While Trump Is Eyeing the Next 2 Years, China Is Looking at the Whole Century

Published in China Review News
(Taiwan) on 20 February 2025
by Yang Tengkai (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
According to Yang Yongming, former deputy secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council and a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, President Donald Trump is a “major deal-maker” and needs to produce results before the 2026 midterm elections. If he is unwilling to use war as a means of handling issues between China and the United States, he will certainly downplay the war factor and use it as a bargaining chip with which to make deals. The situation in the Taiwan Strait is exceedingly delicate and complicated, so Taiwan has to tread very, very carefully.

Yang holds a Ph.D. in international law and international organizations from the University of Virginia, and he has served as secretary-general of the Taiwan Association of International Relations, director-general of Taiwan’s Government Information Office, deputy secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, and as a professor at the National Taiwan University’s Department of Political Science. He is currently a professor at the Chinese Culture University’s Graduate Institute of National Development and Mainland China Studies, Taiwan, and at the National Taiwan University’s Department of Political Science, where his research interests include international law, international organizations, and various countries’ foreign policies.

The regular February meeting of the Third Wednesday Association, which consists of Taiwan’s heavyweight business leaders, was held on Feb. 19. Yang was invited to speak on the topic of “Trump 2.0 Developments and Asian Politics & Economics.”

Trump only has a four-year term, Yang said, and his approach this time will undoubtedly be different from the last one. The sole focus of Trump’s last term was China, while his second term is focused on the world. And since, under the U.S. system, Trump cannot be reelected president, he does not care who succeeds him. In terms of U.S. elections, the midterms will be in 2026, so Trump needs to scramble to have something to show for this year and next, which is actually only a very short period of time.

As Yang pointed out, Trump is now trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war, and the grand strategy in this regard is to secure the U.S.’ interests, improve U.S.-Russia relations, and turn the currently unequal triangle of the U.S., Russia and China into an equilateral one. This is the U.S.’ grand plan in terms of security, so the U.S. is now facing a critical moment.

What the next U.S. presidential election will bring is still very difficult to say, Yang stated. The Democratic Party may yet return to the White House, and even in the U.S. midterm elections, they could still gain control of the House of Representatives, so all Trump has is these two years in which to push forward with his agendas as quickly as possible, including the economy and tariff issues. But if things are handled too hastily, some backlash will be inevitable — and there are countries that are prepared to retaliate with tariffs of their own because what Trump is doing is actually rather clear to all of us.

Yang pointed out that, at this time, China is going about things steadily and surely, as it deals with its own economy, strengthens its high-tech and manufacturing industries, and handles Belt and Road operations in the Global South. At present, Trump’s America and mainland China are facing different directions: Trump’s America is only looking at the next two years, but mainland China has its eye on the entire century.

Trump does not like multilateralism, whether that means economic or security organizations, Yang said, but it does not mean that he attaches no importance to security and military issues. After all, the United States Space Force was established in Trump’s first term, and Trump is now pursuing enhanced government department efficiency, with the U.S. Department of Defense, the State Department and the military-industrial complex certain to be affected. But Trump has only two years in which to implement his policies, and supporting NATO setting up in Asia or strengthening regional military deployments are not likely to be among them.

But the most important thing, Yang argued, was the next confrontation between China and the U.S., and the key would not just be tariffs, of course, but issues including the economy, technology and military matters. The delicate and complex issue of the Taiwan Strait would come into focus, and with discussions between the U.S. and China having just started on whether to sign a fourth Joint Communiqué, it should not be forgotten that Trump is a “major deal-maker.”

Yang reported that the State Department recently removed the statement “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its official website, but that this likely represented the views of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Trump must not have read the official website article, Yang said, so the statement did not necessarily represent his policy. Ultimately, in the rivalry between the U.S. and China, if Trump proves averse to using war to settle issues, he is bound to minimize the risk of war and use that as a bargaining chip in exchange for the interests he seeks to gain.

