The Unknowns in the Election

If Joe Biden loses fair and square in the election tomorrow, which could happen despite the polls saying he is in the lead, it will be as frustrating to American voters as it will be a nightmare for the international community.

A favored candidate can still be defeated, as 2016 taught us when Democrat Hillary Clinton overtook her rival, the incumbent president, Donald Trump, by 3 million popular votes, but lost in the Electoral College.

This phenomenon doesn’t look like it’s going to repeat itself, as even the most longstanding Republican Party supporters are frankly disappointed with the current administration’s response to COVID-19.

Trump has everything to lose. However, his defeat would raise many questions. First, he has said he will not concede if he loses. And as reassurance against this anticipated challenge of election results, Trump has openly disparaged mail-in voting and questioned the highest ranking agencies in the country. This is in addition to denouncing supposed interference from Russia, China and Iran in favor of the Democratic candidate without any basis.

Trump’s loser reaction might be a mere hissy fit which he will throw to heal his wounds, but in the case of an American president, such resistance has other implications. What’s going to happen if the vote count is close, which could happen, and the results need to be settled in the courts?

In such cases, one has to consider the makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court, with six Republican-leaning justices and three Democrats. Nothing guarantees that a court ruling will supersede the political process, no matter how much one tries to reckon with the strength and independence of the institutions that have formed the basis of America’s magnanimous character. Under the current administration, there have been cases where vested interests have taken taken precedence over the law.

The outlook looks unclear if Trump, who has put all his trust in God (for lack of anything more logical) loses the vote on Tuesday. Until today, his chances were minimal, but it’s his reaction that’s worrying. It’s even more worrying when one recalls that the process attracts another unknown, which is equally as concerning, and that’s the reaction of the electorate who might eventually ignore the official results.

Recent riots surrounding racism suggest that Americans, more of whom have voted in this election than before, won’t stay calm if a verdict in the courts doesn’t correspond with their choice at the ballot box.

To avoid a bloodbath, an institutional crisis in the courts, or legal disputes, Trump supporters will have to provide irrefutable evidence for a decision that could harm Biden.