The former president, who is running for another term, is breaking popularity records among Latinos and Black voters. This is phenomenal, because Republican candidates can hardly boast of significant support among voters of color, who historically have preferred Democrats due to their stance on social issues and immigration.
Meanwhile, in at least five national polls conducted within the last month, Donald Trump has the support of 20% of Black voters and 42% of Latinos, on average. To compare, in 2020 only 8% of Black voters and 36% of Latinos voted for Trump, according to the Pew Research Center.
Tim Scott, the Only Black US Presidential Candidate
According to The Washington Post, in the last 50 years no other Republican candidate has come close to having 20% support among African Americans. On average, only 9% of this voter group supported candidates from this party.
What is interesting, according to a Fox News opinion poll, is that Black voters not only favor Trump, but also favor several other Republican presidential candidates. Each of them received support at 20%. The only Black candidate, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, performed the worst, with only 15% support.
There is no guarantee that this poll sympathy will translate into concrete votes in the election. In 2022, public opinion polls were also promising for Republicans, although not as much as for Trump, but their expectations didn’t materialize in the election results.
Whether they come to fruition in the election or not, their reasons — so encouraging to Republicans — are keeping Democrats awake at night. All the more so since in the last election, they lost some votes of people of color who simply didn’t turn up at polling places. These groups have historically formed the basis of support for the party’s candidates.
Yet Democrats have been losing their support over the last decade, despite the fact that in disputes on racial issues — from the border wall to kneeling during the national anthem — they represent the side these voters support.
Democrats fear that the same lack of interest in voting for a Democratic candidate could be repeated in the presidential election. The problem may be exacerbated by Joe Biden’s weaknesses, such as his age, and by inflation, which is one of the difficulties his presidency faces, and which directly affects the average voter. Especially since the voters representing people of color are usually young people who are less well-off than white voters.
Biden generally performs poorly among underprivileged non-white voters, although for decades Democrats have enjoyed more support from lower-income voters of color than from those who are more affluent.
And then there are issues such as abortion or threats to democracy, in which Black and Latino voters do not favor Democrats; they tend to be more conservative than white voters.
As early as 2020 Biden received 79% of votes from voters identified as people of color. They were one of the greatest factors contributing to his victory in that election. But now in the polls their support for Biden ranks at about 53%; he is losing to Trump, who has 28% support in the same polls.
“If things don’t change before the presidential election, it could be that Trump’s conservative populism has changed the political sympathies of working-class voters, regardless of race or color. These voters, for material reasons, in earlier political eras have clung to the Democrats,” writes The New York Times.*
According to analysts, because of this lack of enthusiasm among voters of color, Biden and Trump go hand-in-hand in national opinion polls measuring support before the presidential election.
Biden Fights for Non-White Voters
Biden does all he can to boost his support among voters of color. Last week, Vice President Kamala Harris and members of the president’s cabinet of Latino descent attended the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Conference where they discussed the Biden administration’s actions on defending access to abortion services, health care and the creation of opportunities for legal immigration to the U.S.
The 500,000 work permits issued by the Biden administration last week to migrants from Venezuela, which is engulfed in an economic and humanitarian crisis, are also a huge nod to this social group — although Biden was more motivated by the migrant crisis in the U.S. than by his own electoral interests.
For the third time this month, Biden’s campaign team plans to run television ads targeting Latinos living in key states, such as Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, as reported by CBS News.
They are also expected to appear on online platforms in Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. The ad, titled “The Difference,” intends to show Latinos the differences between Republicans and Democrats, and convince them that Republican policies are harmful to them. The ad stresses that the choice is between cutting costs and investing in Latino communities, and Republicans, who are “working for the rich and powerful.”
*Editor’s note: Although accurately translated, this quoted passage could not be independently verified.