In Response to China-Russia Summit, Why Is the US So Careful in Its Rhetoric?

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 20 June 2022
by Chen I-hsin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Recently, the U.S. and China, and China and Russia, have been interacting frequently, and their interactions have been fiery. The U.S., however, has obviously been quite restrained, at least until now. What is the reason for this self-restraint?

On June 15, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a video call, during which both sides said they would strengthen strategic and security cooperation. While this deeply unsettled the U.S., Secretary of State Antony Blinken only called upon China not to stand on the wrong side of history. On June 16, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stressed that the U.S. has maintained a One-China policy for so long primarily to keep peace in the Taiwan Strait, and that the U.S. hopes China does not increase threats to Taiwan.

Even President Joe Biden indirectly pointed out in an interview with the Associated Press on June 17 that he decided to support Ukraine by sanctioning Russia, not from concerns about the election, but as the commander in chief of the armed forces. He further said that if the U.S. stands idly by, China might audaciously take over Taiwan, and North Korea might become even more aggressive.

Blinken understands that the relationship of strategic cooperation between Russia and China is stronger than ever and is only a thin line away from an official allied partnership. Still, with restraint, Blinken only hinted that China should not stand on the wrong side of history. On June 16, Wang Wenbin, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ironically said that the U.S. is just “whistling in the dark.”

Sullivan clarified that China’s support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not crossed a red line. On March 18, during the second video call between Biden and Xi, the U.S. requested that China not provide military or economic support to Russia, suggesting that if Beijing crossed that red line, the U.S. might lead Western countries in sanctioning China.

In addition, Sullivan did not criticize the quasi-alliance between China and Russia, instead tactfully stressing that while the U.S. adheres to a One-China policy, it hopes Beijing will lower threats toward Taiwan. Otherwise, he hinted, if China keeps coercing Taiwan, the U.S. might change its policy.

Although Blinken, Sullivan and even Biden are obviously uneasy about the strengthened relationship between China and Russia, why are they being so cautious in their rhetoric toward Beijing? First, Biden hopes to hold a third video call with Xi, and even an in-person summit with Xi in October — the first since Biden took office — to reduce tensions in U.S.-China relations.

Biden is used to creating a positive atmosphere before a summit and hopes no one will sabotage it. This is why Blinken and Sullivan did not rise to China’s taunts but chose to ignore them. Naturally, then, President Tsai Ing-wen and her officials should also be especially cautious with their words so as not to be seen as troublemakers by the U.S.

Second, on June 13 in Luxembourg, Yang Jiechi of the Chinese Communist Party Central Foreign Affairs Commission told Sullivan that China opposes defining the U.S.-China relationship as competitive and hopes that Biden will honor the Four Noes and One Without pledge. The U.S. has not sought a new Cold War, supported Taiwan independence or created a meaningless conflict with China. However, the U.S. has no way of guaranteeing that it will not try to change China’s system or seek to oppose China through strengthening alliances.

More importantly, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore from June 10-12, China’s Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe proposed that the Taiwan Strait is not international waters, a proposition the U.S. cannot support. To the U.S., the demands issued by Yang and Wei are not only exorbitant, but are fundamentally irresolvable. Thus, U.S. officials hope that verbal confrontations will not ruin the summit and that these issues can be addressed beforehand through intensive communication.

Finally, the CCP’s 20th National Congress will convene toward the end of the year. Documents pertaining to Xi’s extended term of office and to Taiwan are currently being drafted. The Biden administration does not want anything that will disadvantage Taiwan or adversely affect the development of cross-strait relations to make it into these 20 historical documents. Therefore, in the coming months, U.S. and Chinese officials will engage in intensive communication and even bargain to avoid a further enlargement of the Taiwan issue by Beijing, which would affect future U.S.-China relations.


回應中俄峰會 美為何措辭特別審慎?

最近一陣子,美中、中俄互動頻繁,三方的言語交鋒也相當火爆,但美方顯然相當節制,僅是點到為止,美國自我克制的原因何在?

中國領導人習近平15日與俄羅斯總統普亭舉行視訊通話,雙方都表示會強化戰略與安全合作,讓美國深感不安,但美國國務卿布林肯15日僅含蓄呼籲中國不要站在歷史錯誤的一邊,白宮國安顧問蘇利文16日則強調美國長期以來都維持「一個中國政策」的主要目的在於維持台海和平,希望中國不要升高對台灣的威脅。

連美國總統拜登17日接受美聯社專訪時也委婉地指出,他不是從選舉的考量,而是以三軍統帥的角度決定支持烏克蘭制裁俄羅斯,並說如果美國袖手旁觀,中國可能大膽接管台灣,北韓也可能更具侵略性。

布林肯明知中俄兩國已形成比以往更為強固的戰略協作夥伴關係,距離實質聯盟僅有一線之隔,但他卻僅低調暗示中國不要站在歷史錯誤的一邊。中國外交部發言人汪文斌16 日則反諷「美國是在走夜路吹口哨壯膽」。

蘇利文並澄清中國支持俄羅斯攻打烏克蘭,並未跨越「紅線」。拜登3月18日與習近平舉行第二次視訊峰會時,美國要求中國不要對俄羅斯提供軍事與經濟援助,暗示如果北京跨越「紅線」,可能會受到美國為首西方國家的制裁。

此外,蘇利文並未對中俄兩國的「準聯盟關係」提出任何指責,反而好言相勸,強調美國遵守「一中政策」,希望北京降低對台灣的威脅,暗示如果中國繼續脅迫台灣,美國也可能改弦易轍。

為何布林肯與蘇利文甚至拜登明明對中俄兩國進一步強化關係感到不安,但仍對北京在用辭遣句上高度審慎?首先,為了緩和美中之間的緊張關係,拜登希望能在7月與習近平舉行第三次視訊峰會,甚至能在10月舉行拜登上任以來與習近平的首次實體峰會。

拜登有一個習慣就是,希望在舉行峰會之前營造良好氣氛,卻不希望任何人對峰會「搞破壞」。此所以布林肯與蘇利文對中國的冷嘲熱諷都充耳不聞,裝聾作啞。當然,蔡英文總統與手下官員在這段期間也應特別謹言慎行,以免被美國視為「麻煩製造者」。

其次,中共中央外事辦主任楊潔篪13日在盧森堡告訴蘇利文,表示中方反對以「競爭」定義中美關係,並希望拜登落實對中國「四不一無意」的承諾。由於美國已大致做到「不打新冷戰」、「不支持台獨」與「無意與中國衝突」等三點,僅在「不尋求改變中國體制」及「不尋求強化聯盟關係反對中國」這兩點,美國實在無從保證,也不可能做到。

更重要的是,中國國防部長魏鳳和在10-12日新加坡香格里拉會議上提出「台灣海峽非國際水域」的主張,美國也不可能予以配合。對美國來說,楊潔篪與魏鳳和提出的要求不僅是「獅子大開口」,而且根本上是無解。因此,美國官員也不希望言語衝突造成峰會破局,而期盼在峰會前透過密集溝通,讓以上這些問題獲得緩解。

最後,中共二十大即將於年底召開,一些有關習近平延長任期與台灣問題的文件也正在草擬之中。拜登政府當然不希望對台灣不利或對兩岸關係未來發展可能造成負面影響的內容成為二十大歷史文件的部分內容。因此,美中雙方官員將在未來數月展開密集溝通,甚至進行利益交換,以免台灣問題被北京進一步放大而影響到未來的美中關係。
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