A Swift and Historic Verdict with Uncertain Political Repercussions

Twelve jury members surprised many observers by quickly reaching a verdict in a case involving some 30 charges.

Such brief deliberations hinted at a guilty verdict, but that Donald Trump would be found guilty on the 34 counts was far from expected.

Before looking back on the trial and its possible repercussions, it is worth taking stock of what has just happened. For the first time in the history of the United States, a president has been accused and convicted of a crime.

In recent weeks, then, Trump has been found guilty of defamation, sexual assault, fraud and now a crime.

The Greatest Liar of All Time

Before and during the trial, observers and analysts identified Michael Cohen’s testimony as potentially the weakest link in prosecutor Alvin Bragg’s case.

Trump’s lawyer, Todd Blanche, targeted Cohen during closing arguments, hammering the message that he was the “GLOAT,” the “greatest liar of all time.”

Blanche likely underestimated the impact of the other witnesses and evidence presented. More importantly, he likely underestimated the credibility of his client, for Trump’s practices are well known and documented.

If there was any hesitation while awaiting the jury’s decision, it is because, to be found guilty on all counts, its members would have to be convinced of Trump’s intentions beyond all reasonable doubt.

Evidence like this is difficult to establish; it is likely that the other witnesses who spoke about the businessman confirmed his mania for scandalous dealings.

An Uncertain Political Impact

Recent polls have shown that a guilty verdict would have little influence on the electorate. Moreover, ratings on the specialty networks that focused on the trial were disappointing, revealing little public interest.

However, in a particularly tight election, the old adage that “every vote counts” cannot be ignored. If there is an effect, it will not be favorable to the Republican candidate; independent voters in swing states might opt for the incumbent Joe Biden.

Another political impact to consider? The reaction of the Republican candidate’s supporters. Convinced that Trump is the victim of a conspiracy, they revealed on Jan. 6, 2021, that they are ready for anything.