Chinese Experts’ Analysis of US-China Relations during Biden Administration

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 19 December 2020
by Su Mu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jaime Cantwell. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
In the past few days, The Global Times has organized a year-end international affairs forum, in which one topic of discussion was: "Will U.S.-China relations take a turn for the better?" The experts and scholars at the meeting spoke freely and facilitated discussion that revolved around the following points:

The majority of experts believe that after Joe Biden's administration takes office, the unpredictability of U.S.-China relations will decline, and the extremism, abysmal depth to which relations have sunk, and risk of sudden attack contained in the United States' China policy will decrease. The two countries will welcome the opportunity for mitigation, acknowledgment and cooperation.

Of course, the Biden administration will not be able to launch a China policy very quickly. Scholars have drawn an analogy between Biden's attitude toward China and the world and coming to a stoplight when driving: First look, slow down, then continue driving. Looking first refers to Donald Trump's use of Twitter-style extreme pressure coupled with dangerous uncertainty. Biden will not employ Twitter for this or use such extreme pressure; first he needs time to make a judgment. Slowing down refers to acting differently than Trump, who makes up his mind one day and does something else the next. The reason is that Biden is a mainstream leader who follows procedure. If he wants to act, he consults with government agencies and Congress if necessary. He takes actions that are low cost, high profit and produce considerable results. Continuing to drive, looking first and slowing down are all meant to lead the world once again. Of course, this process contains three steps: mending the fissures in the country, opening pathways for action, including pathways with Congress, the fierce Democratic Party faction, and the Republican opposition. Under these circumstances, the world will endure a period of reprieve, in which the U.S. will diminish its attacks on China, giving U.S.-China relations a window of time to make improvements.

Another common opinion is that after Biden takes office, United States China strategy will not undergo any fundamental changes, and the U.S. will still view China as its main competitor. There are four main reasons for this. First, China's strategic goal is national rejuvenation, and the U.S. is a "mountain" which does not allow others to pass. Second, Trump won 74 million votes, does not acknowledge his loss, and has led a movement to protest the election results, inciting anti-Biden sentiment, creating a legacy of “Trumpism,” and negatively impacting Biden's China policy. Third, Biden's diplomatic team is mostly young and strong, around 40 to 50 years old, and this new generation of American diplomats is unwilling to give China a chance. Fourth, American foreign policy is powered by two engines: American national interests and American values. The Trump era only valued American interests, but disregarded American values. After Biden takes office, American values in China policy will be revived. Thus, U.S.-China relations and even the environment outside of China, will face more severe and complex challenges.

There are also experts who think that Biden might change his methods in order to accomplish things that Trump was unable to achieve. Based on data from Biden's time as vice president, China's gross domestic product was just over $4 trillion, and now it has reached $14.4 trillion. This year, China's GDP might reach 75% of the United States’ GDP. Biden knows that he cannot use the same strategy with China he used as vice president, and also knows that Trump's approach was damaging to the U.S., so Biden will modify his policy to do what Trump failed to do, that is, to prevent China's rise.

Experts generally believe that from a strategic perspective, U.S.-China relations have an opportunity to change. Biden has stated that on his first day as president, he will bring the U.S. back into the Paris climate agreement. China has also made a commitment to carbon neutrality, so Biden will cooperate with China in this respect. Furthermore, with respect to the World Health Organization, there will be an increasing amount of opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation. Issues involving the Korean Peninsula, the Iran nuclear problem, nuclear security, energy security and other matters will also provide opportunity for cooperation. With plenty of issues facing America both domestically and abroad, there will be some strategic cooperation with China. In short, there will be some changes on a tactical level, and they will be positive.

Some commentators have pointed out that U.S.-China relations are in an uncertain stable period. The uncertainty is technical. First, the new administration will replace existing government officials such as the secretary of state and National Security Council director. Second, after Biden has formed his Cabinet, there will be policy reviews, which will require about six months. Stability will occur because in the past year, U.S.-China interests have suffered great losses, with both sides feeling great pressure and the need to converge. Thus, after Biden takes office, there will be an intermittent period in which the U.S. will be able to take a breath and China will be able to cool off. This period may require one to 1 1/2 years.

As for the future of U.S.-China relations, there are experts who think that uncertainty will remain. First, neither the U.S. nor China will change its strategic goals or policies. After the transition period, will these continue to collide? Second, it is uncertain as to how both sides will interact if they remain strategically unyielding. If they interact as they have in the past, then the period of uncertainty will only be a transition period before the U.S. and China continue their conflict, possibly exacerbating. If both sides are able to interact sensibly following this period, U.S.-China relations will improve.

As pointed out in the forum, the value to China of U.S.-China relations far surpasses the value to the U.S. Basically, as long as there is a 1% chance of improvement in U.S.-China relations, China will put in 100% of its effort and hope for success. The U.S. should also follow in this direction.


