The Worst Is Yet To Come*

While Russians have an average life expectancy similar to that of those living in the poorest African nations, the United States has gun violence death rates that are on par with failed and violent nations such as Venezuela, Yemen, and parts of Brazil. Ironically, the U.S. even has more gun-related deaths than Palestine, Somalia, or Iraq.

It’s clear that the fragmentation Russian society is experiencing is significant, and it would be absurd to overlook the importance of the war in Ukraine and its demonstration of Russian weakness, of a society in a state of free fall, from its demographic indicators to its military capabilities. But it is striking that the average life expectancy of a Russian national — even when we exclude battlefield deaths — is at the same level as the lowest-ranking African nations (64 years old), almost a full two decades lower than the most developed nations. It is a society that is fundamentally rotten at its core. A similar sense of rot, however, is taking hold of an empire that is on our side, the United States. And this American fragmentation is potentially more serious than what is happening in Russia, since we are talking about a country that is the heart of the West and critical to the international order.

Here’s an example. In 2000, the Al Gore versus George W. Bush election was ultimately decided by the courts. There were heated disputes about this process and decision, but in the end, the country accepted the court’s decision since that was an example of the rule of law at work. Can anyone imagine a Gore vs. Bush dispute in today’s post-truth context, a context in which a Trumpist America lives, literally, outside the parameters of basic rules, law, science, facts, and the Republic? Federal courts are considered illegitimate by a slice of America that increasingly looks to state power and authority for protection, which formed the logic of Confederate positions during the Civil War.

In truth, were we to have an electoral dispute in 2024 as heated as the one in 2000, I can imagine an America descending into a state of civil war, with multiplying attacks on state capitols throughout the land. I can imagine the spirit of the rebel confederacy flowing once again through the ranks of militias armed to the teeth, armed not just with weapons but also with conspiracy theories that recall the worst Nazi beliefs, with the same level of hallucination and escape from reality.

Yes, the American election in 2024 has the potential to fragment and sink the United States for a long period of time. I don’t believe secession is possible, but I think a long period of domestic terrorism is inevitable, akin to the time of fear and lawlessness in the days of Jesse James. After all, when we look at the armed attacks that have become a permanent fixture in the United States, isn’t that the kind of society we’re talking about?

While Russia has an average life expectancy similar to the poorest African nations, the United States has gun violence death rates that are on par with failed and violent nations such as Venezuela, Yemen, and parts of Brazil. Ironically, the U.S. even has more gun deaths than Palestine, Somalia, or Iraq.

*Editor’s note: The original language version of this article is available through a subscription.