.
It is in that sense that experts say whoever wins Florida will win the White House.
According to the projected poll average in Florida, the Democratic candidate has a 76% chance of winning, and if so, the penny is about to drop, and Biden will be the next president of the United States of America in a landslide election that Trump will not be able to dispute.
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