Moscow, Beijing and Washington Have Begun To Master the World on a New Level

It is in vain that the latest Russian proposals on strategic security in Europe and the post-Soviet space are called an “ultimatum.” In reality this is a declaration of intent and a statement of the fact that these intentions will be realized one way or another. Either within the framework of agreements, or without any prior arrangement.

These proposals hardly came as a big surprise to the White House. It is almost certain that everything being actively discussed today in our country and around the world was stated by Vladimir Putin to his American counterpart during the virtual summit conducted at the highest level.

Another thing is the publication of a draft treaty on mutual guarantees of security in Europe by our foreign ministry. The unprecedented transparency at the beginning of the “substantive dialogue” has put Washington in the position of a strategic zugzwang*.

Anything you do is bad. If you refuse Moscow’s conditions, you will free it to take measures that were delicately called “military-technical” by diplomats. If you agree to at least part of the demands, you will be accused of “making concessions to Putin.” For these reasons the United States will play for time. Moreover, at the first stage, they will try to find ways to move this to a back burner. To a large extent, the White House is nudging its concerned European allies toward this tactic. It is not the first time that a solution to a serious European issue is being planned without Europe. And it’s also not as though the planned future world order, following Washington’s preference, has given the Old World much hope of preserving at least part of its current prosperity and the appearance of independence. It’s just that the European elites will have to be pacified and their agenda enacted ahead of the time originally planned.

The recently held virtual Summit for Democracy was the starting point. At the end of 2023, another forum for “Our Common Agenda” is to take place, at which this community will be reduced and streamlined. Significantly fewer than 110 countries will participate; some will not qualify for the “second round.” But some European countries in the Alliance of Democracies will be required. And they will have to be persuaded to follow the strict requirements of the “free part of humanity.” This is a difficult and delicate matter. And then the Russian approach! Just two weeks ago, Joe Biden was the savior of Europe from a big war and the defender of Ukraine from “Russian aggression.” As a reward for this, he could demand anything. Now any agreement with Moscow, even one preliminary and partial, but reached quickly, will become a liability in working with the elites of the Old World.

However, this does not mean that there is no solution to the current situation. On the contrary, all of the most important decisions have already been made. In Moscow. In Peking. And in Washington. Of the three great powers, Russia took its step last. The United States announced the creation of a new configuration of the united West in the form of the Alliance of Democracies. A course for Washington’s phasing out of the current international structures — the U.N., the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and others — was also quite clearly set forth. Jake Sullivan, the national security advisor for the U.S. president, called the new state of global governance a “mix of different structures.” According to Sullivan, the simultaneous involvement of various alliances will provide the best result for Washington.

Interestingly, Sullivan said little about NATO in his controversial speech at the Defense One online forum. This of course, does not mean that this organization cannot be part of the “mix of structures.” But it does not occupy a central place in the world as Sullivan sees it. Much more important is the Indo-Pacific area, where two new blocs are operating at once — AUKUS and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Both associations include Australia, which has concluded several military-technical contracts over the past few months, potentially leading the country to a completely new strategic level in five to six years. In addition, on the fifth continent, mining is intensifying (primarily for alkali and rare earth metals) and new industrial facilities are being built. In other words, Australia is pumping up.

This requires attention and resources, and there are no longer enough of these for other regions. In particular, for the Middle East. The quick withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the planned withdrawal from Iraq, the curtailment of military cooperation with Saudi Arabia — all of these are manifestations of the process of reducing costs in non-essential strategic areas. Paradoxically, this logic could lead the Biden administration to the almost Trumpian conclusion that NATO is “outdated,” and that Europeans need to focus more on their own security. The Old World may well be tossed aside with “project Ukraine,” and those “unable to cope” may not be taken into the “bright democratic future.”

It should not be forgotten that Afghanistan was one of the main U.S. allies outside of NATO. This official status gave it the right to much preferential treatment, which Georgia and Moldova have long and unsuccessfully tried to obtain. And for what? The country was abandoned. When Biden talked about the withdrawal of American troops, he announced that the United States could not and would not fight for democracy in countries that were not in a position to fight for it themselves. I would like to note that Europe was the same “incapable entity” for Washington 80 years ago, before the declaration of war against Nazi Germany.

