Trump’s Defense, a Web of Lies

In the classified documents case, former President Donald Trump’s defense rests on a web of lies. His only lifeline is in the political arena.

That’s it, Donald Trump will have to face federal criminal justice. The facts revealed in the indictment are unrelenting. Legally speaking, to quote his former Attorney General Bill Barr, Trump is “toast.”

To get out of it, he will have to rely on his main assets: political polarization, his ability to make his followers swallow his lies and his aptitude for fueling cynicism.

An Ironclad Indictment

Trump faces 37 charges, notably for the possession and retention of sensitive national security documents, as well as obstruction of justice.

Virtually all of Trump’s arguments justifying his actions are refuted in the indictment, which quotes the words of the former president himself, complete with tapes.

Trump claims that he is being treated unjustly because President Joe Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence have also been caught with classified documents. This is ridiculous. Biden and Pence inadvertently kept documents, and they were promptly returned. Trump acted knowingly and refused to return multiple documents after several warnings.

Slow the Clock and Sow Doubt

One of Trump’s lifelines, should the case drag on, would be to get elected president and order the end of the trial or pardon himself. He has several ways that he could prolong the trial or even postpone it until after November 2024.

It was by chance that Judge Aileen Cannon was appointed to conduct this trial. She had already demonstrated an obvious bias toward Trump during the preliminary investigation. For Trumpists, rules and ethics only apply to other people.

The other pillar of Trump’s strategy is to hammer home his lies by accusing Biden and Hillary Clinton.

As the jurors come from a rather pro-Trump region and will have been exposed to a deluge of misinformation surrounding the case, it’s quite possible to envision a scenario where the trial is aborted or Trump is acquitted, should a juror cling to “reasonable doubt.”

A Dangerous Political Circus

Political polarization gives Trump an important advantage, with many Republicans rallying to his defense under the pretense that Biden is pulling the strings behind the accusations.

Some Republicans doubt the wisdom of endorsing such a heavily compromised candidate and even seem ready to back away from the cult of personality that their party has become, but the former president still has enough support to resist them. Democrats, for their part, are staying on the sidelines to avoid fueling the perception that they fabricated this crisis.

Trump is deploying his undeniable talents as a showman to monopolize attention and bury his critics. Above all, his secret weapon is cynicism, which leads a significant part of the electorate to believe that Trump is no worse than other politicians.

In this unhealthy political circus, Trump will probably be able to win the Republican nomination despite his legal setbacks. If need be, polarization will push Republican supporters to rally behind him, but it is cynicism — that cancer of democracy — which will give him a chance to conquer the center of the electorate.