What Do the Polls Say?

A few days ago, polls tracked by The Guardian found that Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 17 points, giving Democrats more hope. CNN concurred by estimating that Biden would cross the 270 Electoral College vote threshold and get as many as 290 electoral votes. Judging by these two announcements only, one can conclude that the Republican candidate does not stand a chance of being reelected and Biden can peacefully self-isolate at his home up until Nov. 3.*

A candidate cannot win the U.S. presidential election if he or she is falling behind by 17%. Such a difference in votes is just too big. There is no way to turn this tide even if a candidate visited every swing state and kissed each and every potential voter. Yet, in reality, things are more complicated. Most international media sources agreed with the projections made by The Guardian’s polls. The polling data aggregators, however, paint a different picture.

According to RealClearPolitics, 50% of American voters support Biden, and 42% are going to vote for Trump. This is not a particularly promising result for the current president, yet it makes his reelection much more likely. Biden is still leading and he will almost certainly gain overwhelming nationwide support. However, we do not know for sure if absolute numbers are going to help him get elected since a few key states are going to decide the fate of this election.

The main problem with American sociology during an election is that it often cannot accurately predict the outcome of the election. Right now, for example, Reuters is saying that Biden is leading by 10 points, while Rasmussen is showing that Trump is prevailing by 1%. In reality, neither of them can accurately project the outcome of this election, which creates perfect conditions for countless manipulations on both Republican and Democratic sides.

There could be a few possible reasons why the majority of polls are forecasting that Biden is going to win by a landslide. First, the Democratic candidate is more popular among American voters. On the other hand, it is unlikely that the difference between Biden and Trump is as big as the polls claim. Also, Biden’s support base is much more diverse than Trump’s, which consists of loyal and disciplined fanatics.

Secondly, none of the polls can accurately calculate the mood of undecided voters, whose voices can determine the outcome. That is why they are called swing voters, they might believe in one thing, say a totally different thing when asked in a survey, and then again change their minds before casting a ballot. Besides, undecided voters have refused to participate in surveys and polls on multiple occasions. They hate answering questions over the phone, just like some of the conservatives, who vote for Republicans.

On the other hand, progressive and young voters, who traditionally vote for Democrats, are much more vocal and willing to participate in all kinds of surveys.

In other words, one cannot be completely sure about the real level of support of either candidate. Furthermore, the closer we get to Election Day, the more actively pro-Republican polls are going to work. So over time, it might seem that the current U.S. president has a good chance of winning. However, we are not going to see a statistically significant advantage.

The week before the election is going to be a battle of polls and multiple manipulations. The majority of the U.S. media that happen to favor Democrats are going to forecast Trump’s inevitable downfall. The Republican media minority is going to enthusiastically argue for their candidate. Yet, neither candidate can be sure of his victory until the final whistle blows on Nov. 3.

However, many experts claim that we will not be able to mark the end of the election even on Nov. 4. The outcome is so unpredictable that the Supreme Court might be the one to decide who is going to be the next president. Trump is ready for this scenario. He nominated a conservative, Amy Coney Barrett, to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court. On Oct. 26, after 30 hours of debate, the Senate voted to confirm Trump’s protégé. Trump was elated while Biden was outraged. Now, the Republicans have a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court. Even if Biden becomes the next president of the United States, he will have to figure out how to work with an ultraconservative Supreme Court.

The candidates are facing very stressful days ahead. Trump is going to roam through the swing states and ramble on about his achievements. Biden, though more moderate, will also visit some battleground states and try to communicate the scale of the current administration’s failures. We are now in the final leg of the race, but the results are yet to be seen.

*Editor’s note: Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election on Nov. 7.