2024 Presidential Election: It Is Not Yet Game Over for Trump


Donald Trump’s victory over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire yesterday confirms, if need be, that he will be chosen as the Republican candidate in the presidential election. But it does not offer a clear response to a question that could decide his election to the presidency of the United States.

A significant number of Republicans and independents will not vote for Trump in November, preferring to vote for Joe Biden or a third-party candidate. Others will decide to abstain.

Here is a look at the polls to see what the future might hold.

Even before his win in Iowa, a New York Times poll revealed that Trump had less support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (86%) than Biden among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91%).

According to the Axios website, a record number of Americans, 49%, described themselves as politically independent in spring 2023. And among independent voters, polling indicates that Trump is losing support. Among them, Biden is ahead of Trump, 50% to 38%.

Independents now make up the dominant electoral bloc in the U.S., according to Gallup. Only 27% of Americans identify as Democrats now, the lowest number on record, while they’ve generally held the lead since regular polling began in 1991.

Anyone but Trump

The media focuses its attention on cultish Trump supporters, the MAGA sectarians. But within the Republican Party, there is also the “Never-Trump” camp, whom Trump refers to as RINOs, or Republicans in name only.

Another poll reveals that 43% of Haley’s supporters in Iowa have said that they would vote for Biden over Trump in the presidential election. Some Republicans are even leaving the party, disgusted by the positions and statements made by Trump, who announced his intention to run an authoritarian-style government made up solely of Trumpists as civil servants.

Biden Gains Nothing

Biden voters will choose him for lack of an alternative. He is faced with the disenchantment of a segment of Democratic voters, 37% of whom are threatening to vote for a third-party candidate or stay home in November. He has alienated some of his supporters by, among other things, his unconditional support for Israel in Gaza. His approval rating is only 33%, worse than Trump’s lowest number as president (36%) and the lowest since George Bush’s from 2006 to 2008.

Only 31% of women approve of Biden’s job in the White House, whereas 57% voted for him in 2020. But in one domain, Biden dominates Trump by 15 points: honesty and trustworthiness.

With regard to the mental acuity of Trump and Biden, voters believe both men are declining. Trump’s is lower by seven points since last May, while Biden’s has fallen by four.

Trump is still on course for the presidency, but more and more Americans appear to be simply tired of the shenanigans and chaos that he stirs.

It will be interesting to see the results of next month’s Republican primary in South Carolina, where Haley was governor.

November’s presidential election will be very tight. And Trump is already warning that he and his supporters will not accept defeat.

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About Reg Moss 120 Articles
Reg is a writer, teacher, and translator with an interest in social issues especially as pertains to education and matters of race, class, gender, immigration, etc.

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