In any case, the Western global elite have made their bet. The united West, or rather, the West, has reassembled for new tasks and circumstances, and is changing the vectors of strategic directions, redistributing resources and building a new model of management — technologically “mixed” and ideologically tough, “democratic.” Beijing is also implementing its new strategy. It all started 20 years ago, when China finally emerged from its shell and began a consistent economic (and in some places, and military-strategic) expansion. Already in 2012 to 2014, the Western elites became worried and began to make plans to contain the Celestial Empire. The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, at which development programs up to 2030 through 2050 were adopted, finally clarified everything.

Building the infrastructure of logistics corridors, the “Belt and Road Initiative” has spread the yuan as a world currency and Union Pay as a global payment system, which has become an alternative to VISA and MasterCard in many regions, literally building new territories in the South China Sea and creating economic expansion in Africa and southern Europe. They are all links in the same chain. The Celestial Empire is rebuilding its part of the world, albeit smaller than what Washington plans for, but still significant both in terms of territory and market size.

China is also rapidly improving its military-technical potential, which includes nuclear capabilities. With this, Beijing is also using the most modern system for early detection of foreign missile launches (primarily American ones), built by Russia for our southern neighbor. This was a strategic decision not only for our country, but also for China. To a large extent, it was thanks to that decision that the Celestial Empire officially supported all of Moscow’s demands to the United States and NATO. This is an important reason, but not the only one. Beijing has announced the inevitable and imminent annexation of Taiwan — peacefully, but without prior arrangement. The island (in fact, several islands), which will return to its native Chinese harbor, is important not only for China’s image and its military strategy, but also its technology. Taiwan is the second largest modern processor factory. And they don’t like to joke around with these “lost territories.”

I think that the Celestial Empire hopes for Moscow’s corresponding “understanding” of the new Chinese configuration in the Asian-Pacific region, in which we, in full compliance with the principles of strategic good-neighborliness, will provide for our southern neighbors within the framework of strategic technological cooperation. Simply put, if the American threat of export and technological restrictions against our country is implemented or even proposed (so far this is only a deliberate leak to the press), the Taiwan issue will be quickly resolved, and half of the world, including Russia, will use the products of the united Chinese “processor industry” …

As for iPhones … These devices using TSMC Bionic processors (made in Taiwan), of course, will eventually switch to a different element base, but they may simply disappear for a couple of years. But God is with them, with these iPhones! There is a much more serious reshaping of the world market for microchips at stake, the shortage of which has already led to chaos in many global industries — from automotive to machine tool. And by the way, will the industries remain global? All in all, things are very serious. And just as serious are the technological inventions of all the great powers. The future will depend on the success of their implementation.

The liberal elite of the United States will have to carry out their ambitious infrastructure project (in one form or another, with or without a “green” part), in order to suppress populist resistance in America and Europe, reindustrialize Australia and start mining there for alkali, rare earth metals and as many other useful minerals as the Alliance of Democracies needs; and also to reconfigure at least half of the world’s supply chains for themselves. Another task is to remove from power and replace the “wrong” people in Western countries, who are still resisting the new liberal order, without unleashing any civil wars.

Well, the Chinese Communist Party has told its members to have many offspring. Beijing needs a lot of young and active people to implement its big plans. The program “made in China” has not been canceled either. And neither has the development strategy for its domestic market of 1 1/2 billion. We should not forget about the complexity and delicacy of the processes of integrating the societies of Hong Kong and Taiwan.

At first glance, the tasks facing Russia may only seem either much more complex or much less ambitious. To date, only one issue has essentially been resolved — the military-strategic one. The framework outlined for Moscow’s national and cultural influence has yet to be filled with content — of technology, infrastructure and development and most importantly, ideology. But we cannot discount the huge reserves of our country, as well as the groundwork for the advanced development of many environments, primarily in the Arctic.

All three centers of power will have difficulties as well as their own advantages and unique resources. Moscow, Beijing and Washington have just begun to master the planet on a new technological level. On this path, tough competition is inevitable. Therefore, in the coming year we wish for our diplomats and military to agree that this competition will remain, albeit intense, mostly peaceful.

*Editor’s note: Zugzwang is a term used in chess meaning being in a position where you have to move, but every option makes your situation worse.