Keeping Calm

Talks between Russia and the U.S. about Europe’s security shouldn’t be likened to a therapy session. Firstly, there is no neutral authority that can govern the direction of the exchange. Secondly, it should still be assumed that both parties have prepared for the meeting with great analytic precision and have thought out its possible outcomes.

Both the U.S. and Russia are pursuing two goals, and each side has already achieved one of them. The Biden administration — blindsided by the severity of both Russia’s demands and Moscow’s dealings with its European partners — initially wanted to stop being on the defensive and regain the upper hand in the negotiations. That was made possible thanks to the skillful communication of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the White House. The negotiable and non-negotiable conditions have been clearly stated, the price has been named and above all, the tide has turned in favor of Europe.

Even though the European governments are not sitting at the table in Geneva, they have been involved from the beginning and will subsequently be briefed by NATO. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is also a major player, and Ukraine’s actual negotiations team, along with Germany and France, were in Moscow. Vladimir Putin has been unable to split the Europeans off from the U.S. That’s because nothing is being negotiated without the consent of all parties.

Even Russia can come away with a success. Putin’s militarily-underlined diplomatic attack has brought Russia’s relevance back into the consciousness of Americans for the first time in almost 20 years. Neither George W. Bush nor Barack Obama accepted Putin (or anyone else of the like) as an opponent to be taken seriously on the world stage. For Putin, Donald Trump was a cross between a compliant moron and an unpredictable fire-starter. The Ukraine threat has once again led to diplomatic efforts. It certainly isn’t the first time since the end of the Cold War — all previous attempts ended in disappointment.

A Test for the Kremlin Strongman’s Perception of Reality

This time, after the kick-off talks in Geneva, the world has been spared any disappointment. Both sides mercilessly abused each other with their substantial demands, which — to be generous — have the same aims: the security of Europe. Of course, the interests of both sides lie as far away from each other as the Atlantic and the Urals, and the accompanying rhetoric remained uncompromising.

However, it is important that the talks have not collapsed. Had Russia wanted to make a fool out of the U.S., this would have been an opportune moment. Had the U.S. declared the Russian negotiator incompetent, the convergence would have been all over. It is therefore good news that discussions are ongoing, which could be the prelude to an exchange about trust and perhaps even the control of arms.

Only Putin can answer the real question: Will Russia set aside its tone of blackmail and accept that other countries have a right to self-determination? The Geneva talks have not brought any clarity in this regard, and so the perception of reality of the strongman in the Kremlin, who has long been living in the uniform-clad world of Soviet czarism, is yet to be tested. The most effective means of disillusionment had, up until recently, always been the unity of the West and the authenticity of their counterthreats. Discretion and rationality are notoriously difficult to broker.