There Is a Threat of Spiraling Escalation between the West and East

American and Russian diplomats are negotiating in Geneva and Brussels over defusing the conflict in Ukraine. Still, it will be difficult: There are Russian demands that Washington cannot meet. The threat of a new Cold War is huge.

It is always good when adversaries are speaking with each other. But the talks between the West and Russia in Geneva and Brussels about a de-escalation in Ukraine and the security guarantees demanded by Moscow are ill-fated from the start. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin has forced the talks on the West through an immediate deployment of troops to the Ukrainian-Russian border.

The Americans and NATO are now talking with Moscow in an atmosphere “with a gun to Ukraine’s head,” according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Putin’s calculation is also to split the West in the process.

What can come from the talks in Geneva and Brussels? The prognosis is gloomy. A lot suggests that these talks will ultimately fail. The consequence would be a further escalation between the West and East. The danger of a new Cold War is huge.

Of course, there is leeway for compromises in certain issues, such as more transparency over military exercises or a conditional future armament of Ukraine by the West. Potentially, an agreement about bilateral deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles would even be conceivable, in the event that Russia acts first with the SSC-8 cruise missile and is also prepared to include the missiles in Kaliningrad.

But no compromise is possible with Moscow’s key demands: Agreement from NATO that it will not admit former Soviet republics; withdrawal of arms from the Eastern region and an end to military exercises; but also, agreement from Washington not to station nuclear weapons overseas. That would not only contravene the right of self-determination of sovereign states, but also harm the NATO principle of deterrence and defense.

The Kremlin autocrat is working on his legacy. Putin wants to restore the order of the Cold War in Europe and divide Europe into spheres of influence. The West cannot and will not fulfil his key demands. Incidentally, they also will not because China’s dictator Xi Jinping, also an aging revanchist, would see that as encouragement.

And then what? A collapse in talks is a loss of face for Putin and would serve as a pretense for him to teach the West a lesson in a few months and to occupy further parts of Ukraine. The Americans and Europeans will respond with firm sanctions. The spiraling escalation will have arrived.