The US Does Not Underestimate Putin’s Nuclear Threats

Joe Biden has asked Congress to allocate $6 billion in aid to Ukraine. The U.S. is concerned that Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia’s nuclear arsenal to be placed on “special combat readiness.” Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads — a greater number than the 5,550 nuclear warheads the United States has.

Will the Russian war with Ukraine escalate to the point where it becomes a nuclear conflict between the two superpowers? That would be a catastrophe of apocalyptic scale for both sides and for all of humanity. At the start of the invasion, the Russian president threatened the U.S. and NATO that if they helped Ukraine, they would face “consequences greater than any you have faced in history.” This was also understood as a threat to use nuclear weapons.

Will Russia Fire Nuclear Missiles?

When asked whether Americans should fear nuclear war with Russia, President Joe Biden responded with a firm “no.” Estimates are that the probability of both countries launching intercontinental nuclear missiles is still close to zero because they know that tens of millions of people would die on both sides. According to experts, the doctrine of “mutual assured destruction’ is still in force, a policy which prevented Moscow and Washington from pressing the nuclear button during the Cold War.

However, experts are also considering the possibility that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons, i.e., short and medium-range missiles with a smaller load, a subject for discussion following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Moscow publicly warned then about the possibility of using such weapons in order to gain an advantage on the battlefield, especially when conventional forces are not enough. As commentators in the U.S. point out, the invasion of Ukraine has met with greater resistance than Putin expected, so we can’t entirely rule out a grim, nuclear scenario. The question is whether a possible nuclear strike would be limited to Ukraine.

Putin Is Stuck Near Kyiv. Will He Stand for That?

American Russian affairs experts point to a change in Putin’s behavior. As former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice noted, until this point, Putin has been known as a balanced and rational politician, but now seems driven by emotion and paranoia. He holds talks with his closest associates, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov and Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, keeping them at a distance of a dozen feet, something that seems to confirm reports of how isolated and detached from reality he is. Fiona Hill, a leading U.S. expert on Russia, advised against underestimating the risk of Putin making a crazy move. In response to a question from Politico about whether she thought Putin would use nuclear weapons, Hill said, “The thing about Putin is, if he has an instrument, he wants to use it. Why have it if you can’t?”

On Tuesday, the Pentagon reported that a column of tanks, military trucks and armored personnel carriers at least 60 kilometers long (approximately 37 miles long) advancing on Kyiv was stalled, according to U.S. intelligence. The Pentagon also stressed that Russia is indiscriminately shelling Ukrainian cities without initial concern for civilian targets. It is possible that aggression will escalate. The massive economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its European allies are not stopping Putin, although it is believed that sanctions will gradually have more serious effects, and that the substantial foreign exchange reserves that the Kremlin accumulated before the war are expected to cushion the blow. There is growing conviction that the war will be decided on the battlefield, and therefore Western assistance in the form of weapons and equipment will be the most important factor.

That’s not so easy.

’You Have To Keep Cool’

Rep. Adam Kinzinger, one of the few Republican politicians in Congress to openly oppose Donald Trump, called for the establishment of a no-fly-zone, which would prevent Russian aircraft from bombing targets from the air. Such zones were created during the wars in Iraq over the Shiite and Kurdish regions to protect the civilian population from the attacks by Saddam Hussein. To be effective in Ukraine, however, such protection would require – as it did in Iraq – NATO aircraft to ensure that Russia complies with the ban, which could, of course, lead to direct confrontation with the aggressor. In their analysis of the situation on the front lines, retired generals, former military commanders and heads of intelligence rejected Kinzinger’s proposal as too risky. “You can’t give in to emotions, you have to keep cool,” said Beth Sanner, a former intelligence official.

Americans Divided over Sanctions on Russia

President Biden has asked Congress to allocate $6 billion in aid to Ukraine. Legislators would be expected to quickly approve the funding, since the Russian invasion has triggered a widespread outpouring of sympathy and solidarity with the Ukrainians. However, there is no total agreement about sanctions on Russia. According to The Washington Post and ABC News poll, only 67% of Americans support sanctions, and just over half say they would support sanctions even if means higher energy prices.

There is a bipartisan consensus in Congress in favor of punishing Russia, although it is unclear how long such agreement will last if U.S. oil prices, and thus gasoline prices, continue to increase as a result of the war. Oil prices are expected to soar to $150-160 per barrel if Putin turns off the oil tap in retaliation for sanctions. The opposition to sanctions, and even to further aid for Ukraine, may grow by then. Biden’s anti-Russian policy is opposed by a minority faction of populist nationalists in the GOP who remain loyal to Trump. The faction’s mouthpiece is Tucker Carlson, the most popular commentator on the right-wing Fox News station. In the Democratic Party, the left is saying that aid for Ukraine must not mean cuts to funding meant to fight poverty and homelessness at home.