前些天,《环球时报》举办年终国际问题论坛,其中一个议题是“中美关系会迎来转机吗?"与会专家学者畅所欲言,展开讨论。有以下观点:

多数专家认为,拜登执政后,中美关系互动中不可预测性下降,美国对华政策的极端性、无底线性和突然袭击性风险下降,两国关系会迎来一个比较好的缓和、认知和合作的机会。

当然,拜登政府不可能很快推出成形的对华政策。有学者打个比方,拜登对中国及世界会采取的态度像是开车在路口面对红绿灯,一看,二慢,三通过。一看,是指特朗普推特式极限施压,有疾风暴雨式的不确定性,拜登不会求助推特,也不会用极限施压,会需要时间先看看。二慢,是指不像特朗普那样当天就变脸,明天就搞另外一套。理由是拜登是主流派,他采取走程序的办法,要采取某项措施,必须与联邦政府各部门甚至国会进行商量。他会采取成本比较小、利润比较大、产出比较可观的行动。三通过,一看、二慢都是为此服务,其目标是“再次领导全球”。当然,在这过程中他必须做三件事:弥合国内的所有撕裂;把所有的路子打通,包括国会,民主党内部激烈派别和共和党反对派。在这种情况下,全球会有一个暂缓时期,美国在减 少对中国掣肘时,中美就有了一个时间窗口。

另一个较普遍的看法是,拜登上台后,美国对华战略基本轨道不会发生“根本性转折",美国仍会把中国视为主要竞争对手。主要原因有四,其一,民族复兴是中国的战略目标,而美国是一个“山巅国”,即绝不允许别的国家超过自己。。其二,特朗普依仗7400万张选票,拒不认输,大搞“反选举结果运动”,煽动反拜登情绪,“特朗普主义"这一政治遗产,将会对拜登的对华政策略产生负面影响。其三,拜登外交团队多是少壮派,年龄都在四五十岁,美国外交领域的新一代战略人士不太愿意给中国机会。其四,美国外交政策由两个轮子组成,一个是美国国家利益,一是美国价值观。特朗普时代只重视美国国家利益而不重视美国价值观,拜登当选后,美国对华政策中美国价值观开始复苏。因此,中美关系乃至中国外部环境将面临更加严峻复杂的挑战。

也有专家认为,拜登可能要换一种方式做特朗普没有做到的事情。从数据来看,拜登任副总统时,中国的GDP才4万多亿美元,现在已达I4.4亿美元,今年中国的GDP可能追到美国的75%。拜登知道,他做副总统时对中国的方式已经行不通,同时特朗普的做法也是损害美国的,所以他要换一种方式做特朗普没做到的事情,即阻止中国崛起。

专家普遍认为,从策略上看,中美关系有转变的机会。拜登表示,他当总统第一天会带美国重返巴黎气候协定,中国也已经做出碳中和的承诺,走到美国前面了,所以拜登在这方面会同中国合作。此外,在世界卫生组织内和抗击新冠疫情问题上,中美合作的机会会增多,还有朝鲜半岛核问题、伊朗核问题、核安全、能源安全等领域,都有合作的机会。美国国内外问题成堆,在策略上会就一些问题同中国合作。总之,战术层面会带来一些变化,而且是好的变化。

有发言者指出,中美关系处于“不确定的稳定期”。“不确定”源于两个技术性原因。首先是美国政府类似国务院、国安会正司局长以上的官员全部都要更换;其次是拜登组阁后需要政策重审,这需要大约半年的过渡期。“稳定”则是因为在过去一一年,中美利益都严重受损,双方都感受到继续恶化的压力,必须有所收敛。因此,拜登上台后,中美关系会有一个“间歇期”,这对美国来说门是一个喘息,对中国来讲是“冷静处理期”。这个时间可能需要一年到一年半。

对于中美关系的未来,有专家认为会维持“不确定”的特点。首先,中美双方都不会改变自己的战略目标和政策,在过渡期后是否会继续对撞?其次,在中美双方保持战略强硬的前提下,双方如何互动也是不确定的。假如像过往那样互动,那么不确定的稳定期就是一个间歇期,中美会继续斗下去,甚至变得更糟糕。如果经过这段时期后双方能理智互动,中美关系就会出现转机。

与会者指出,中国方面对中美关系的重视,远远超过美国对两国关系的重视。“基本上就是只要有1%改善中美关系的机会,中国方面会付出100%的努力,并希望努力会成功。美国也应相向而行。”(劳木)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Topics

Poland: Meloni in the White House. Has Trump Forgotten Poland?*

Germany: US Companies in Tariff Crisis: Planning Impossible, Price Increases Necessary

Japan: US Administration Losing Credibility 3 Months into Policy of Threats

Mauritius: Could Trump Be Leading the World into Recession?

India: World in Flux: India Must See Bigger Trade Picture

Palestine: US vs. Ansarallah: Will Trump Launch a Ground War in Yemen for Israel?

Ukraine: Trump Faces Uneasy Choices on Russia’s War as His ‘Compromise Strategy’ Is Failing

Related Articles

Germany: US Companies in Tariff Crisis: Planning Impossible, Price Increases Necessary

Japan: US Administration Losing Credibility 3 Months into Policy of Threats

Ukraine: Trump Faces Uneasy Choices on Russia’s War as His ‘Compromise Strategy’ Is Failing

Hong Kong: Can US Tariffs Targeting Hong Kong’s ‘Very Survival’ Really Choke the Life out of It?

India: Greenland: How To Handle America That Wants Everything