What America’s China Policy Will Be Like under Trump, Harris

On Sept. 29, the 11th session of Renmin University’s Chongyang Regional Country Forum on the United States took place, on the topic of “China-U.S. Relations: Toward a New Normal or a Bigger Storm.” The keynote speaker was Da Wei, professor of international relations at Tsinghua University’s School of Social Sciences and the director of Tsinghua’s Center for International Security and Strategy.

Da started out with an analysis of the current political situation in the U.S., saying how much attention this year’s election had garnered, and that American society was displaying unprecedented social division and political turmoil. Incidents such as attempted assassination attempts on candidates at rallies would have been rare n times gone by, but American society adapts strongly in the face of social division and political unrest, he said, and it would not be greatly affected overall.

Afterward, Da expanded on and critiqued the domestic, foreign and China policies of a new U.S. government, based on either scenario of a Democratic or Republican administration.

If Donald Trump were to take office, according to Da, he might continue to indulge the extreme anti-China politicians and scholars who surround him in their war of politics and public opinion on China. He could also resume his direct attacks on the Chinese Communist Party, as well as his political and ideological rhetoric, sparking a rush to remove “Chinese influence” from strategy, academic, media, and scientific circles. On the economic and trade fronts, Trump could rekindle his trade war with China aimed at eliminating America’s huge Chinese trade deficit and promoting the reshoring of the manufacturing industry, thus forcing China to implement structural reforms. In keeping with the tariff war, a new Trump administration would also oversee an orderly devaluation of the dollar and implement measures such as tax incentives to encourage U.S. capital to leave China.

As for Kamala Harris’ policies upon taking office and the outlook for the direction of U.S.-China relations, Da argued that China and the U.S. could move toward a type of “uncomfortable coexistence.” On the issue of trade with China, although Harris was sharply critical of Trump’s tariff policy, she had not committed to relaxing trade restrictions.

And on the issue of Taiwan, Da held that Harris and Trump had different mindsets in dealing with the problem, but that each of those mindsets posed challenges to the development of China-U.S. relations. Although Trump valued the relationship with allies in global governance, he “is not possessed of any protective desire.” Compared to Trump’s more “transactional” approach to helping to defend Taiwan, Harris would be more likely to continue Joe Biden’s Taiwan policy, meaning that the U.S. would continue to oppose any unilateral efforts by any party to change the status quo and that it would continue to support Taiwan in building its so-called “self-defense capabilities.”

Da has long been involved in research and teaching in the fields of international relations and international security. He focuses mainly on areas of research such as U.S. diplomacy and security strategy, U.S. politics and U.S.-China relations. Da has been a senior visiting scholar at the Atlantic Council of the United States, Johns Hopkins University and Stanford University. He has worked at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations for more than 20 years, holding positions there such as director of its Institute of American Studies.

Renmin University’s Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies was founded on Jan. 19, 2013. It, along with the establishment of an education fund, is a major funding project donated by Shanghai-based private equity firm, Chongyang Investment. As a new type of think tank with Chinese characteristics, RDCY has invited dozens of former politicians, bankers and renowned scholars from around the world to join the ranks of its senior researchers, with a view to focusing on reality, advising the country and serving the people.