Lend-Lease 2.0*

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Military historian Dmitry Boltenkov speaks about the prospects of supplying Kyiv with foreign weapons.

On May 9, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 into law. History repeats itself. Eight decades ago, in early 1941, President Franklin D. Roosevelt recognized that the U.K. had already exhausted the financial resources to purchase U.S. weapons to continue its fight against the Nazis. He understood that the USSR as well as the U.S. were about to be dragged into World War II. Thus, he came up with a plan to produce military weapons and equipment to lend or lease to American allies who were fighting against Nazi aggression. Unused weapons were supposed to be returned to the U.S. or paid for once the war was over. In this way, the U.S. economy was able to secure enormous financial resources, which enabled the production of various types of military equipment and weapons. Undoubtedly, the Lend-Lease Act of 1941 played an important role in the victory over the Nazis. On the other hand, as some historians and economists suggest, the 1941 lend-lease program helped the U.S. to finally recover from the Great Depression.

In 2022, a similar lend-lease bill was introduced by the U.S. Congress. There is nothing specific about this new lend-lease bill: it simply states that the U.S. president is given the power to allocate certain military weapons to support Ukraine and, curiously enough, other Eastern European countries. One should bear in mind that without the allocation of financial resources, this bill is no more than a piece of paper with a signature on it.

Even if the U.S. finds enough money to support Ukraine, it is unlikely that the 2022 lend-lease program will allow the U.S. to supply a significant amount of military weapons to Ukraine anytime soon.

Why? In today’s economic climate, the U.S. has experienced the loss of many military technologies. In particular, as strange as it may seem, this country is no longer capable of producing modern tanks and combat vehicles on a mass scale. There is only one tank plant left in the country that can actually repair or upgrade tanks. This plant is located in Lima, Ohio. The last M1 Abrams was manufactured more than 20 years ago. Not so long ago, the plant’s closure was stopped at the very last moment by former President Donald Trump.

In 2019, the U.S. Army formed several new tank battalions at the expense of previously existing units and by reducing the total number of tanks in the organizational structure of military units. For the same reason, one should not expect that other modern U.S. combat vehicles will be supplied to Ukraine. In fact, the U.S. itself doesn’t have nearly enough of these weapons.

As for military aviation, such as F-16s or F-35s, there is a long list of buyers for years to come. In addition, extensive international cooperation has already proved to be unreliable because Turkey was removed from the F-35 program when it bought Russian weapons. This means that there will be no Turkish components for American F-35s. It is also important to remember that it takes months to train a pilot to fly a modern fourth-generation jet fighter. Moreover, it is even more difficult to organize the operation of a maintenance complex for such an aircraft. Therefore, Ukraine will probably not see any American jet fighters in its sky.

The situation is somewhat better when it comes to heavy weapons, such as the FGM-148 Javelin (portable anti-tank weapon) and the FIM-92 Stinger missile (man-portable air defense system). The U.S. could launch the production of these weapons on a large scale. However, it will probably take a long time to complete this project because many components for these weapons come from all over the world. Furthermore, Ukraine and its patrons are becoming increasingly frustrated with the fact that existing heavy weapons suppliers in Europe often show a lack of support for their cause. Some Western weapons are currently being destroyed by Russian military forces, during the delivery or at Ukrainian warehouses, whereas others have been taken as trophies. The rest are used by Russian soldiers. Meanwhile, modern Russian defense systems proved to be more effective than the NATO generals had imagined. It has already become evident that Russian Ka-52 helicopters can withstand a dozen or so missile launches and come out of the battle unscathed after being hit by six Javelins. In addition, U.S. and NATO generals have already realized that there is not much left to supply because they are still losing many military weapons in Ukraine.

This is why the U.S. and its allies are actively providing Ukraine with all the weapons they could possibly find in their warehouses, including ancient M113 armored personnel carriers or World War II artillery systems. Moreover, the U.S. is pressuring Greece and Turkey to share their Soviet- and Russian-made weapons with Ukraine. NATO states cannot supply much of their existing weapons, either, because their own arsenals are rather limited.

For example, only about 300 PzH2000 self-propelled artillery systems have been produced. The German and Dutch armies have about 180 of them, of which only 12 will be delivered to Ukraine — seven from Germany and five from the Netherlands. It’s not even enough for one artillery battalion.

Therefore, at present and in the near future, the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 is nothing more than a piece of paper with a nice seal and a beautiful signature on it. The 2022 lend-lease program cannot fully support Ukraine, but it can increase the approval ratings of U.S. and Ukrainian presidents.

In the long run, this new lend-lease program could help the U.S. drive countries like Poland, Slovakia or Romania, as well as suppliers like Germany and France, out of the arms market. Moreover, in the future, these countries will be re-equipped with U.S. military weapons.