Beijing Judges Washington’s Deeds, Not Words*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Maxim Yusin – on the topic of American-Chinese relations.

Representatives of the U.S. and China conducted frank and productive talks on June 5; Washington let Beijing know that it will defend its interests -– the U.S. Department of State’s statement is quoted by Reuters with no further details provided. Earlier, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Daniel Kritenbrink, started his visit to China. All of this is happening with the backdrop of mutual accusations in terms of aggravating the situation in the Pacific Region. Last week, two incidents were registered at once, with the military personnel of both countries involved. As Kommersant’s columnist Maxim Yusin believes, American-Chinese relations are developing according to the same scenario today as relations between the U.S. and Russia did several years ago.

The U.S. delegation, headed by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kritenbrink, has arrived in Beijing. The goal of their visit is to clarify — and, if possible, normalize and make more predictable -– relations with China. The need for this really did emerge.

The conflict, economically speaking, between the two most powerful countries is starting to assume dangerous forms.

Last week, there were two simultaneous military incidents. First, Washington claims that a Chinese fighter jet conducted an “aggressive maneuver” near an American surveillance plane over the South China Sea. Then, a People’s Liberation Army Navy ship approached within 150 meters (492 feet) of an American destroyer in the Taiwan Strait, which risked provoking a collision.

As people in Washington are convinced, in both cases Beijing was the initiator of the aggravation. In situations where earlier, in a calmer international environment, everything went smoothly, now we see risk emerging every time. China doesn’t just refuse to avoid confrontation — it seems that, at times, it’s looking for one, as if letting the Americans know: These are our territorial waters, the zones of our special interests, you are foreign here, get used to the fact that you won’t feel as free here from now on.

There’s another warning sign: Contact between the two countries’ authorities lately has been brought to a minimum. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing has been postponed indefinitely, as well as have the visits of the U.S. finance and trade secretaries. Recently, the minister of defense of China and the U.S. Defense Secretary, who were in Singapore at an international conference, failed to conduct a meeting despite the Pentagon’s persistent requests.

With such a background it’s no surprise that the visit of the assistant Secretary of State to China became the maximum possible level of contact between the countries. It’s no more than a diplomatic routine. Serious decisions that would unblock relations are not made at this level.

What’s the reason for the current crisis? It seems that, at least rhetorically, the Biden administration is trying not to provoke China and to make conciliatory statements. But Beijing, it appears, decided to judge the U.S. by its deeds and not by its words. When it comes to deeds, the situation doesn’t look so rosy. Slowly but surely Washington is creating a network of anti-Chinese alliances in the region, bringing in not only its traditional allies -– Japan, South Korea and Australia, but also such countries as India, Vietnam and the Philippines. Under U.S. pressure, Chinese business is being pushed out of Europe.

Beijing’s attempts to build transportation and logistical routes provoke Washington’s fierce confrontations. It’s especially the case in the countries of Africa and Asia, which China is planning to include in its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. The Americans are trying to convince the authorities of these countries to change their position, as Italy has recently done -– the head of its government, Giorgia Meloni, heeded the arguments of Washington and announced the country’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative.

What is happening today with American-Chinese relations sometimes resembles the relations between the U.S. and Russia. Not in their current state but three or five or 10 years ago, when rhetorically the U.S. was talking about de-escalation, reset, and the necessity of cooperation — while in fact was tightening the economic noose around Moscow’s neck, pushing it out of the European energy market, hindering the construction of Nord Stream 2 and by introducing sanctions, which, though not as total as today, were still quite painful.

Now we witness what it has led to. The accumulated discontent, grudges, disillusion and bitterness spilled over into the Ukrainian conflict, which in many regards has become a Russian-American hybrid war.