That, Yang stressed, was why Taiwan had to “tread very, very carefully.”


楊永明:特朗普只看這兩年 中國看整個世紀

中評社台北2月20日電(記者 楊騰凱)前台灣“國安會”副秘書長、台灣大學政治學系教授楊永明表示,美國總統特朗普是“大交易者”,而且要趕在2026期中選舉前拿出成績,若他不願以戰爭處理中美問題,勢必會降低戰爭因子,並以此為籌碼交易,台海情勢非常微妙且複雜,台灣必須謹慎,謹慎,再謹慎。

楊永明為美國維吉尼亞大學國際法與國際組織博士,曾任國際關係學會秘書長、“行政院新聞局長”、台灣“國安會”副秘書長、台灣大學政治學系教授,現為中國文化大學“國家發展與中國大陸研究所”教授、台灣大學政治系教授,研究專長包括國際法、國際組織、各國外交政策。

由台灣重量級企業大老組成的三三企業交流會19日舉行2月份例會,請來楊永明以“特朗普2.0展開與亞洲政治經濟”為題進行演講。

楊永明表示,特朗普只有四年任期,他的做法絕對會和上個任期不一樣,特朗普上任期只針對中國,第二任則是針對全球,而且特朗普按照美國制度不能再選下一任總統,所以他也不會在乎是誰接他的班。在美國選舉方面,2026年會有期中選舉,所以特朗普一定要趕在這兩年內有所成就,實際上的時間非常短。

楊永明指出,特朗普目前正在試著結束俄烏戰爭,結束這場戰爭的大戰略是要拿到美國利益,改善美俄關係,讓現在不均等的美俄中三角形成為一個等邊的三角形,這是美國在安全層面的大戰略,所以美國當前正面臨到關鍵時刻。

楊永明表示,下一屆美國總統大選的情勢還很難講,民主黨仍有回歸白宮的可能,甚至在美國期中選舉當中,民主黨也可能形成眾議院的多數,一切都很難講。所以特朗普只有這兩年時間,他會盡快把一切議程往前推,包括經濟及關稅議題等等,可是事情處理得太急太快,難免會有反彈,有些國家也準備就關稅進行反制,因為特朗普的處境大家其實都很清楚。

楊永明指出,中國在這個時候的表現比較偏向穩紮穩打,一方面處理自己內部的經濟,加強高科技業以及製造業,以及一帶一路對全球南方的經營,當前特朗普的美國以及中國大陸面對的方向不一樣,特朗普的美國只看這兩年,但中國大陸看的是這整個世紀。

楊永明表示,特朗普不喜歡多邊主義,不論是經濟的組織或安全的組織,雖然特朗普不喜歡多邊主義並不代表他不重視安全及軍事議題,畢竟美國太空軍就是在特朗普第一任期成立的,同時特朗普現在正在追求政府部門提升效率,美國國防部及國務院、軍工產業一定會受到影響。但特朗普就只有兩年時間,把政策給做出來,所以特朗普大概不會還去支持組建亞洲的北約或加強區域軍事部署。

楊永明表示,然而最重要的就是接下來中美的對抗,這裡面的關鍵當然不只是關稅,其他包括經濟、科技、軍事都涵蓋在裡面,台海的問題會變成一個焦點,台海情勢非常微妙且複雜,不要忘記特朗普是一個“大交易者”,美國內部已經開始討論美中會不會簽署第四份聯合公報。

楊永明表示,最近美國國務院官網拿掉“不支持台灣獨立”的文字,但這應該是代表著美國國務卿魯比奧的意見,這篇官網文章特朗普一定沒看過,所以不見得能代表特朗普的政策。畢竟在美中的競爭當中,如果特朗普不喜歡用戰爭來處理問題的話,他勢必會把戰爭危險因子降到最低,甚至把這件事拿來當成一個籌碼,去交換他想達到的利益。。

楊永明強調,所以台灣這邊就必須“謹慎,謹慎,再謹慎。”
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