A poll by The Wall Street Journal in New Hampshire reported that 19% of Republicans and 66% of independent voters said they would not vote for Trump’s reelection.
First, the obvious: Trump comfortably won the Republican primary in New Hampshire with 55% of the vote compared to his opponent Nikki Haley’s 43%.
President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary, which was somewhat easier, given he had no Democratic opponents.
But it is also clear that both victories were expected, that a new edition of the 2020 election is underway, that the candidates are already defined and that most Americans wanted different candidates.
Next, the less obvious: analysts from the left and the right stressed that Trump’s win was not a landslide for such a dominant candidate. It’s safe to say he has a lot of work to do to convince nearly half of all Republican voters that they should return him to the White House.
Like other populists, Trump has a rhetoric problem: his speeches move and mobilize those who support him; but they shock and even annoy those who don’t.
A Wall Street Journal poll in New Hampshire reported that 19% of Republicans and 66% of independent voters said they would not vote for Trump’s reelection.
The obvious truth: Trump cannot win the November election without the near absolute support of Republicans and a majority of independent voters. But maintaining the support of his base, especially the Christian right and ultra-nationalist groups, is also going to require an aggressive level of rhetoric, insults and the humiliation of his opponents. But that alienates others.
Elections, especially when a president is seeking a second term, are a referendum on the performance of the person in power. In this case, Trump already lost that referendum in 2020, even if he refused to accept it, so it’s fair to consider this a new test of his character and work.
Trump’s problems have resonance for Biden and the Democrats, given the president’s difficulties in unifying his already fractured party and retaining the loyalty of groups that feel betrayed or upset by unfulfilled promises.
But it has an advantage: the focus is on Trump and the concern he arouses, considering his explicit authoritarian intentions and promises of revenge.
Democrats have been worried for months about the erosion of Biden’s coalition, largely due to low enthusiasm among young and minority voters. But early signs are that Republicans will also have trouble keeping their coalition of voters together.
Trump himself noted on Tuesday, while boasting about his victory, that keeping former governor and former ambassador Haley in the race will only divert attention and resources that would be better used against Democrats.
But Haley seems determined to move forward.
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